Market Updates

The ASX 200rallied 33 points to 7279 (+0.5%), bouncing back from 7,232 lows following the RBA’s decision to hold rates at 4.1%. The Aussie dollar fell 0.2% to 66.58c, and the 2Y yield was virtually unchanged, up 1bps. Gold miners are happy, buoyed by stronger bullion prices. EVN up 1.8%, NST gained 1.6%, NCM up 1.2%. Iron ore miners mixed as US manufacturing PMI fell, and optimism was buoyed by the RBA, BHP lower 0.1% and RIO down 1.2%. Lithium was mostly up as PLS gained 2.2% and SYA rose 3.0%. Base metal stocks rose on the back of higher copper prices overnight. Banks had a good day. Big Bank basket closed up at $174.87 (+1.3%), led by CBA up 1.3% and NAB up 1.3%. Energy stocks were in demand thanks to Saudi Arabia and Russia cutting oil production, sending prices higher, WDS up 1.4%, WHC gained 2.4%, and BPT rose 1.1%. Healthcare under pressure, RMD down 1.3% and SHL off 0.8%, while insurers found support QBE gained 1.0% and MPL up 1.7%. In corporate news, CGC jumped 12.8% after receiving a takeover bid, EMR up 5.9% on gold discovery, SUN gained 0.6% despite announcing the cost of reinsurance premiums to increase more than $250m in FY24, IVC down 0.2% after extending TPG exclusivity offer, and SLR gained 5.8% on record quarterly sales results. In economic news, the RBA decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 4.1%. Further tightening may be required, but the decision to hold provides the board more time to assess the state of the economy and economic outlook and associated risks. Asian markets down. Japan down 0.6% on profit-taking, while HK is on track for a third consecutive day of losses, down 0.1%, and China off 0.2%. Australia 10Y yield up to 4.01% after a steep fall on the pause announcement. Bitcoin down 0.33%. Dow Jones futures down 10 points and Nasdaq futures down 18 points.

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Wall Street closes higher overnight in a holiday-shortened session kicking off the second half of the year on a positive note ahead of the US July 4th holiday. Dow Jones virtually unchanged, up 11 points (+0.03%). Dow at best up 58 points. Dow at worst down 121 points. S&P 500 gained 4.75 points, up 0.12%, ending at 4,455 points, while the NASDAQ rose 0.21%. Treasury yields edged higher, with a widely watched section of the yield curve hitting its deepest inversion since 1981. The US greenback marginally higher ahead of key US data this week, including June’s payrolls report, while oil prices settled down. Among stocks, shares from rate-sensitive sectors lower after ISM PMI data showed that US manufacturing contracted more than expected. Tesla +6.9% after it said it delivered a record number of vehicles in the second quarter, and shares in heavyweight banks such as Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs gained 1.7% and 1.3%, respectively, after raising dividends and passing the Feds annual health check.

ASX 200 to open lower. SPI Futures down 1 point (-0.01%).

• Gold continued up 0.1% overnight, due to weaker economic readings from the US.
• Copper rose 2.64% overnight as inventories fell and optimism boosted prices.
• Nickel +0.07% Aluminium -0.09% Zinc +1.32%, Lead +1.6%, and Tin +4.89%.
• WTI Crude fell 1.35%, and Brent dropped 0.6% despite possible production cuts from Saudi Arabia.
• 10Y Bond yields: US 3.85%, Australia 3.98%, and Germany 2.44%.

Coming Up: RBA Interest rate decision Today, FOMC Minutes and both the US and  Australia's Balance of Trade on Thursday, US Unemployment rate on Friday

• Domestic data: RBA Interest Rate Decision.

