Market Updates

US markets gave up early gains but still finished higher following a better-than-expected inflation rate for November. The Dow Jones closed up 104 points (+0.30%), recovering from a mid-session stumble. At best it was up 707, and at worst it was down 114. The S&P 500 rose 0.73% and the NASDAQ was up 1.01%. In Europe, STOXX 50 +1.7%, FTSE +0.8%, CAC +1.4%, and DAX +1.3%. SPI Futures are up 16 points (+0.22%).

It was a volatile session in the US as November inflation came in at 7.1% YoY, ahead of the consensus figure of 7.3%, and the lowest reading since December last year. This was largely due to lower energy costs which increased 13.1% YoY, below the 17.6% in October. While gasoline, fuel oil, electricity, and food also decreased from the October reading. On the other hand, the cost of shelter increased to 7.1% from 6.9% in October.

The Fed is now largely expected to raise rates by 50bps tomorrow as it begins to slow the pace of rate hikes. Markets are now factoring in a 25bp rate hike as early as the February Fed meeting. Bond yields fell sharply during the session, the 10-year yield was down 9.9bps while the 2-year yield fell 17.2bps. The USD Index also came off 1.09%, with the Aussie Dollar gaining 1.62% to 68.54c.

• U.S. inflation subsiding as consumer prices rise moderately in boost to economy
• U.S. charges FTX founder with fraud, illegal campaign contributions
• Fed seen slowing rate hikes, likely ending them below 5%
• Wall Street rises after cooler CPI data but off highs as Fed eyed
• EU delays decision on natural gas price cap, countries still at odds
• China's massive older chip tech build up raises U.S. concern
• Apple prepares to allow alternative app stores on iPhones, iPads
• Positive Moderna, Merck cancer vaccine data advances mRNA promise, shares rise
• OPEC sees robust global oil demand growth in 2023 after 2022 Chinese contraction
• U.S. lab hits fusion milestone raising hopes for clean power
• U.S. Energy Department to spend $3.7 billion on carbon removal
• Oil rises to over $80/bbl as dollar slumps on slowing inflation

Catch up on all the latest with Henry Jennings on today’s Pre-Market Podcast.

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 ASX 200 closed modestly, up 23 points to 7203 (0.3%) higher as banks rallied post the BEN results and Resources fell as UBS downgraded BHP and others. Cautious trade ahead of US CPI and FOMC. BHP sank 1.5% on the downgrade after a great run, RIO succumbed too with FMG off 4.2%. MIN collapsed 3.8% with lithium and base metal stocks also under pressure. LTR down 2.6%, NIC off 2.5% and SFR falling 4.1%. Gold miners eased with EVN down 1.4% and DEG off 1.2%. Energy stocks mixed, WDS up 0.1% but ORG regained some poise after the big fall yesterday. Banks were the standout today after BEN results cheered on NIM, the regional bank up % with CBA up 1.0% and NAB racing 2.0% ahead with the Big Bank Basket up to $184.99 (). Insurers also in demand, QBE doing well up 0.8% and SUN up 1.7% on the timetable for the SUN transaction. MQG managed a 0.8% gain. Industrials were firm across the board, TCL up 1.5%, ALL up 0.2% and TPG up 1.4%. Tech better following Nasdaq higher, WTC up 2.0% and XRO up 3.3%. The All-Tech Index rising 1.2%. In corporate news, MCR fell 4.4% after returning from a capital raise. CHN fell 8.1% on disappointment on the timing of the scoping study being pushed out. ZIP made a small capital call too falling %, BEN woke up the bank sector ahead of AGM with better NIM and rose 6.9%. On the economic front, consumer sentiment recovered a little and trade data out. China still our #1 trading partner. Asian market subdued, HK up 0.6%, China down 0.3% with Japan up 0.3%. 10-year yields tickling back up to 3.39%.

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• The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped Monday, clawing back some of the steep losses from the previous week, as traders looked ahead to a highly anticipated Federal Reserve meeting and new inflation data.
• The blue-chip Dow added 528.58 points, or 1.58%, to 34,005.04. That was its first close over 34,000 since Dec. 2. The S&P 500 gained 1.43% to close at 3,990.56, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.26% to 11,143.74. Interestingly the VIX was up 9.6% ahead of US CPI and FOMC.
• CPI on Tuesday expectations for a slight easing to 0.3% for October.
• A lift in Boeing shares pushed the Dow higher following reports that the airline is close to a deal with Air India. 
• Energy stocks rose  as oil prices steadied, following several weeks of declines. 
• Base metals eased slightly. Iron ore down and gold falling on higher USD.

Tune in to Henry Jennings’ Pre-Market Podcast to get in the know for the day ahead.

