Beef production was 673K head for last week up 13K head over the 660K head from the week prior.  Liquidating continues in some breeding stock which will be affecting production over the next couple years as the herd size is reduced. With expensive feed and drought moving animals to harvest instead of continuing to feed them is often the decision.  Even with heavy production this market is moving higher.  Chuck Rolls are oversold and demanding strong premiums.  The rest of the chuck complex is moving higher as well.  Rounds seem to be pretty well balanced and with ground beef are holding steady and at reasonable price levels.  Tenderloins and ribeyes are already getting into holiday pricing levels though I’m hearing we won’t see too much more upside to these cuts but no bargains to be had either.  Strips are still the value in middle meats but they are moving a bit higher as well.  This is the time of year where buying sooner is better than waiting, you will pay more money later.  We should have this market on a steady increase right into early December. 

Episode Sources
http://www.cheesereporter.com/pricesbutter.htm

https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports

https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items

https://www.urnerbarry.com/

https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/

https://www.barchart.com/

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html

https://www.agfax.com/2022/10/24/mississippi-river-barge-traffic-continued-to-struggle-as-active-and-intensive-discussions-occur-on-black-sea-export-deal/

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The Chicken market is what I’d almost call a collapse.  Production is continuing strong, demand is not. Egg placements continue to inch up each week.  The hatch rate is inching up too putting more chickens on the market.  Wings, breast, tenders are all down again for next week.  Take advantage of these low prices but this is not a healthy level for the producers.  Now the weekly bird flu numbers.  18 new reports since last week.  Total birds removed from the food chain 168K, mostly turkeys.   total so far for the year, 47.7 million head.  Turkey shortages will be with us well into 2023.
 
Episode Sources:
https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports

https://www.barchart.com/

https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html

https://www.urnerbarry.com/

https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/

http://www.cheesereporter.com/prices.htm

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Beef production was 664,000  head for last week, same as the week prior.  Chucks and rounds have found some support with pricing more up a bit.  Roast weather is coming soon and retail feature will be pulling on these items.  

Chicken is declining again. I thought we might be close to the bottom but apparently we have a bit farther to go. Wings are down, breast and tenders down as well. We are getting to the unhealthy lows where the packers lose money on every bird that is not an incentive to keep producing.  I’ve seen lower markets thank this, but not with $7 corn. 

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Beef prices continue to move lower, but probably not for too much longer. Other than tenderloins, it's a great time to feature beef. Looking at poultry, chicken wings are still a great value, while breasts and tenders continue to go lower. As with beef, it's a great time to feature chicken. Avian flu continues to spread, totaling 421,000 birds removed since last week. This brings the total number of birds removed from the food supply to 47.1 million. Most new cases are turkeys, making this holiday season pretty tight with supply. For grains, corn is down from last week, soy oil is down, and wheat is holding steady. Pork continues to be a good value, with pricing very similar to last week. Also a great menu feature. For dairy, barrel is up three, block is up two, and butter is up seven, a new record high.

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Happy Episode 100!

This year’s avian flu continues to spread.  Since last week add 14 new reports affecting 249K birds,  most of them  turkeys and a total so far of 46.7 million birds removed from the food supply. Southern migration of wild birds from Canada going south continues to spread the virus.  We may well see cases continue to expand through the fall.   I’ve nothing encouraging to say about turkey other than if you have, value it, and if you can buy it, do.  Looking at chicken and it is the same message the last couple weeks.  Wings are steady, and still a good value, boneless breasts and tenders continue to move lower.  Production continues to creep higher every week and with weekly hatch rates now consistently over 80% more product continues into the market.  Expect chicken to continue to be a good value moving into fall. 

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This year’s avian flu outbreak just won’t let up.  With the southern migration in full swing it seems cases are picking up again.  This week, 14 new reports of bird flu affecting 265K birds, mostly turkeys bringing the total birds lost since the beginning of the year to 45.1 million.

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Saval Foodservice is proudly celebrating 90 years in business in 2022.