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ASX 200 closed up 43 points to 7246 (+0.6%), supported by a rise in commodity prices, starting the new financial year off in the positive, extending gains from the previous session. At best ASX 200 up 51 points, at worst down 4 points. The Gold sector performed well today supported by the rise in bullion prices a sign market participants are positioning themselves for a potential rate hike from the RBA tomorrow. Australia’s largest gold miner NCM jumped 2.5% marking its best day in more than four weeks. Tech the worst performing sector today, with the All-Tech Index down 0.6%. Banks also posted some gains ahead of tomorrow’s RBA decision, with rate hikes likely to be paused. ANZ leading the charge, up 0.8% and CBA up 0.7%. The Big Bank Basket is at $172.67 (+0.6%). REITs higher as bond yields steadied.. Resources doing well on commodity prices, Iron ore miners gained, BHP up 0.6%, RIO up 0.7% and FMG up 0.4%. Lithium also up today with LRS and LTR up 7.8% and 0.7%. Healthcare having a mixed day as CSL dropped lower, down 0.4% and RHC gained 0.8%. Energy stocks mixed up as oil prices steadied after record losing run, STO +1%, BPT +1.9% while STX fell 1.1%. In corporate news, PSI down 10.4% after responding to ASX’s query. UMG up 8.6% after accepting an offer to be acquired by Malteries Soufflet at 500c. NWH dropped 1.6% despite their subsidiary being awarded a $973m contract by Northern Star. In economic news, Australia’s building permits rebounded sharply in May surging 20.6% MoM, recovering from a 6.8% fall in April. Job ads in Australia fall 2.5% MoM in June, but on an annual basis job ads fell 10% but remain 45% above pre-pandemic levels. Australian home loans rose 4% in May, reversing a 3.8% decline in April. Lastly, China’s manufacturing growth slows less than expected with Caixin China General manufacturing falling to 50.5 in June from 50.9 in May above consensus of 50.2. Asian markets are up, Japan up 1.4% boosted by tech shares, HK up 1.9% reversing losses from the previous two sessions with China up 1.4% despite underwhelming economic data. Australian bond yields dip ahead of the RBA’s interest rate decision tomorrow. 2Y yield down 17bpd to 4.17%, and the 10Y yield fell 5bps to 3.97%. Bitcoin up 0.3%. Dow Jones futures down 25 points and Nasdaq futures up 8 points.

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Dow Jones up 285 points (+0.84%). Up 345 at best. Up 148 at worst. NASDAQ +1.45%. S&P 500 +1.24%. One newswire describes the last day of the half-year as the “Cherry on Top”.

SPI Futures are up 29. The ASX 200 was up 104 points or 1.47% last week. The Tech sector led the ASX this week, with the Banks up 2.48% and REITs up 2.63% as a better-than-expected CPI number reduced the chances of an RBA rate rise next week (not by much) and kicked off a Financials and Consumer Discretionary rally (+2.82%).

Big Tech lead the market. Apple up 2.3%, hitting a record high and crossing the $3 trillion market cap line. Banks are following through after the positive reaction to the stress test this week. Most industrials higher. Gold and lithium stocks higher. Bond yields dipped on better-than-expected PCE price index numbers. So did the US dollar index. Still thought to be not good enough to prevent the next Fed rate rise. 90 fell 2.6% on results. Volume was a bit below average. The US has a holiday coming up on Tuesday and closes early on Monday. A lot of people be on holiday next week.

• Wall St rallies; Nasdaq hits 40-yr milestone, Apple scales $3 trillion
• Wall St ends strong quarter with broad rally, dollar dips as inflation cools
• U.S. yields slip on cooler-than-expected PCE data
• US consumer spending hits speed bump; inflation picture mixed
• Yellen sees strong job market, lower inflation, even as US economy cools
• Biden's student loan defeat adds to headwinds for US economy
• Apple's market value ends above $3 trillion for first time
• Goldman Sachs may exit partnership with Apple – WSJ
• Copper down 1.06% declining 7.7% for the quarter and marking the first period of loss in 3 quarters.
• Nickel +2.56% Aluminium -0.62% Zinc -0.95%, Lead -0.84%, and Tin +0.27%.
• WTI Crude gained 1.16%, and Brent rose 1.48% on supply concerns.
• 10Y Bond yields: US 3.84%, Australia 4.01%, and Germany 2.39%.\

