Market Updates

US equities kicked off the week on a positive note. The S&P 500 rose 0.77%, hitting its 30th record high this year. The NASDAQ advanced 0.95%, marking its sixth consecutive record high, buoyed by gains in large tech stocks. The Dow Jones gained 189 points (+0.49%), ending just off best levels. Up 251 points at best. Down 157 points at worst. Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index touched an all-time high before finishing up 1.60%, as funds found their way into chip stocks. Broadcom +5.4%, Taiwan SC Manufacturing +2.7%, and Micron Technology gaining 4.5% after increases in price targets by brokers. Goldman Sachs lifted its 2024 S&P 500 year-end target from 5,200 to 5,600, while Evercore ISI raised its forecast from 4,750 to 6,000. Both brokerages cited tech strength and AI optimism as reasons for their upgrades. Treasury yields climbed following several high-grade corporate bond sales exceeding $21bn, led by Home Depot. 10Y and 2Y yields up 6bps. In Fed speak, Harker stressed the Fed’s data dependence, with one cut possibly by year-end.

Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert market insights and manage your investments with confidence.

Ready to invest in yourself? Join the Marcus Today community. 

Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert market insights and manage your investments with confidence.

Ready to invest in yourself? Join the Marcus Today community. 

Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert market insights and manage your investments with confidence.

Ready to invest in yourself? Join the Marcus Today community. 

Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert market insights and manage your investments with confidence.

Ready to invest in yourself? Join the Marcus Today community. 

Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert market insights and manage your investments with confidence.

Ready to invest in yourself? Join the Marcus Today community. 

ASX 200 limped to a 34-point rise to 7750 (+0.4%), following the US higher without great enthusiasm. Jobs numbers this morning point to no reason for the RBA to cut rates. Meeting next week. Once again, it was a tale of two sectors. Banks up, and resources down. The Big Bank Basket continued to trundle higher, up to $216.44 (+0.8%) led by CBA up 1.1%. NAB is at a nine-year high, up 0.8%. MQG slipped 0.6%, and ASX fell 8.0% on a blowout in Capex. REITs once again better on lower 10-year yields. GMG up 2.3%, and VCX up 0.8%. Industrials were also firm, WES recovered another 1.2%, TCL rose 0.7% on lower rates, ‘old skool’ platforms did well, REA up 3.2%, and CAR rallied 1.1%. Tech also in demand, with WTC up 2.0% and XRO pushing 2.3% higher. The All-Tech Index up 1.9%. Healthcare better too, with CSL up 2.0% and SHL up 1.0%. A different story in iron ore with BHP and RIO both easing. Lithium and base metal stocks failed to launch following better LME pricing. Gold miners were mixed with NST down 0.2% and EVN off 0.5%. Oil and gas stocks fell, WDS down 0.9%, but uranium stocks saw a modest bounce, BOE up 1.0%, and PDN falling 0.8%. In corporate news, SIG fell 3.7% as the ACCC has some concerns about the Chemist Warehouse deal. CSR shareholders voted to accept the French takeover, ending a 62 - year run as an ASX-listed company. QAN fell 0.5% after it bought out the remaining TripADeal shareholders. TLX is in a trading halt as it finalises its Nasdaq IPO. On the economic front, unemployment fell slightly to 4%. Asian markets lower, China down 0.2%, HK up 0.5% and Japan off 0.9%. 10Y yields back to 4.21%. Dow Futures -0.1%, and NASDAQ Futures +0.7%. 

Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert market insights and manage your investments with confidence.

Ready to invest in yourself? Join the Marcus Today community. 

Wall Street ended mixed overnight. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ both posted record closing highs for a third consecutive session, gaining 0.85% and 1.53%, respectively, with the S&P 500 topping 5,400 for the first time in its history. The Dow fell 35 points (0.09%), losing its morning gains. Up 373 points at best. Down 126 points at worst. The FOMC meeting can be dubbed as a nothing burger, the Fed held rates as expected and pencilled in just one rate cut this year and forecast more for 2025, with the 2024 FOMC median dot showing 25bp of cuts vs 75bp prior, signalling no rush to cut rates. Inflation data came in cooler than expected as cheaper gas and other goods offset higher costs for rental housing, though remains too high for the Fed to start cutting rates before September. Treasury yields dropped, 10Y yield fell 8.4bps to 4.318% after hitting 4.25%, its lowest level since April 1st, and the 2Y yield eased 7.8bps to 4.756%. Market expectations for a September rate cut have jumped to 56.7%, up from 46.8% one day ago, after rising to ~70% in the wake of inflation data, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool.

