Market Updates

The NASDAQ and S&P 500 rallied overnight up 1.53% and 0.93%. S&P 500 logged its fourth consecutive weekly gain on Friday and entered a new bull market.  The Dow closed near session highs, up 190 points (+0.56%). Dow at best up 201 points. US treasury yields and the dollar flat ahead of inflation data and interest rate decisions later in the week. Oil stumbles closing at its lowest level since December 2021 on demand concerns and rising global supplies. Tesla rose 2.2% rising for 12 consecutive trading sessions, a record for the electric car maker. Apple and Microsoft rose ~1.5%, with YTD gains reaching 41.45% and 38.37%, respectively. Oracle hit a record high after JPMorgan hiked its price target, closing up 5.9%.  Oracle is up 6.58% in extended trade after the company exceeded Q4 revenue estimates with revenue growth of 17% to US$13.84bn.

Aussie market to open higher, SPI futures up 25 points (+0.35%). European markets up across the board, STOXX 50 +0.6%, FTSE +0.1%, CAC, +0.5%, and DAX +0.9%. VIX up 8.53%, its highest level in a week.

• Target rate probabilities for upcoming FOMC meeting according to money markets: 79.1% HOLD up from 70.1% one day again.
• Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is up 3.3%, bringing its recovery to ~44% in 2023.
• Broadcom jumped 6.3% after reports the chipmaker was set to gain conditional EU antitrust approval for its $61bn proposed acquisition of VMware.
• MSCI’s gauge of global stocks gained 0.66%, hitting its highest level since April 2022.
• US FTC Seeks to Block Microsoft's Acquisition of Activision.
• Nasdaq to Acquire Adenza for $10.5bn.
• Bond Investors Cautious Ahead of Fed Policy Decision.
• Trump Arrives in Florida to Face Charges, Maintains Lead in Poll.
• US House Republicans at Odds Over Government Spending.
• Global Stocks Gain, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Reach Highest Levels in Over a Year.
• Biden Administration diplomacy Slows China's Military Expansion.
• Ukraine Recaptures Villages from Russian Forces in Counteroffensive.
• UBS Completes Takeover of Credit Suisse, Forms Wealth Management Behemoth.
• Electric Vehicle Charging Companies Consider Tesla Standard.

Catch up on the latest news with Henry Jennings’ Pre-Market Podcast.

Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and research and become a better investor.

Make life simple. Invest with Marcus Today.

ASX 200 closed up 23 points at 7123 (0.3%). For the week it has fallen 23 points from 7145. A better day all around with Banks better led by ANZ up 0.8% and WBC rising 0.3%. The Big Bank Basket up $164.10 (0.1%). Insurers firmed slightly and fund managers better.  REITs were mixed after the drubbing yesterday with GMG bouncing 1.1% on the tech rally. Tech stocks back in favour with WTC up 2.6% and XRO up another 2.7% with the All-Tech Index up 0.8%. Even Old Skool tech, REA and CAR rallied up 0.8% and 2.6% respectively. Consumer stocks had an end-of-week bounce, ALL up 1.5% and TLC +1.4% in demand.  DMP up 1.1% as some short covering held. Resources were firm, iron ore miners up again, BHP up 1.3% and RIO up 0.5% with lithium stocks making some headway, MIN up 0.9% and IGO up 2.5%. Gold miners better too, NST up % and EVN rising %. Oil and gas going nowhere and coal flat.

In corporate news, some board changes at FMG, banks have passed on the rate increase quickly. Just not to deposit holders.

On the economic front, economists jumping over themselves to predict higher and higher rates and CBA downgraded GDP and increased odds of a recession. In Asia, Chinese PPI dropped substantially. Asian markets in the green, Japan up 1.8%, HK up 0.2% and China flat again. Dow futures down 66 Nasdaq down 4.

Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and research and become a better investor.

Make life simple. Invest with Marcus Today.

US stocks closed higher overnight on positive of jobless claims suggesting a cooling of the US labor market. Dow up 169 points (+0.5%). Dow at best up 209. Dow at worst down 35 points. S&P 500 up 0.62% hitting a fresh closing high for the year. NASDAQ led the market up 1.02%. VIX Volatility Index fell to a fresh post-pandemic low, down 2.1% ahead of an eventful economic and policy calendar next week. US treasury yields edge lower, 10Y yield down 6.6bps, 2Y yield off 3.3bps, while gold prices steadied up 1.45% following the previous day’s 1.18% fall.  Meanwhile, the USD Index fell 0.73% and the Aussie dollar was flat. ASX to rise today, with SPI futures up 29 points (+0.41%).