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ASX 200 closed with a modest gain of 0.12% to 7203, up 8 points as EOFY came and went. For the week the index is up 103 points or 1.5%. A mixed session with Resources slightly firmer, BHP up 0.1% and FMG up 0.3% with lithium stocks drifting higher, PLS up 1.2% and IGO up 1.2% Gold miners were mixed and oil and gas stocks better, WDS up 0.5% and STO rising 0.8%. Coal miners mixed, WHC down 1.3% and YAL up 1.8%. In the banks some slippage with the Big Bank Basket unchanged at $171.69. MQG bucked the trend up 0.8% and insurers flat. MPL slipped 0.3% on another class action. And fund managers squeezed slightly higher. PNI up 1.7% and MFG up 0.3%. REITS fell today across the board as yields rose, GMG down 0.3% and GPT off 0.2%. Healthcare eased back, CSL down 0.3% and COH down 0.2%. Tech rose with the All -Tech Index up 0.5% led by WTC and XRO again. Telcos slid, TLS off 0.5% and TPG falling 1.2%. Industrials better, BXB up 0.4%, CPU rising 0.6% and retailers finding support, JBH up 0.8% and CTT pushing another 5.1% ahead. On corporate news, LNK fell 13.9% as it lost the HESTA account, BUB unchanged on a China update, DOW up 4.3% after sealing a new contract to build trains for QLD. Not substantial on the economic front, US core inflation numbers tonight. In Asia, Japan gave back some recent gains, down 0.3%, and China and HK better.

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose on Thursday as big bank names gained after passing the Federal Reserve’s annual stress test, and a revised upward GDP print alleviated some recession fears on Wall Street.

The 30-stock index jumped 269.76 points, or 0.8%, to finish at 34,122.42, lifted by major bank names. The S&P 500 added 0.45% to end at 4,396.44, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite closed flat at 13,591.33.

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ASX 200 closed down 2 points to 7195, sinking from early gains after Retail sales show signs of resistance, coming in at 0.7% for May compared to 0.1% forecast. Consumer discretionary had an obvious boost from the higher retail numbers, EDV up 0.6%, DMP up 2.1%, and BBN jumped 7.4%. Banks continued to rally, ANZ gained 1.2% and MQG rose 0.7%. Big Bank Basket up to $171.55 (+0.55%). Energy stocks gained as US inventories declined more than expected. STO +0.7% and BPT +0.8%. REITS lower. Healthcare stocks were mostly flat, RMD up 0.8% and RHC down 1.8%. Resources lower as base metals dropped overnight on China demand speculation. Iron ore dropping, BHP -1% and RIO -1.2%. Gold continues to be sold off, nearing four-month lows. NST -1.7% and EVN -2.1%. In corporate news, MAH +19.2% upgraded their earnings guidance as cost inflation recovers and secures more contracts.WBT dropped 11.4% even as their ReRAM product has been fully qualified. In economic news, Australian retail sales beat estimates growing 0.7% for May, compared to a forecasted growth of 0.1%. Job vacancies in Australia fell by 2% for the quarter still high compared to pre-pandemic levels as employers struggle to hire and maintain employees. Asian markets mostly lower, Japan down 0.1%, HK down 1.3%, and China down 0.1%. Bitcoin up 0.33%. Dow Jones futures up 4 points and Nasdaq futures up 12 points.

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US equities finished mixed overnight. Blue chip Dow Jones closed down 72 points (-0.22), weighed down by healthcare stocks. Dow at worst down 171 points. S&P 500 was essentially unchanged, down 0.04%, and the NASDAQ gained 0.27% after Powell reiterated that interest rates would rise further this year and that he did not see inflation falling to its target rate this year or next year. US treasuries softened ahead of Friday's PCE price index results, and the greenback strengthened on Powell’s tough talk. Among stocks, Nvidia fell 1.8% after the US government is considering restrictions on exports of AI chips to China and Netflix gained 3.06% after Oppenheimer raised its price target.

European markets higher overnight near best levels, STOXX 50 +0.9%, FTSE +0.5%, CAC +1%, and DAX +0.6% as strong economic data on Tuesday soothed recession jitters, even as Lagarde warned that there is still not enough evidence of inflation cooling down. 

• SPI futures down 5 points (-0.07%)
• Gold down 0.32%, to a near 4-month low after hawkish comments from the Fed.
• Copper down 1.13% after weak industrial profit numbers were released from China yesterday.
• Nickel -3.23% Aluminium -0.84% Zinc -0.86%, Lead -0.93%, and Tin -0.55%.
• WTI Crude gained 2.75%, and Brent rose 1.48% after a bigger than expected decline us US Crude inventories.
• Bond yields declining globally overnight - 10-year yield: US 3.71%, Australia 3.85%, and Germany 2.31%.

