Market Updates

The Dow Jones was up 199 points (+0.59%). At best it was up 282 points, and at worst it was down six points. The NASDAQ failed to kick into gear, closing a single point higher. The S&P 500 gained 0.48%. Ahead of Thanksgiving week this week (a lot of people go on holiday) it was another narrow session with trading volumes around 20% below the 30-day average despite a US$2.1bn options expiry.

US bond yields kicked up again, with the 10-year up 5.2bps and the 2-year up 7.7bps. Fed head comments fuelling the rise, with Bullard suggesting rates need to go to at least 5-5.25%, and Kashkari saying how far the central bank will go is an “open question”. Collins suggested that another 75bps hike could be on the cards for December 14, with little evidence that price pressures are waining. But some strategists suggest that investors are seeing the signs of steadying inflation as an opportunity to take advantage of the Fed easing its rate rise to 50bps on December 14. The US Dollar index rose again overnight, up 0.22%, with the Aussie Dollar slipping 0.09%

In commodities, the oil price was probably;y the main feature, down 2% as global demand fell, leading to the second weekly decline in oil prices - down almost 10%. Brent crude was down 2.35%, and WTI was down 1.98%, for the week, WTI fell 9.98%. Base metals steadied the ship, most were higher, with copper the only loser, down 0.63%. Dalian iron ore was up 0.52%. Coal rebounded again, up 4.40%. Gold was down 0.65%, falling 0.80% for the week. Bitcoin was down 0.57%, it seems like the initial fallout from the FTX drama has washed over.

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ASX 200 closed up 16 points at 7150 (0.2%). Index down 6 points for the week. Another narrow range trading day with banks and resources heading higher in unison. The Big Bank Basket up to $184.60 (0.5%). MQG slipped a little, insurers better led by QBE up 1.9% and IAG up 1.2%. PPT down 2.4% with PDL down 1.6%. Healthcare slightly better, CSL up 0.4% and FPH rallying 2.7%. Industrials were firmer, WES up 0.7%, TLS up 1.6% and WOW up 0.7%. REITs better on falling yields, TCL doing well again too up 1.0%. Tech flat with WTC down 0.4%. Resources somewhat mixed as BHP rose 0.3% on its increased offer at 2825c for OZL up 4.0% Lithium stocks continue to see profit taking. CXO off another 1.1% with PLS sliding 2.9%. Oil and gas stocks fell, WDS down 0.8% and coal stocks finding support on higher coal prices. In corporate news, LOV slid 7.1% on a business update. STA up 5.6% on a corporate presentation, CTT fell 12.2% as founder sells down, NXL up 21.9% on its AGM addresses. Nothing on the economic front. Asian markets flat with the 10-year yield steady at 3.60%

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• Copper retreats on renewed worries about China Covid curbs.
• Gold slides 1% as dollar marches ahead.
• India set to be one of the world’s fastest-growing copper markets in 2022.
• Canada very unlikely to join OPEC like group for nickel.
• LME tightens restraints as nickel turns unruly again.
• LME raises initial margins on nickel by 28% after volatility.
• Nickel price tumbles as LME scrutinises volatile trading.

• Japanese data: Inflation rate for October.
• UK data: Retail sales for October.
• US data: Existing home sales for October & CB leading Index for October.
• Corporate events: N/A.
• AGM’s: MGR, LLC, ATM, NXT, NHF, LOV, PXA, NAN, & CVN.
• Ex-Dividends today: SOL, ORI

 A very narrow day of trade today, the ASX 200 finished up 14 points (+0.2%), with a range of only 40 points. Defensive stocks were the best place to be while resources weighed on the market. Iron ore miners struggled, BHP was down 1.5%, RIO was down 1.8%, and FMG fell 1.8%. S32 lost 5.2% on a Macquarie downgrade. Financials were better after some weakness yesterday. The Big Bank Basket was up 0.5% to $183.75. MQG joined in, up 1.1%. Healthcare shone brightly, with CSL up 1.4%, RMD up 1.5%, and FPH up 3.9%. Consumer staples were higher, with WOW up 2.1%, COL up 1.9%, and WES rising 2.5%. The travel sector enjoyed a nice rally on the back of some solid numbers from WEB, up 10.1%. Technology stocks pushed higher, the All-Tech Index was up xx%, with REA up 0.3%, XRO up 1.7%, and WTC climbing 1.3%. Energy stocks struggled, coal stocks in particular, fell hard, following a 5.3% fall in the coal price overnight. WHC down 6.3%, CRN down 3.8% and NHC down 6.5%.  Lithium miners steadied the ship after suffering from some profit-taking in recent sessions. And gold stocks were a bit all over the shop, SFR the biggest loser, down 3.0%. In corporate news, the PDL/PPT deal in the courts with PDL up 10.5% as it lowered its takeover offer of PPT, down 12.6%. WEB flew up 10.1% on some well-received first-half results. In economic news, unemployment fell to 3.4% in October, down from 3.5% in September, with consensus for a 0.1% rise. The market was relatively unphased, the release paves the way for further RBA rate rises. Asian markets are mixed. Dow Futures are up 21 points.