In European markets, STOXX 50 +0.1%, FTSE -0.3%, CAC +0.3%, and DAX +0.2%. Money markets pricing in a 72.2% chance of the Fed pausing next week compared to 79.6% just a week earlier. Tesla shares up 4.58% on news GM will join Ford in adopting Tesla’s charging plug standard and give GM electric vehicle buys access to Tesla’s network under an agreement. Gamestock fell 17.9% on poor sales results and the dismal of its fifth CEO in five years.

HEADLINES

• GM adopts Tesla's charging system, praised by Wall Street.
• Carvana shares surge on positive Q2 outlook.
• US unemployment claims reach 1.5-year high with caution due to Memorial Day.
• IMF advises continued tightening by Fed and central banks to reduce inflation.
• US household wealth hits one-year high driven by stocks and Treasuries.
• Bunge finalizes $30 bn merger with Viterra, creating agricultural trading giant.
• Toshiba board recommends $14 billion buyout to shareholders.

Catch up on the latest news with Henry Jennings’ Pre-Market Podcast.

Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and research and become a better investor.

Make life simple. Invest with Marcus Today.

The ASX 200 clocks its third consecutive fall, down 18 points to 7100 (-0.3%), as gains in mining and energy stocks were offset by losses in Tech and healthcare. All-Tech Index down 2.5%, following the Nasdaq, as investors take some profits. XRO -5.3%, WTC -3.4%, and ALU -4.9%. Energy was the best-performing sector today, as oil prices steadied following mixed stockpile data, BPT up 3.5%, WDS up 1.1%, and COE gaining 7.4%. REITS fell as bond yields rose, SCG -3.3% and MGR off 3.4%. Consumer discretionary stocks continue to come under pressure, with WES falling 1.1%, HVN down 2.7%, and LOV off 5.2%. Gold sector is down, despite a rise in gold prices from a softer dollar, NST off 2.2% and EVN down 3.4%. Financials and banks were flat, with the Big Bank Basket up to $163.92 (-0.1%), NAB, and ANZ fell, while WBC and CBA found some support up 0.8% and 0.2%. Iron ore is up 3.91% for the week, BHP, RIO and FMG enjoying the support up 1.2%, 2.1%, and 1.7%, respectively. Coal stocks found some buyers, NHC +8.6%, WHC +5.5% and YAL up 4.4% In corporate news, AMP +0.5% sells SuperConcepts to Pemba Capital, ZIP confirms share placement and reaffirms guidance, SSM +8.7% received a tax refund of $50.2m and AIZ +1.4% after it announced it raised its earnings forecast. In economic news, Australia’s trade surplus fell to $11.16bn in April down from $14.82bn last month, significantly below market expectations of a $14bn gain, shipments fell to a nine-month low, with total exports to China falling 15.4% from last month. Asian markets are mixed, Japan down 0.7%, HK down 0.1% with China up 0.5%. Australia bond yields spike following Canada’s interest rate hike, 10Y yield up 17bps to 3.99% 2Y yield up 14bps to 4.02%. Bitcoin flat. Dow Jones futures down 31 points and Nasdaq futures down 57 points.

Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and research and become a better investor.

Make life simple. Invest with Marcus Today.

US equities closed mixed overnight. The Dow finished in the green up 92 points. Dow at best up 136 points, and at worst down 27 points. S&P 500 closed near session lows down 0.38%. NASDAQ down 1.29% as the market took profits after a month-long rally of megacap tech stocks ahead of key economic and policy events next week. Russell 2000 up +1.78%, a sign that investors are moving away from megacap growth stocks after their rally. European markets broadly lower, STOXX 50 -0.1% FTSE -0.1%, CAC -0.1%, and DAX -0.2%. ASX to slip today, with SPI futures down 13 points (-0.18%).

USD Index steady, up 0.02%. US treasury yields rose, getting a slight boost from Canada’s rate hike on Wednesday, 10Y yield up 9.3bps 2Y yield up 2.7bps. Money markets now pricing in a 72.5% chance that the Fed will skip raising interest rates this month, down from 78.2% yesterday. VIX hit its lowest level since Feb 2020 down 0.1% to 13.94. Gold slumped while the KBW Regional Banking Index closed at its highest levels since late March.

Get up to speed with Henry Jennings’ Pre-Market Podcast.

Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and research and become a better investor.

Make life simple. Invest with Marcus Today.