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ASX 200 closed up 78 points to 7197 (+1.1%), boosted by cooler-than-expected inflation results. The Aussie dollar fell to 66.43c (-0.6%), and the 2Y and 10Y bonds took a hit following inflation results, before closing down 6bps and 5bps, respectively. Interest rate-sensitive sectors performed well. Consumer discretionary the best-performing sector today WES up 1.3%, JBH up 2.5%, and SGR jumped 11.5%. Banks rallied, with the big four all gaining over 1%, with NAB the standout up 1.9%. Big Bank Basket up to $170.62 (+1.4%). Energy stocks are up on higher oil prices as WTI crude futures rose above $68 a barrel. STO +1.2%, WDS +1.1% and S32 +1.1%. REITS gained as treasury yields fell. Defensive sectors outperformed. Healthcare stocks were mostly better, RMD up 1.1% and RHC up 4.8%. Industrials were strong today, WOW up 0.3%, and ELD up 5.2%. Travel stocks enjoyed a small rally, FLT up 3.1%, KLS up 1.0%, and WEB up 2.8%. Iron ore better, BHP +0.7% RIO +1.0% and FMG +0.3%. Gold was sold off, nearing three-month lows after strong economic data from the US overnight and today’s CPI result. NST -1.0%, EVN -0.9%, and PRU -1.2%. In corporate news, LRS +18.4% confirmed the presence of a significant lithium corridor at its Salinas Lithium Project in Brazil, QAN +3.2% onits management reshuffle, PBH +0.6% board unanimously recommends Fanatics Betting and Gaming’s improved proposal of US$225m to acquire PointsBet’s US Business, HVN up 4.9% on solid preliminary results, and COF +1.8% completed $225m of debt refinance and divests Clarke St property in Canberra for $23m. In economic news, Australia’s headline inflation came in at 5.6%, significantly below consensus of 6.1%, down from 6.8% in April. Core inflation fell to 6.4%, slightly lower than April’s 6.5%. China’s industrial profits fell 18.8% YoY, the decline followed a 20.6% plunge in the prior period as a softening demand squeezed margins reinforcing hopes of more policy support to bolster economic recovery. Asian markets subdued, Japan up 2.0% as the Yen nears a 15-year low on a rising euro, HK flat, and China up 0.1% after Beijing fixed the currency lower than many expected. Bitcoin down 0.42%. Dow Jones futures down 5 points and Nasdaq futures down 44 points.

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Wall Street closes higher overnight, ending near best levels. Dow Jones up 212 points (+0.63%). Dow at best up 261 points, snapping a six-day losing streak. Tech megacaps led the round, with the NASDAQ up 1.65% and the S&P 500 up 1.15%, halting a two-day drop. Upbeat economic data eased recession fears while the dollar softened, and US treasury yields edged higher. European markets up on bets that further stimulus from China is coming. STOXX 50 +0.6%, FTSE +0.1%, CAC +0.4%, and DAX +0.2%. SPI futures up 26 points (+0.37%).

Economic data: Orders for US manufactured durable goods unexpectedly rose 1.7% MoM in May, significantly beating expectations of a 1% fall, marking a third straight month of rising durable goods orders, helping soothe worries over a looming recession. US housing market regaining strength, with sales of single-family homes up 12.2% MoM of 763k, reaching its highest level since February last year, beating consensus of 675k. US June consumer confidence printed at 109.7, well above consensus for 103.9, its highest level since January 2022, reflecting improved current conditions.

• Gold down 0.49%, as US Consumer Confidence climbed to the highest level in almost a year and a half.
• Copper down 0.48% as stimulus packages in China were offset by demand woes.
• Nickel +2.34% Aluminium +1.95% Zinc 2.19%, Lead +1.13%, and Tin +2.24%.
• WTI Crude fell 1.97%, and Brent dropped 2.55% ahead of US consumption data and the possibility of further rate hikes.
• 10-year yield: US 3.77%, Australia 3.94%, and Germany 2.36%.
• VIX down 3.6%.  
• Russell 2000 +1.46%
• Money markets pricing in a 76.9% chance the Fed will hike rates by 25bps at July meeting.
• Meta up 3.8% after Citigroup raised its price target on the stock.

Catch up on all the latest with Henry Jennings on today’s Pre-Market Podcast.

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