Market Updates

All three major US indices advanced overnight, with the Dow finishing near best levels up 295 points (+0.82%), up 314 points at best. S&P 500 achieved its highest close for the year, up 0.59%, and the NASDAQ rose 0.55% starting December on a positive note following Powell’s latest comments bolstering the view that policy rates have peaked. Powell, despite expressing the Fed's readiness to tighten further if necessary, noted that policy is currently in "well into restrictive territory," leading to a decline in bond yields, with the 2Y yield down by 15bps and the 10Y yield down by 12.9bps. Gold and base metals experienced an uptick due to a weaker dollar, while oil prices continued their decline post the OPEC+ meeting on Thursday. Among stocks, Alibaba slipped 1.2% on broker downgrades, and Paramount jumped 9.8% after reports Apple have discussed bundling their streaming services at a discount.

ASX SPI Futures up 65

• Base metals are higher across the board. Nickel +2.59%, Aluminium +0.64%, Zinc +2.20%, Lead +0.05%, and Tin +2.62%.
• Copper rose to an almost four-month high, gaining 2.09%.
• Brent Crude down 2.0%, and WTI fell 1.89% on Friday after a volatile trading week following the latest rounds of OPEC+ production cuts and sluggish global manufacturing activity.
• 10Y yields: US 4.213%, Australia 4.400%, and Germany 2.359%.

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ASX 200 fought from early big falls to close down only 14 points to 7073 (-0.2%). Banks flat, the Big Bank Basket at $178.32 (-0.3%). MQG slid 0.8%, with other financials pulling back slightly. Insurers held in, with SUN up 0.2% and MPL up 2.0%. REITs mixed, GMG up 1.3% and VCX down 2.1%. Healthcare flat, Industrials saw some losses in staples, WOW off 1.0% and COL down 1.0%, with WES off 0.9%. Tech eased, XRO down 1.9% and WTC falling 1.0% with the All-Tech Index off 0.5%. In resources, Iron ore slightly better, BHP up 0.1% and FMG up 0.8%. Lithium stocks falling again, PLS off 0.8% despite a new substantial shareholder, gold miners mixed, NEM up 0.9% and NST down 2.3%. Oil and gas slid on OPEC Plus news, WDS down 0.5%, and STO off 0.1%. In corporate news, MSB tapped shareholders yet again, it must be Xmas after all, PMV posted record Black Friday sales rising 2.8%. COL got the ACCC thumbs up to purchase Sapputo’s milk facilities. In economic news, Chinese manufacturing PMI came in better-than-expected at 50.7. In Asia, not much happening, Japan +0.3%, China down 0.5% and HK down 0.8%. 10-year yields 4.499%. Dow Futures up 19 points. NASDAQ Futures down 34 points.

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The Dow hit a new high for the year, up 520 points (+1.47%), driven by a 9.2% jump in Salesforce shares and a moderation in PCE inflation. The S&P 500 gained 0.38%, while the NASDAQ fell 0.23%. October saw a slowdown in PCE inflation measures and a moderation in personal spending, reinforcing expectations that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle, potentially leading to rate cuts in spring 2024. US treasuries lost steam after a historic rally, with the 10Y yield up 7.9bps and 2Y yield up 6.2bps. November marked the strongest performance for the S&P 500 +7.8%, NASDAQ +8.9%, and Dow +8% since late 2022. Among stocks, Nvidia weighed heavily on the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, falling 2.8%. In contrast, data cloud company Snowflake advanced 7.1% on better-than-expected Q4 product revenue forecasts, while Ford slipped 3.1% after setting the cost of a new labour deal at $8.8bn and cut its full-year forecast.

ASX to fall. SPI Futures down 9 points (-0.13%).

• Base metals fell as the USD firmed, and weak China manufacturing data weighed on prices. Nickel -3.09%, Aluminium -0.88%, Zinc -1.08%, Lead -0.86%, and Tin -1.02%.
• Copper hovered near 10-week highs, up 0.42%.
• Oil prices fell after OPEC+ producers agreed to cut oil production for the first quarter of next year. Brent Crude -0.24% and WTI -2.45%.
• 10Y yield: US 4.342%, Australia 4.510%, and Germany 2.455%.
• Gold fell 0.41% in response to a rebound in the greenback.