ASX 200closed down 12 points to 7118 (-0.2%) in a subdued trading day as the market continues to digest yesterday’s surprise rate hike from the RBA and looks for clues in Lowe’s speech today for interest rate trajectory. Sectors closed mixed today. Banks and Energy sectors worst performers. The Big Bank Basket is down to $163.75 (1.0%), the big four all down, CBA -0.9%, NAB -1.8%, WBC -1.5%, and ANZ flat. Interest rate sensitive REITS fell, GMG down 0.7% and SCG off 0.7%. The tech sector ignored the rate hike, with the All-Tech Index up 0.6%, SQ2 up 4.7%, WTC up 1.0%, and CPU rose 1.1%. Inflation hedge gold in the green with EVN up 0.3% and NCM +0.7%. Healthcare performed well, rallying as much as 1% during afternoon trade, supported by record results from PNV. COH +1.8%, PME +0.7% and RHC +0.6%. Energy stocks are down as oil prices stabilise, with WDS off 0.4% and STO down 0.9%.

In corporate news, PNV +15.8% recorded its best-ever monthly sales of $7.2m, BPT fell 8.1% on Trigg 1 well results, GQG +3.6% reported $5.9bn in net inflows, and EHE +13.3% received a revised non-binding proposal.

In economic news, Australia’s GDP expanded 0.2% QoQ in Q1 2023, falling short of expectations for a 0.3% increase marking the sixth consecutive period of economic growth albeit the softest pace in the sequence. More troubling data from China, exports dropped by 7.5% YoY, reversing from an 8.5% growth in April, and imports fell 4.5% YoY marking the third straight month of falls supporting the weak domestic demand narrative. Asian markets outside of Japan are stronger, HK up 1.0%, China up 0.2% and Japan off 1.3%. Australian bond yields inverted, 10Y yield at 3.82%, and 2Y yield at 3.88%. Crypto under siege following SECs lawsuit against Binance, Bitcoin down 1.1%. Dow Jones futures down 8 points and Nasdaq futures down 10 points.

Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and research and become a better investor.

Make life simple. Invest with Marcus Today.

US markets closed in the green overnight, struggling to find traction in an uneventful day of trade, with all major indices closing near session highs. Dow flat up x points (+0.03%). Dow at best up x, and at worst down x points. S&P 500 +0.24% touching a 10-month high during trade, and now almost up 20% since October 2022 lows. NASDAQ +0.36%. Markets are subdued ahead of inflation data and FOMC meeting next week. Inflation is expected to cool MoM, with core inflation data likely to remain elevated. Chances the Fed will hold rates now 75.4%, up from 33.4% one week ago.

Apple extended losses for a second day, down 0.21% after the company unveiled its costly augmented-reality headset to challenge Meta, which currently dominates the market. Coinbase down 12.09% after the SEC sued the exchange accusing it of illegally operating without first registering with the regulator. It is estimated that ~US$790m has been pulled from Binance and its affiliates in the last 24 hours. And against all rationale, Bitcoin held its ground up 5.71%.

Short-dated US treasuries edge higher, USD Index also up, while oil prices fell following news that Saudi Arabia would further cut output. European markets are up across the board, STOXX 50 +0.1%, FTSE +0.4%, CAC +0.1%, and DAX +0.2%. Big week for markets next week, with the Fed, ECB and BoJ all holding meetings.

• 10-year yield: US 3.67%, Australia 3.79%, and Germany 2.36%.
• USD index marginally higher and Aussie dollar mostly flat, up 0.12% and down 0.01% respectively.
• Gold prices remained flat as we awaited further indications regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory ahead of its upcoming policy meeting.
• Copper -0.36%, Nickel +0.07%, Aluminium -1.47%, Zinc +0.03%, Lead +0.1%, Tin +0.04%.
• WTI crude fell 0.6% and Brent fell 0.5% despite Saudi Arabia’s plans to cut output as concerns about China's economy and potential recessions outweigh supply concerns.

Get up to speed with Henry Jennings’ Pre-Market Podcast.

Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and research and become a better investor.

Make life simple. Invest with Marcus Today.

ASX 200closed down 87 points to 7130 (-1.2%) following a 25bps rate hike by the RBA, propping up the Aussie dollar 0.8% to 66.67c. Consumer discretionary hit hardest following rate hike news, as retail woes weighed on the market. HVN -3.2%, ADH -6.8%, and JBH off 1.8%. Banks hurting today, the Big Bank Basket down to $165.40 (-1.2%). CBA -1.0%, WBC -2.1%, ANZ -1.6%, NAB -1.1%. Insurers and Healthcare broadly down. REITs also getting hit as bond yields rise, GMG down 1.1%, and MGR off 0.4%. Resources down as iron ore dropped, BHP down 0.9%, and FMG dropped 0.2%. Lithium stocks mixed, PLS up 2.0% while MIN fell 1.2% as Morgans released their report on the sector. Gold miners drifting lower despite the possibility of a halt in Fed rate hikes. NST down 0.5%, and NCM down 2.7%.

