The ASX 200 rose only 4 points to 7199 (0.1%) after a promising start was ambushed by resource stocks falling. Lithium and gold stocks fell with some of the big lithium names seeing selling resume. PLS down 3.0% as a new chair was appointed. MIN off 1.1% and AKE up 1.0%. Iron ore stocks stalled, BHP down 0.4% and RIO unchanged. Gold miners eased back as bullion suffered from the higher USD. NEM down 1,2% and NST off 2.1%. Oil and gas saw some buying, WDS/STO both slightly better with KAR up 0.5%. Banks up but off highs with the Big Bank Basket stable at $182.79. MQG fell 0.1% and insurers eased back slightly. Healthcare was better with CSL and RMD up 0.3% and REITs mixed, GMG down 0.4%. Industrials flat amidst pockets of strength, WES up 1.1% and WOW up 0.8%. Tech mixed with the All-Tech Index unchanged. In corporate news, PGH saw another bid from Kin at 84c, up 22.6%, BUB unchanged on a trading forecast update, CGC fell 3.9% as the outlook dims, SKC has settled with Macquarie over its car park stoush. In economic news, immigration targets the big news today. IEL fell 2.2% on the news. Asian markets mixed with China and HK still weak. 10-year yields around 4.33%.

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Wall Street closed higher Friday with notable gains for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, reaching their highest closing levels since early 2022, up 0.41% and 0.45%, respectively. The Dow finished near highs, up 130 points (+0.36%). Dow up 179 at best. Dow down 56 at worst. The rally was sparked by robust non-farm payroll and unemployment data, fuelling optimism for a soft landing, while also scaling back expectations the Fed will cut rates in March. Bonds were sold off, pushing yields higher again. 10Y and 2Y treasuries up 11bps. Among stocks, Paramount jumped 12% after reports of takeover interest. DocuSign rallied 4.8% after raising its annual revenue forecast, and Honeywell dipped 1.6% after it announced it would buy Carrier Global’s security business.

ASX 200 SPI Futures up 16 points.

• Base metals mixed. Nickel +2.09%, Aluminium +0.12%, Zinc -0.58%, Lead +0.27% and Tin +0.04%.
• Copper up 1.28%, lifted by firm demand from China.
• Gold down 1.11% as the US greenback and Treasury yields strengthened.
• Brent Crude and WTI oil prices rose 2.17% and 2.74%, but ended the week lower, marking its seventh consecutive weekly decline.
• 10Y Bond Yields – US 4.231%, Australia 4.359%, and UK 4.024%.

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Wall Street rallied overnight after Google and AMD triggered a mega cap rally on renewed optimism surrounding artificial intelligence. The Dow gained 63 points (+0.18%). Up 110 at best. Down 32 at worst. The S&P 500 halted a three-day decline, up 0.80%, and the NASDAQ gained 1.37% to mark its highest close of 2023. US Treasuries were subdued, 10Y yield finished little changed after an initial rise on hawkish signals from the BoJ. China lithium prices were down another 4.83%, gold was flat, and the USD Index fell 0.54%. Among Stocks, Google gained 5.3% following the launch of Gemini, saying the new AI model could narrow the gap in the race between OpenAI. Advanced Micro Devices rallied 9.7% after the company estimated the potential market for its data centre AI chips could reach $45bn this year.

ASX to slip. SPI Futures down 15 points (-0.21%).

• Base metals mixed. Aluminium -0.47%, Zinc -0.54%, Lead -0.44% and Tin +0.18%.
• Lithium continues its downward trend, down 4.83%.
• Iron ore remains elevated, up 1.11%
• Copper halted a three-session decline, up % helped by strong Chinese export data and a weaker USD.
• Nickel up 1.48%, as Nickel stocks in warehouses registered with LME rose to 10-month highs.
• Gold flat in the run-up to US non-farm payrolls data.  
• US 10Y yields fell 0.2bps to 4.119%, holding steady near three-month lows ahead of jobs report tomorrow.