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Episode Sources
https://www.science.org/content/article/we-re-nervous-deadly-bird-flu-may-be-north-america-stay

https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/

https://www.urnerbarry.com/

https://www.barchart.com/

https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports

https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items

http://www.cheesereporter.com/prices.htm

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html

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A USDA report released Monday lowered harvested corn acreage by 1 million acres and lowered yield per acre estimates 2.9%.  That same report reduced soy bean acreage by 600,000 acres and reduced yield per acre 1.4%.  These reductions are attributed to hot dry weather during the last few weeks of the growth cycle.
 
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Saval Foodservice is proudly celebrating 90 years in business in 2022.

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Episode Sources:
https://www.urnerbarry.com/

https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/

https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html

https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items

https://www.foodbusinessnews.net/articles/22218-a-stunning-reversal-in-harvest-expectations

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Last week we had reports of 390K birds removed from the food supply, mostly turkeys, a worrying event and hopefully not a trend.  BUT – it is a trend.  This week we have new reports removing 3.1 million birds – 3 million egg laying chickens in Ohio and another 80K turkeys.  Seems we may be getting a double dose of bird flu this year.  Fall migration will be starting soon and this is not a great way to finish the year.  Expect an already tight supply to get tighter and prices move higher.  So far this year there have been 43.8 million birds removed from the food supply.  Looking at chicken, were the availability is strong, no avian flu reports, plenty of product, good pricing.   
Episode Sources:
https://www.provisioneronline.com/articles/113248-bacon-report-2022-all-sizzle-no-fizzle?oly_enc_id=9442E4975623E5T

https://www.wsj.com/articles/record-turkey-prices-could-make-for-a-fowl-thanksgiving-11662117778

https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports

https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items

https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/

https://www.urnerbarry.com/

https://www.barchart.com/

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html

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Saval Foodservice is proudly celebrating 90 years in business in 2022.

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Grains  Corn closed @ $7.43 just up from last week’s close of $7.35.  Initial harvest reports are a bit troubling and weather has not been helping.  There is concern yields could be substantially reduced which could be pushing prices higher once the harvest is in hand.  Something I will be watching.  Soy oil is holding pretty steady, there was a small increase earlier this week but nothing to alarming.  The soy harvest could be similarly affected  by weather as corn.  Winter wheat harvest is done, summer wheat harvest is in process and running behind.  International issues may push prices higher but right now, it looks pretty steady. 

Episode Sources
https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/swine-reports

https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items

https://www.urnerbarry.com/

https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html

https://www.aphis.usda.gov/aphis/ourfocus/animalhealth/animal-disease-information/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-2022

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Saval Foodservice is proudly celebrating 90 years in business in 2022.

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First of all, Happy Birthday to Tracy's Mother! 

On Tuesday bellies dropped $48 and with yesterday’s close at $144 has dropped $56 since last week’s close of $200.  Elevated cold storage numbers, hows that for a turn around from last year…  plus expected increasing production as the weather cools and packers are dealing with the classic issue, sell or smell it.  This is definitely a buying time.  I don’t know how long we will see this market but I’m betting we’ve got a few weeks to secure good value product.  The rest of the pork complex is following the lead of bellies but not to the same dramatic drops.  Pork will be a good value for the next few weeks, at least. 

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Saval Foodservice is proudly celebrating 90 years in business in 2022.

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Episode Sources:

https://www.porkbusiness.com/news/hog-production/pork-bellies-plummet-drag-cutout-lower?mkt_tok=ODQzLVlHQi03OTMAAAGGc6JmbpYmadAuAkEf3rK-9Vq1C43IjB0b0ldyqyDt1ER-o9RzCmVhdWz6J8POq7hzWzzXhd9e9i8krghUHbURqs-LBNDT7eFx9vCcpT-0HJvYrHc

https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/swine-reports 

https://www.urnerbarry.com/

https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/ 

http://www.cheesereporter.com/prices.htm

https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html

https://www.meatingplace.com/Industry/News/Details/106082

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