ASX SPI up 52 Points

COMMODITIES

• Copper prices rise as cooling US inflation boosts rate cut hopes.
• Oil settles up on Mideast tension, gains curbed as interest rate cuts pushed back.
• Gold pares gains on reduced rate cut bets after Fed verdict.
• Iron ore struggles for direction as China data counters soft demand outlook.
• A fifth of copper smelting capacity suspended in May, data shows.
• Strong imports drive surprise crude stock build, fuel inventories also rise, EIA says.
• Gold rush to endure through 2024 though $3,000 mark may prove elusive.
• US imposes sanctions on several Hong Kong, UAE firms for dealing with Russian-origin gold.

Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert market insights and manage your investments with confidence.

Ready to invest in yourself? Join the Marcus Today community. 

ASX 200 lost another 40points to 7716 (0.5%) ahead of Fed meeting and US CPI.  Once again, resources were the biggest culprits as iron ore remains under pressure, BHP fell 0.6% and RIO off 1.5% with base metals falling, S32 continues to soften down 0.8% and PLS falling 2.9%. Uranium stocks on the nose as spot prices head lower, BOE down %, DYL down % and NXG falling hard. Gold miners were mixed to weaker, NST down 0.7% and NEM off 0.5% with gains in EMR. Oil and gas slightly higher as WDS put on 2.6% on a broker upgrade. Banks were a little sloppy with the Big Bank Basket down to $214.33 (-0.5%). CBA down 0.7% and NAB down 0.4%. MQG off 0.7% with REITs slipping, SCG off 0.6% and GPT falling 1.4%. Industrials weaker again, WES off 1.3% with utilities slipping, ORG off 0.9% and Tech off slightly. The All-Tech Index down 0.6%. Retail mixed as JBH up 1.9% with PMV off 0.5%. BAP had a good day, up 1% as brokers speculated that there could be competition for the company. In corporate news, SUL appointed a new chair. Talk on the impending GYG float with one research house questioning the valuation. On the economic front, Chinese prices rose less than expected in May. The CPI rose 0.3% from a year earlier. In Asia, Japan slipped 0.7%, HK dropped 1.1% and China up 0.2%. 10-year yields steady at 4.29%.

Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert market insights and manage your investments with confidence.

Ready to invest in yourself? Join the Marcus Today community. 

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite rose to fresh closing records on Tuesday, led upward by Apple. The 30-stock Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 120.62 points, or 0.31%, to end at 38,747.42.

ASX SPI down 36

• Oil settled slightly up on forecasts for strong global demand.
• Gold edges up as investors eye Fed outlook, US inflation data.
• Iron ore tumbles to 2-month low on concerns over weakening China demand.
• Copper hits seven-week low on weak China indicators and strong dollar.
• OPEC sticks to 2024 oil demand growth forecast but trims Q1 view.
• Saudi crude oil exports to China to fall for 3rd straight month in July.
• Red Sea ships attacks push 47% more crude oil, fuels around Africa.

Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert market insights and manage your investments with confidence.

Ready to invest in yourself? Join the Marcus Today community. 

ASX 200 fell 105 points to 7753 (-1.3%) as banks pulled back from record highs and resources came under pressure on commodity price drops on US data. Iron slipping badly towards $100, BHP down 1.8%, RIO down 1.9%, and FMG off 3.2%. Base metal stocks were badly mauled, S32 off 5.2% and PLS falling 3.8%, with other lithium stocks similarly afflicted. Gold miners also whacked on bullion falls, NST down 5.1% and NEM off 3.3%, with EVN down 6.5% and DEG down 6.2%. Oil and gas stocks also fell, with WDS off 0.4% and STO down 0.8%. Uranium stocks fell hard, BOE down 5.3% with PDN sliding 5.5% and coal stocks also in trouble, WHC down 3.9%. Banks slid slightly, with the Big Bank Basket down to $215.40 (-0.7%). WBC and NAB down 1.0%, with MQG falling 1.2%. Insurers down too, with QBE off 1.2% and ASX falling 1.4%. REITs suffered as bond yields rose, 10Y yields hit 4.31%. GMG falling 1.6%, SGP down 2.6% and SCG off 2.8%. Industrials down too, TLS fell 1.1%, with WOW and COL off as utilities eased back. ORG down 2.6%, and APA falling 1.3%. Healthcare offered no harbour, CSL off 0.9%. Tech eased, with the All-Tech Index down 0.5%. In corporate news, BAP rose 14.0% on an approach from Bain Capital at 540c, AGL fell 1.7% spending $150m to take a 20% stake in Kalauza. Saaint Gobain bid for CSR gets FIRB approval. On the economic front, business confidence fell back into negative territory in May. Asian markets mixed again, with China back from a holiday for Dragon Boat Festival down 1.9%, HK off 1.2%, and Japan down 0.2%. Dow Futures down 20 points. NASDAQ Futures down one point.

Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert market insights and manage your investments with confidence.

Ready to invest in yourself? Join the Marcus Today community.