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ASX 200 fell 5 points to 7173 (-0.1%) in a day of consolidation. Plenty of corporate news around, from Chemist Warehouse's reverse takeover to MFG FUM and MGF deal. Plus, we saw a bid for PPT up 6.7%. Banks eased back slightly, with NAB down 0.4% and MQG down 1.4%, with the Big Bank Basket steady at $181.97. Insurers fell heavily as yields slipped to 4.28% in the 10s. QBE down 2.8%, and SUN down 1.8%. REITS mostly formed though GMG fell 0.7%. Healthcare eased back, with CSL down 0.4% and RMD off 0.6%. Industrials were lower, BXB down 1.0%, ALL off 1.2%, and TLS fell 0.3%. Tech mixed, All Tech Index up 0.4%. Resources were mixed again, iron ore miners better, RIO up 1.0% and FMG up 1.6%, with BHP lagging on some C-Suite changes. Lithium stocks pushed higher as PLS continued its rally up 5%. MIN up 1.7%, and IGO rallying 2.7%. Gold stocks struggling to gain traction, EVN trying to stabilise up 1.4%. Uranium stocks remained under pressure after BOE acquisition and placement. Oil and gas are remarkably stable, WDS up 0.4% and STO rising 0.7%. In more corporate news, 4DX readies $30m placement, rumours that WDS and STO have been exploring a merger. SWM announced its CEO was stepping down and GQG partners revealed FUM grew US$9bn. In economics, our trade surplus widened in October on exports driven by metal ores and minerals and a decline in imports. Asian markets eased again, with Japan down 1.2%, China off 0.2% and HK off 1.3%. Dow Futures down 26 points. NASDAQ Futures down one point. 

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Wall Street finished lower near worst levels, pulled back by mega-caps and energy stocks after signs of a cooling job market reinforced bets the Fed could start cutting rates early next year. The Dow Jones fell 70 points (-0.19%). Dow up 168 points at best. Dow down 100 points at worst. S&P 500 lost steam amid a slide in energy producers, down 0.39%, with 7 of the 11 sector indices lower led by energy -1.67% and tech -0.76%. The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite slid 0.58%, and small caps Russell 2000 fell 0.21%. 10Y yields extended their decline down 5.9bps to 4.121%, while the 2Y yield edged slightly higher. ADP employment data provided fresh evidence of labour market weakness following yesterday’s JOLTS report. WTI Oil fell below $70 a barrel -4.13%, its lowest since early July, on demand concerns and increased supply shown in an EIA report. Among stocks, mega cap tech stocks showed weakness, with Google, Apple, and Microsoft losing between 0.6%-1%.

ASX to fall. SPI Futures down 34 points (-0.47%).

• Euro Area retail sales rose by 0.1% in Oct-23, falling short of the expected 0.2% increase.
• Copper fell For a third consecutive session, down 0.73%, touching a two-week low as the USD firmed.
• Dalian Iron ore rose 1.64% on positive economic data and persistently strong demand from China.  
• Golf firms 0.39% as treasury yields ease, stabilising after a rapid fall from a record high earlier this week.
• Lithium down again, off 4.61%.
• 10Y yield: US 4.121%, Australia 4.245%, and Germany 2.199%.
• Brent Crude and WTI sharply lower, down % and % respectively, hitting June lows following EIA reports of a larger-than-expected rise in US gasoline inventories, raised demand concerns.