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ASX 200 closed down 32 points to 7181 (0.5%) as banks steady and resources slip ahead of FOMC. Gas caps hurting sentiment in utilities not helpful with ORG dropping 7.8%. In iron ore stocks, BHP dragged the index lower falling 1.5% with FMG in trouble too. MIN off 2.4% with IGO down 2.6%. Base metal and lithium stocks off again too, LTR down 2.2% and CXO falling 1.3% on a slight broker downgrade. PLS bucked the trend rising 1.3% and SYA up 2.3% with some permitting news in Quebec. Gold miners hit, NCM down 3.4% and NST off 3.1% as GMD and SBM announced their engagement in the press. Oil and gas mixed, crude rose in Asian trade, WDS up 2.7% but coal stocks eased on worries about price caps. WHC down 2.0% and NHC off 1.4%. Banks were flat with the Big Bank Basket pretty much unchanged, MQG bounced 2.1% and Insurers mixed, MPL grinding lower down 2.0%. Industrials mixed, WOW and COL eased, REITs better as rates rose, GMG up 0.1% and SCG better by 0.4%. Healthcare easier, CSL unchanged and RMD off 0.6%. Technology mixed. CPU down 0.8% and WTC up 0.2%. In corporate news, TYR rebuffed the latest 160c offer from Potentia, down 19.5%, NTO got a 215c bid from Allude. GMD and SBM announced the long- awaited merger and a $275m capital raise. DOW added more information to its opaque accounts process. Nothing on the economic front, with Asian market weaker and 10-year yields up to 3.36%

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US markets fell overnight as the Producer Price Index for November came in ahead of consensus, in the final puzzle piece for the Fed heading into the FOMC meeting next week. The Dow Jones fell 305 points (-0.90%) to close near lows. At best it was up 63 points, and at worst it was down 319 points. The NASDAQ slipped 0.70% and the S&P 500 fell 0.73%. In Europe, STOXX 600 +0.84%, FTSE +0.06%, DAX +0.74%, and France +0.046%. SPI Futures are down 35 points (-0.48%) this morning.

The US PPI print for November came in at 0.3% month on month ahead of consensus of 0.2%. This is the final piece of the puzzle in the Fed’s decision-making for the next FOMC meeting. The probability for a 75bp rate hike jumped a couple of per cent but a 50bp hike is still favoured. On a slightly better note, consumer sentiment in the US picked up overnight, buoyed by falling petrol prices. Bond yields were higher overnight, with the 10-year yield up 9.6bps and the 2-year yield up 3.2bps. The USD Index was up a touch and the Aussie Dollar rose 0.38% to 67.92c, closing in on 68c.

In commodities, base metals were mostly lower, aluminium, lead, and tin were all down over 1%. The oil price woes continued with West Texas Intermediate down 0.35%, rounding out the biggest losing week in months. Brent crude prices rose 0.47%. Gold was up 0.44%, despite a slightly stronger USD. Dalian iron ore futures jumped 3.34% as optimism around China improved with COVID curbs continuing to ease. BHP and RIO both finished higher in the US, but other resources stocks experienced a volatile session. Freeport was down 3.149%, Alcoa fell 4.65%, and Anglo-American dropped 3.32%.

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 ASX 200 finishes up 38 points at 7213 (0.5%) as iron ore stocks rally hard on Asian gains. BHP up 2.7% and FMG up 2.8% leading the charge as Dalian futures hit a 4-month high on hopes of a Chinese property rescue. Lithium stocks still struggling a little post GS research. Gold miners were better with NCM up 0.8% and NST gaining 2.0%. EVN up 2.4%. CHN continue to push on up another 3.8%. SYR and 29M also in demand. Energy stocks flat, coal stocks mixed, WHC up 1.3%. In industrials, REITs slipped a little, gaming stocks better with ALL up 0.2% and healthcare modestly higher. Tech stocks better as WTC rallied 1.2% and XRO up 0.8% as book squaring pre-PPI was the way to go. Banks were mixed with CBA easing 0.4% and the Big Bank Basket flat. MQG under pressure down 1.8%, PNI slammed as performance fee evaporated, down 3.8%. In corporate news, Potentia were back for NTO, up 3.4% and above the 200c bid price. BTH returned after its ‘successful’ capital raise falling 21.5%. BSL up 0.4% after accused of cartel behaviour. SGR up 0.6% after being fined $100m but QLD casino’s allowed to stay open. BPT threw in the towel in the WGO takeover battle and rose slightly. STX hurt on the news down 8.0%. Nothing on the economic front. 10-year yields lower at 3.29%. Asian markets better HK up 1.7%, China up 0.3% with Japan up 1.2%.