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ASX 200 finished up 52 points at 7087 (+0.5%) after a late afternoon surge.ASX 200 up 4.6% for November. A turnaround in the iron ore miners helped on news that nickel from Indonesia would not get a IRA break. BHP up 0.2%, RIO up 0.4% and FMG up 0.9%. Lithium turns around too, with PLS reversing early losses to close up 2.3%, with gold miners steady despite seeing some profit taking in places. Oil and gas were in pause ahead of OPEC, coal stocks eased. Meanwhile, Banks once again pushed ahead, CBA up 1.3% and the Big Bank Basket up to $178.88 (1.2%). MQG spurted ahead by 2.1%, with insurers doing well. QBE up 1.3% and SUN up 2.5% on its bank appeal. Healthcare better overall, with CSL unchanged after a good day yesterday, RMD up 2.3%. REITS slightly better SCG up 0.8%. Industrials firm TLS up 1.1% and staples higher, WOW up 1.8% and COL up 0.9%. Interest rate sensitive stocks doing ok, TCL up 1.0% and AIA up 1.0%. Tech also in demand, WTC up 1.2% and XRO up 1.0%, with the All-Tech Index up 1.0%. In corporate news, ORG knocked back Plan B, falling 1.9% in the process. IRE jumped 14.9% on an update. LTR rose 2.2% on a new director appointment. In China we saw some disappointing economic data, and we await the virtual OPEC meeting. Asian markets firmed Japan up 0.3%, China up 0.1% and HK up 0.1%. 10Y yields falling down to 4.38%. Dow Futures up 134 points. NASDAQ Futures up 32 points. 

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The ASX200 rose 20 points to 7035 this afternoon as an inflation optimism rally faded. Technology was the stand-out, gaining all day on hopes the RBA will halt rate rises next year. WTC, XRO and NXT up 2%, 2.9% and 1.4%. Discretionary spending, REITs and Gold sectors also rallied in a similar vein. WES, JBH, HVN up 1%, 2.3% and 4.2%. NEM and EVN flew 5.4% each. Healthcare enjoyed strong demand from the open with CSL and RMD up 2.1% and 2.5%. Banks were mostly down. NAB, WBC and ANZ all lower while CBA and MQG stayed flat. Energy stocks were the worst performers as investors go risk-off ahead of Thursday’s OPEC+ meeting. WDS, STO and KAR down 0.7%, 0.9% and 2.4%. Big miners also fell as Dailian Iron Ore Futures dropped for the fifth straight session. BHP and FMG down 0.5% and 0.4%.

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Vale Charlie Munger

 The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 83.51 points, or 0.24%, to close at 35,416.98. The S&P 500 inched higher by 0.10% to 4,554.89, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite.

SPI up 15.

• Base metals mixed. Zinc +0.65%, Aluminium +0.34%, Lead +-0.35%, and Tin +1.33%.
• Nickel prices jumped +5.87% after an industrial report raised the prospect of a change in the way top supplier Indonesia prices the metal.
• Copper prices rebounded on news of disruptions at major mines in Panama and Peru raising supply concerns, up 1.27%
• Oil prices settled higher overnight, on the possibility OPEC+ will extend or deepen supply cuts. Brent Crude +1.96% and WTI +2.19%.
• 10Y yield: US 4.332%, Australia 4.453%, and Germany 2.491%.
• USD Index fell 0.41%, its lowest point in 15 weeks, and on track to end the month ~3% lower.

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ASX 200 clawed back some losses closing up 28 points to 7015 (0.4%). Early euphoria gave way to apathy again. Banks were a strong sector with the Big Bank Basket up to $177.31 (0.8%). NAB leading the charge up 1.2% and MQG managing to eke out a 0.1% rise. QBE and insurers flat, REITs did well as yields fell again, GMG up 1.3% and SCG running hard up 2.0%. Industrials too doing ok, WOW up 0.9%, TCL unchanged as Rozelle Interchange opens up. QAN up 0.4% and TLS pushing ahead. Tech stocks eased, WTC down 0.6% and XRO falling 0.8%. Utilities mixed as ORG fell again. Iron ore stocks tried valiantly to rise early but gave way to gravity with BHP down 0.2% and RIO off 0.3%. FMG clearly didn’t get the memo rising 1.5%.  Iron ore in Asia fell 2% on intervention talk. Lithium stocks mixed, PLS up 0.9% and MIN down 1.2%. Some action in second liners but low volumes. Hold miners once again in demand, NST up 3.5% and finally NEM up 0.6%. Oil and gas fell, Coal mixed. In corporate news, IMU rose 9.9% on positive drug news, PLT rallied 64.7% on solar panel and car loan news, PBH jumped 5.5% on revenue update, CKF rose 9.0% on results and a dividend increase. Did someone say KFC? Asian markets eased, Japan down 0.3%, HK off 0.5% and China unchanged. 10-year yields back to 4.51%.