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ASX 200 romped ahead by 117 points to 7178 (+1.7%). All is forgiven after the losses of yesterday, even lithium staged a significant comeback. This despite falls in international lithium stocks. AKE up 3.0%, PLS up 5.6% with some large blocks traded, MIN rose 4.2% with iron ore miners not even stirred by news from RIO on Simandou, RIO up 0.7% and BHP rising 1.5%. Base metals better, Gina will be happier as LTR rose 6.1% and CHN up 10.8% on access permits. Gold miners mixed with EVN dropping 13.0% on the placement and acquisition fallout. Looks overdone. NST up 1.0%, and oil and gas stocks rallied too. WDS up 1.1%, and BPT rising 1.4%. BPH continued to backfill down 9.6%. Banks shot up, with NAB leading the way, up 1.9% and CBA up 1.6%. The Big Bank Basket up to $182.15 (+1.6%), with MQG up 1.8%. REITs kicked, GMG up 1.8% and SCG up 3.7%. 10-year yields down to 4.3%. Other financials also doing well, PPT up 6.3% and MFG up 3.6%, with its latest FUM up despite outflows. Healthcare better, CSL rallying another 1.7% with RMD up 0.9%. Industrials firmed across the board, TLS up 1.9%, TCL up 0.7% and staples rallying hard, WOW up 1.9% and COL up 2.4%. Tech sparking higher, WTC up % and XRO up %. The All-Tech Index up 1.7%. In corporate news, EVN was the standout story, Chemist Warehouse is heading for a reverse takeover listing through SIG. EDV held an update with a hotel earnings target of $150m. WDS signed a sales deal with Mexican Pacific. On the economic front, GDP expanded 0.2% in the third quarter, less than the previous quarter’s 0.4% and consensus. Asian markets firmed, Japan up 1.8%, HK up 0.7% and China down 0.1%. Dow Futures up 64 points. NASDAQ Futures up 66 points. 

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US equities ended mixed while treasury resumed their rally following fresh economic data reinforced bets the Fed will cut rates in Q1 of next year. The Dow Jones fell 80 points (-0.22%). Dow down 194 points at worst. S&P 500 ended marginally in the red, down 0.06%, and the NASDAQ gained 0.31%. Treasuries fell after job openings data hit its lowest since March 2021. 10Y yields down 8.2bps breaching 4.2% levels, and the 2Y yield fell 4.6bps to 4.587%. Key non-farm payrolls report out Friday, which will offer more insight into the health of the labour market. Bitcoin is up 4.8%, Gold eased 0.48%, and the Aussie dollar fell sharply, down 1.03% to 65.51US Cents. Among stocks, the tech sector outperformed as treasuries dipped Nvidia and Apple gained over 2% each, while Amazon and Telsa rose over 1% each.

ASX to rise. SPI Futures up 27 points (+0.38%).

• Base metals down.  Zinc -1.84%, Aluminium -1.03%, Lead -2.03%, and Tin -0.56%.
• Nickel fell 2.88%, continuing its downward trend on expectations of excess supply.
• Copper is down 1.46%, hitting its lowest level in two weeks after Moody’s cut its outlook on China’s credit rating.
• Dalian Iron ore fell 0.91% on lingering fears over China’s supervision of the markets to ensure price stability.
• Oil prices lower, hovering around five-month lows on a stronger USD and demand concerns. Brent Crude -1.32% and WTI -1.07%.
• 10Y yield: US 4.180%, Australia 4.315%, and Germany 2.249%.

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ASX 200 fell 63 points to close at 7062 (0.9%) on weaker international leads and falling commodity prices. RBA left rates unchanged again, but limited ASX reaction.  Resources hit hard with iron ore miners under pressure, BHP down 1.3% and FMG off 0.9%, Lithium stocks remain depressed with IGO falling 6.7%, PLS down 8.5% and MIN copping a 4.3% fall. Gold miners retreated from the heady times of yesterday with NST down 4.0% and NEM slipping 2.7%.  EVN raising $525m for an acquisition. Oil and gas stocks also fell hard as crude failed to launch, WDS down 2.7%, STO off 0.9% and coal stocks also down. Industrials held up in places, WOW and COL showed modest gains, WES fell only 0.6% despite its lithium exposure, tech saw profit taking, WTC down 1.0% and XRO off 1.0% with the All-Tech Index down 0.8%. Healthcare better with RMD up 1.8% as the recovery continues. Banks eased back slightly with the Big Bank Basket down to $179.29c. MQG fell 0.7% and insurers eased back again. In corporate news, ORG returned after the cunning Plan A was rejected by Aussie Super and rallied 2.2%, CMM dropped 8.4% on some director selling, same with 360 falling % and MSB returned from its 150th capital raise and dropped 18.0%. MPL up 0.3% on an agreement to increase stake in My Health. On the economic front, the much-anticipated Xmas present from Michele was delivered with a pause in rate rise. Not much movement on this AUD slid around 0.5% and 10-year yields at 4.41%. Asian markets weaker with Japan down 1.1%, China off 0.8% and HK down 1.8%.

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