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US markets snapped a five-day losing streak to finish higher ahead of PPI data tonight, which will factor into the Fed’s next move. The Dow Jones closed up 184 points (+0.55%), having been up 301 points at its best. The NASDAQ bounced 1.13%, and the S&P 500 rose 0.75%. In Europe, STOXX 50 +0.2%, FTSE -0.2%, CAC -0.2%, DAX +0.02%. SPI Futures are up 33 points (+0.46%) as we look to finish the week on a positive note.

Catch up on all the latest with Henry Jennings on today’s Pre-Market Podcast.

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 ASX 200 dropped another 54 points to 7175 (0.8%) as international recession fears continue. Banks eased back with the Big Bank Basket down to $182.35 (0.8%). MQG slid another 1.4% with insurers coming off their highs, QBE down 1.4%, MPL pushing higher by 2.1%. FUM managers again under pressure, PPT down 2.8% and GQG off 1.4%. REITs better as 10-year yields stable. GMG up 1.3% and CHC the stand out up 3.0%. Industrials were firm generally, WES up 0.7%, TCL up 1.2% and WOW and COL doing ok. Tech stocks mixed, the All -Tech Index down slightly. XRO rebounded 0.9%. Resources were mixed, iron ore stocks giving back some recent gains, BHP down 0.8% and FMG off 1.8%. Lithium stocks under pressure as Goldman Sachs weighed in with another report. CXO down 9.9% and LTR taking it especially hard, down 7.5%. Gold miners though in the box seat as bullion increased, NCM up 2.0% and EVN up 3.6%, Good drill results from CHN saw the stock soar 13.11%. Oil stocks also on the nose with WDS down 4.3% and STO off %. BPT recovered some ground from yesterday up 0.3%. Coal stocks slipped a little. In corporate news, DOW were hammered after it ‘presented an ability to be opaque’ with a $40m accounting issue. JRV returned to trade up 4.6%. In economic news, we had international trade and tourism numbers. 10 year yields steady at 3.35%. Asian markets mixed with HK once again sprinting ahead on relaxation of restrictions up 2.8%, China up 0.2% with Japan down 0.5%.

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­US markets fell for the fifth straight session with recession fears weighing heavily. It was a choppy session, with multiple swings either way, as the Dow Jones closed up two points. At best it was up 178 points, and at worst it was down 93 points. The NASDAQ fell another 0.51% and the S&P 500 finished 0.19% lower. In Europe, STOXX 50 -0.5%, FTSE -0.4%, CAC -0.4%, DAX -0.6%. SPI Futures are down 16 points (-0.22%).

• Wall St ends lower after choppy trading from rising recession worries
• 'We're going to be free': Chinese cheer as COVID curbs are loosened
• Putin says Russia could be fighting in Ukraine for a long time
• Bank of Canada makes big rate hike, hints it may the last one
• U.S. third-quarter productivity raised; labor costs still running high
• Western officials in talks with Turkey over oil tanker delays
• Brazil's Vale forecasts flat iron ore output, shares dive 4.4%
• Oil gives up the year's gains, closing at 2022 low
• U.S. crude stocks drop; fuel stocks post large builds

Tune in to Henry Jennings’ Pre-Market Podcast to get in the know for the day ahead.

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ASX 200 dropped 62 points to 7229 (0.85%) in lacklustre trade, cratering on the match out as GDP came in below forecasts. Once again resources were the stars at least until the close, base metal stocks in favour. BHP up 0.1%, FMG up 2.3% and even PLS joined in the positivity up 2.2%. Gold miners were slightly firmer, NCM up 1.1% and NST up 0.2% but BGL dropped 12% on news of a $60m placement. Oil and gas stocks fell back, WDS down 2.0%, STO off 1.1% and BPT taking a tumble on broker moves down 9.9%. Second line lithium a little depressed. Banks eased back following their US counterparts. CBA dropped 0.8%, NAB down 1.2% and the Big Bank Basket at $183.80 (-1.0%). Insurers doing well, QBE up 1.9%, SUN up 1.5% and IAG in the box seat up 1.9%. MQG slid 1.8% with GQG better by 1.4% on its FUM numbers. Industrials eased back too, TLS down 0.5%, WES off 1.5% and TCL down 1.9% on higher rates. Tech stocks under pressure after Nasdaq falls, the All-Tech Index down 3.2% with WTC off 5.3% and XRO heading another 4.2% lower. Healthcare eased, SHL off 2.3%. In corporate news, STO extended its buy back down 1.1%, BTH launched a placement whilst under takeover. STX has bought a 19.9% stake in WGO blocking Gina and Kerry. Squadron Energy (Twiggy’s private company) paid $4bn for CWP renewables. In economic news, GDP for the September quarter came in at 0.6% below consensus. 10-year yields down to 3.35%. Asian markets, Japan up 0.1%, China down 0.1% post economic data and HK added 0.8%. Dow futures are up 51 points and NASDAQ futures are up 22 points.

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