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 56.68 points, or 0.16%, to 35,333.47. The S&P 500 shed 0.20% to 4,550.43. The Nasdaq Composite edged lower 0.07% to 14,241.02.
Wall Street is coming off its fourth straight positive week, as stocks have rallied since the 10-year Treasury yield retreated from the 5% mark it briefly topped in late October.

ASX to edge higher. SPI Futures up 8 points (+0.11%).

Base metals mixed. Copper -0.73%, Aluminium -0.29%, Zinc -1.12%, Lead -1.55%, and Tin -4.61%. Gold +0.62% hit a six-month higher as a soft dollar and fed pause expectations helped bullion prices consolidate above the key $2,000 mark. Nickel (-2.16%) fell to a three-year low at $15,840 a ton. Oil prices continue to fall ahead of OPEC+ meeting Thursday. Brent Crude down 0.67%, and WTI down 0.50%. 10Y yield: US 4.383%, Australia 4.473%, and Germany 2.543%.

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ASX 200 frittered away early gains to close down 53 points at 6987 (0.8%) in a mixture of apathy and low volumes. Iron ore weakness in Asia the turnaround, as China authorities move to more supervision on stockpiling and hoarding.  BHP, RIO and FMG all took on water down around 1.5%, lithium stocks depressed again, PLS down 2.5%, IGO off 3.3% and MIN off 2.6%. Gold miners were one of the few sectors doing well, GMD up 3.8% on AGM comments NST up 1.7% with NEM still struggling down slightly. Oil and gas stocks weaker ahead of OPEC Plus. Banks fell with CBA off 1.0% and ANZ down 1.1% as the Big Bank Basket fell to $(). MQG slid 0.6% with insurers steady after QBE rose 2.2% on a premium update. Healthcare fell, CSL under pressure again, down 0.7%, REITs slid, GMG down 0.3%, tech better led by WTC and XRO up 1.6% and 0.4% respectively. Retail and staples also eased, WOW down 0.9%, WES off 0.6% and QAN down 0.8%. Utilities under pressure as ORG look to Plan B and C. In corporate news, ABY knocked back an offer from a UK company, HLS rallied 2.3% on the chair resigning. On the economic front, Michele Bullock has a new No 2. Asian markets weaker, Japan down 0.6%, HK off 1% and China down 1.2%

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Wall Street finished little changed overnight in a holiday-shortened trading day following the Thanksgiving break, with low volume and conviction as markets watch the beginning of seasonal shopping for signs of consumer resiliency. The Dow finished near session highs, up 117 points (+0.33%). Up 126 points at best. The S&P 500 finished flat, and the NASDAQ fell 0.11%. All three indexes notched their fourth consecutive weekly gains. The latest economic data in the US paints a mixed picture, with Manufacturing PMI contracting more than expected and Services rising at a faster pace than expected. US Treasury securities booked some losses, pressuring tech stocks, with Meta, Apple and Microsoft all lower. Among stocks, Nvidia fell 1.9% on delays in the launch of its new China-focused AI chip designed to comply with US export rules.

ASX SPI Futures up 20 points.

• Base metals mixed. Copper +0.25%, Aluminium -0.16%, Zinc +0.45%, Lead -0.90%, and Tin 0.93%.
• Nickel (-2.38%) fell to a two-and-a-half-year low, falling below $16k/t during trade, coming under pressure from a looming market surplus and a build-up on short positions.
• Iron ore +0.28%. Iron ore Futures on the Singapore Exchange is up 10% this month on hopes that Beijing will kick start the property sector.
• Lithium fell 2.25%, hitting a 26-month low after a trial delivery of the metal to Guangzhou Futures indicated a larger-than-expected supply in the world’s top producer of the metal.

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