In corporate news, QAN -4.1% as CEO Alan Joyce discloses sales of 2.5m shares, SIG +22.1% after signing a five-year supply contract with Chemist Warehouse, BBN -16.9% on downgraded profit guidance, ASX off 10.2% after its unveiling of their new five-year strategy, while SM1 rose 14.8% on A2M partnership news.

In economic news, the RBA raised interest rates by another 25bps as inflation is proving to be sticky. Asian markets mixed, Japan up 0.7%, HK up 0.3% with China down 0.5%. Australia’s 10Y yield hit a 13-week high during trade before closing to 3.80%. Bitcoin down 0.77%. Dow Jones futures down 27 points, and Nasdaq futures down 7 points.

Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and research and become a better investor.

Make life simple. Invest with Marcus Today.

US markets finished lower overnight after tech and energy stocks erased earlier gains, in a subdued trading day. Cyclical stocks weighed on the Dow. Dow down 200 points (-0.59%), at best up 41 points, and at worst down 210 points. Major laggards Caterpillar -1.8%, Boeing -2.1% and 3M – 4.4%.  S&P 500 down 0.20%. NASDAQ down 0.09%. Markets remain uncertain whether the Fed will pause rates at its upcoming meeting following jobs data last week that showed slowing US wage growth. Apple briefly hit a record high, climbing as much as 2.2% before closing down 0.8% after the company unveiled an Augmented reality headset called the Vision Pro, its riskiest and biggest bet since the introduction of the iPhone.

USD Index flat after gaining 0.44% on Friday on jobs report. Gold gained as US treasury yields retracted. Oil prices rose after Saudi Arabis announced cutting its output to 9 million barrels per day in July from 10 million in May, its largest reduction in years, a move seen as moderately bullish. European markets tracked the US down across the board, STOXX 50 -0.7%, FTSE -0.1%, CAC -1%, and DAX -0.5%. Wall Street’s fear gauge VIX higher +0.9%. SPI futures down 41 points (-0.57%)

HEADLINES

• Apple unveils Vision Pro AR headset, its riskiest bet since the iPhone.
• Apple's Vision Pro headset to be sold at triple the price of Meta's top-line headset.
• US regulators sue Binance and its CEO for alleged deception.
• US services sector shows slow growth, aiding the fight against inflation.
• Bed Bath & Beyond in talks to sell Buybuy Baby chain to Go Global Retail.
• Former Vice President Mike Pence declares candidacy for 2024 Republican presidential nomination.
• ECB's Lagarde sees no peak in core inflation despite moderation.
• White House warns of growing aggressiveness by Beijing's military in Taiwan Strait and South China Sea.
• Global airlines more than double their profit forecast for 2023 but warn of plane delivery delays.

Catch up on the latest news with Henry Jennings’ Pre-Market Podcast.

Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and research and become a better investor.

Make life simple. Invest with Marcus Today.

 ASX 200 finished well off the highs, up 71 points (+1.0%) ahead of RBA uncertainty tomorrow. Solid cautious gains across the board. Resources were firm as iron ore rose, BHP up 1.7% and RIO up 1.3% with FMG screaming ahead up 3.6%. Lithium and base metals are better, PLS up 2.0% and S32 rising 1.3%. Gold miners slipped a little with NCM down 1.4% and NST off 0.4%. Oil and gas better after the Saudi production cut and bounce in crude, WDS up 0.8% and STO rallying 1.1%. Coal slightly higher. Banks firmed with the Big Bank Basket up to $167.44 (+1.0%). MQG better by 1.6% with insurers doing well on higher bond yields. QBE up 1.6%. Fund managers also in demand, MFG up 2.0 and PTM rallying 0.3%. Industrials firm, TLS up 0.7% and healthcare doing well, CSL up 0.9% with RMD up 0.8%. REITs firm, GMG up 1.4% and SCG better by 0.5%. Tech stocks a bit flat, APX down 6.9% on profit taking, with XRO off 1.8% and WTC down 0.,7%. In corporate news, ELD has decided to stick with the current CEO, rising 2.7% and MYR CEO is retiring next year. On the economic front, nothing market moving with Phil Lowe sealing his date with destiny tomorrow, the jury well and truly hung. Asian markets are mixed, Japan up 1.7%, HK up 0.3% and China unchanged. Dow futures up 30 points. NASDAQ futures down 43 points.

Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and research and become a better investor.

Make life simple. Invest with Marcus Today.