Market Updates

ASX to rise. SPI Futures up 17 points (+0.22%).

The S&P 500 hits its 35th record high this year, up 0.10%. The NASDAQ notched its fifth consecutive record high close, up 0.28%, buoyed by chip stocks. Blue chip Dow Jones edged lower, down 31 points (-0.08%). Up 279 points at best. Down 97 points at worst. Nvidia gained 1.9% after UBS raised its target, Intel rallied over 6%, and AMD gained 4%, lifting the Philadelphia semiconductor index by 1.9%. Expectations for an earlier rate cut have risen following Friday’s nonfarm payrolls, which showed US job growth slowing. Chances of a rate cut in September have risen to 72.2% from 59.8% one week ago, according to CME FedWatch. Short-dated Treasuries rise, 2Y yield rose 2.9bps sensitive to rate expectations, while the 10Y yield held steady. Bitcoin bounced, paring earlier losses on concerns about possible sales by creditors of the failed Mt. Gox exchange, and the USD Index gained 0.14%.

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The ASX200 has started the week on a negative note. Finishing down 59 points (-0.76%) to 7763 as the Materials and Energy sell-off continued into the close. The big miners were the biggest drag on the index as iron ore dropped 1.2%. High Chinese inventories to blame. BHP, RIO and FMG all down between 2.1% and 2.6%. Most other mining commodity stocks also fell, last week’s bounce very short-lived. Lithium, copper and uranium in the red. Gold put on a good show following Friday’s bond yield drop and the first quarterly production numbers. RED up 5.3% (up 9% at best), EVN up 2.5%. Oil stocks lost ground after a good performance last week. KAR and WDS down 3.5% and 1.8%.

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The ASX 200 has finished the day down 10 points (-0.12%) to 7822, holding onto most of yesterday’s gains. Healthcare was the best performing sector as CSL, COH and RMD all saw modest gains between 0.3% and 1%. Macquarie said CSL will benefit from a US$105m currency tailwind in FY26. PME managed a late bounce of 1.1% a day after its 5.1% fall. Telecoms were next best after a 0.8% rise in TLS. Tech sector up 0.42% as NASDAQ futures turned positive. MFG spiked another 4.7%. Now up 10.8% in two days. GQG briefly hit an all time high before falling 1.7%.

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The ASX 200 has finished the day up 92 points (1.2%) to 7832 as resources kicked back to life. After weeks of selling pressure iron ore giants, copper, lithium and gold saw risk-off buying. Iron ore shot to a one-month high taking BHP and RIO up 2.6%. FMG up 3.2%. Lithium stocks bounced of lows. PLS up 2.1%. LRS and LTR left behind. Positive news from the space as BYD opened the first south-east Asian factory in Thailand. SFR gained 3.2% in the copper space and weak economic data from the US took bullion higher. EVN and BGL up 4.1% and 6.5%. BGL the top performer in the index today. NST missing out only up 0.7%. REITs followed a similar logic as US bond yields fell. GMG and SCG up 2.1% and 0.6%. Oil stocks continued to do well, spurred by takeover rumours for STO, up 4.2%. Rare earths also jumped after Arafura +11% (held in Henry’s Portfolio) received approval for a $115m German loan. LYC up 2.7%. Coal stocks took a breather, NHC falling 4.6% dampening enthusiasm.

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US equities closed broadly higher in a shortened trading session ahead of the US holiday. Weak economic data reinforced bets that the Fed will start cutting rates this year sending bond yields lower and stocks higher. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ posted record-high closes for a second consecutive session, up 0.51% and 0.88%, respectively. The Dow Jones ended little changed, off 0.06%, pressured by selling in healthcare and consumer stocks. US markets closed tomorrow, keeping trading volumes thin this week. Junes FOMC meeting minutes revealed that Fed officials were divided, with some advocating patience and others emphasising the need for a weaker labour market to manage unemployment. Powell stressed the need for more definitive evidence before lowering rates, while others were open to raising rates if inflation persisted.

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Another good night on Wall Street. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ both closed at record highs. S&P 500 closed above 5,500, up 0.62%, marking its 32nd record this year. The NASDAQ rose 0.84%, supported by gains in Tesla +10.2% after reporting a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in Q2. Blue-chip Dow rose 162 points (+0.41%) in thin volume trading ahead of the July Fourth Holiday. Up 171 points at best. Down 84 points at worst. In economics, the JOLTS report showed job openings increasing in May after posting declines in the previous two months. Key June Nonfarm payrolls on Friday. Treasury yields eased a touch on jobs data and comments by Powell, who said the US is back on a “disinflationary path”, but policymakers need more data before cutting rates to confirm recent weaker inflation readings provide an accurate picture of the economy.

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The ASX 200 has finished down 33 points (-0.42%) to 7718, RBA meeting minutes passing quietly through the market while revealing a possible August rate hike. Energy was the only sector with significant gains as oil and coal stocks tracked their respective commodities higher. WDS up 3.1%, gaining strength throughout the session. KAR missing out, sold off from a positive open. Down 0.3%. WHC backed up its 6.3% rise yesterday with another 5.7% gain.

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Wall Street kicked off the second half of the year on a positive note, with equities mostly higher in light pre-holiday trading. The Dow gained 51 points (+0.13%). Up 320 points at best. Down 81 points at worst. Big Tech drove the bulk of the gains in the S&P 500 +0.27% and the NASDAQ +0.83%, with megacaps Tesla and Apple leading the way up 6.1% and 2.9%, respectively. Chip stocks came under some selling pressure, with AMD down 2.79% and Arm Holdings losing 2.93%, pulling the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index to a one-week low. Treasury yields jumped to multiweek highs, 10Y yield jumped 7.9bps rising past 4.45%. Higher bond yields typically boost US bank profits, the S&P 500 Bank Index jumped to a more than one-month high. JP Morgan +1.6% rose to an all-time high after it hiked its dividend to $1.25 from $1.15 as well as commencing a $30bn share buyback. On the economic front, US Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.5, missing expectations, falling for a third consecutive month. Another encouraging sign of the Fed’s policy is cooling the economy.

Among stocks, Nvidia (+0.62%) faces potential charges from French antitrust enforcers over alleged anticompetitive practices. Meta (+0.1%) received a warning from the EU about its subscription model for ad-free services on Instagram and Facebook, risking heavy fines. Boeing (+2.58%) agreed to buy back Spirit for $37.25 per share in a $4.7bn all-stock deal to address manufacturing defects. Chewy fell 6.61%, reversing early gains after influencer Keith Gill, known as "Roaring Kitty," disclosed a 6.6% stake in the company.

European equities rose overnight following the French parliamentary elections. The STOXX 50 rose 0.73%, STOXX 600 up 0.32%, and the CAC 40 advanced 1.09%. The National Rally Party won the first round but with a smaller share than expected, reducing fears of an expansionary fiscal agenda. The FTSE 100 closed flat, with gains in financial companies offset by declines in BAE Systems -3.41% and Anglo American -2.38%. Germany’s DAX gained 0.30%, buoyed by a positive inflation result, with annual inflation falling to 2.2% in June, below forecasts of 2.3%.

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