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• The S&P 500 ended the day down 0.83% at 3,958.79, and the Nasdaq Composite shed 1.54% to 11,183.66. 
• The Dow Jones Industrial Average wrestled with the flat line all day, but finished down 39.09 points, or 0.12% at 33,553.83.
• Federal Reserve governor Chris Waller said he could be open to slowing the pace of rate rises, though he’s waiting for more data.
• US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen signalled the Biden administration will push for greater regulation of the cryptocurrency market following the collapse of FTX.
• Target are down 13.4% in late trade after its profit tumbled 52% in the September quarter and it warned of Christmas sales down on 2021.
• Cisco slightly firmer after hours on results.
• Base metals weaker. Nickel down 8.5%
• Oil off 0.9% Gold down 0.3%
• Iron ore better in Asia yesterday up 2.5%
• AUD 67.38c.
• BHP/OZL deal expected to be announced
• ASX update on CHESS. 

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ASX 200 fell back another 19 points to 7122 (0.3%) as momentum is stalling. Poland may be a distraction but banks down as yields fall, the Big Bank Basket down to $182.89 (1.2%). CBA down 1.8% on broker downgrades, MQG losing 0.9%, insurers off too, IAG down 2.3% and QBE off 2.9%. Fund managers slipping away, MFG down 2.2%, PPT down 4.3% and PTM off 1.3%. PDL still in demand up 4.5%. Industrials pretty flat, REITs unchanged, healthcare eased, CSL off 0.5% and SHL down 2.5% with RMD falling 1.3%. Tech mixed, XRO down 1.8% with the All-Tech Index off 0.6%. Resources were mostly firm although lithium stocks still a little depressed, PLS rose 1.9% on dividend policy news, AKE rallied back 2.4% but CXO dropped 5.4% and LTR off 3.4%. Iron ore stocks better, BHP up 1.2% with FMG rallying 2.3%. Base metals better and OZL in a trading halt as it looks like BHP is trying to button down the takeover. IGO up 4.0% and LYC doing well up 4.0%. Gold miners eased back again, NCM down 1.9% and NST off 2.6%. Energy stocks better, WDS up 1.4% and coal stocks doing very well, WHC up 5.8% and NHC rallying 4.4%.
In corporate news, ALL came up lemons, down 5.0% as it issued no guidance, NUF up 8.9% on its results. KMD up 4.2% on its results. SZL did well up 15.0% with a business update and AXE up 4.6% on another step forward to commercialisation.
On the economic front, wage growth in the private sector grew 4.3% in September quarter. Overall wage growth picked up 1% over the quarter to 3.1%. Asian markets were mixed consolidating recent gains. 10-year yields falling again to 3.70%

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US stocks jumped back on the train, pushing higher overnight as PPI data supported the peak inflation story. The Dow Jones finished up 56 points (+0.17%), in the middle of a big trading range and making up for some of the previous session’s losses. At best it was up 450 points and at worst it was down 217 points. The S&P 500 rose 0.87%, and the NASDAQ was up 1.45%. In Europe, Stoxx 50 was up 0.7%, FTSE was down 0.2%, CAC was up 0.5%, DAX was up 0.5%, with reports coming in that Russian missiles hit Poland. SPI Futures are down 12 points (-0.17%) this morning. This follows a 5-point fall yesterday. 
The US producer price index for October came in at 8% last night, below the 8.3% expected. This helped fuel investor optimism of the Fed slowing the pace of rate increases. But the rally came to a halt when news of the Russian missiles hitting Poland landed, with markets dropping sharply on the news. The USD Index also slipped on the news but rallied into the close, finishing down 0.24% but off lows for the session. US 10-Year and 2-Year yields also fell during the session, down 9.6bps and 6.1bps respectively.
In commodities, oil prices rose overnight, with brent crude up 1.12% and WTI up 1.19%, following news of a pipeline disruption to Hungary.  Base metals were mixed with some big moves in nickel, up 10.53%, and tin, up 8.63%. Gold continued higher up another 1.31. Coal prices jumped overnight, up 6.24%. Iron ore moved slightly higher, up 0.42%, with BHP up 2.23% and RIO up 1.62% in ADR terms. Bitcoin found some buyers, up 3.35%, but is still down over 24% in the past 10 days.

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•  ASX 200 fought back to close down only 5 points at 7142 (0.1%). Once again it was the tale of two sectors. Resources on the nose after some good rises, lithium stocks depressed as Goldman Sachs issued another sell note citing oversupply from 2025. CXO, PLS and AKE whacked hard with second liners also in the seller’s sights. Stop losses and profit taking also at play. Base metals eased too with OZL down 1.0% and S32 off 1.1%. Less damage than lithium and rare earths as money flowed into laggards, iron ore stocks saw some selling pressure BHP down 0.2% and FMG off 0.8%. Gold miners steady and selective. DCN up 6.7% with DEG off 1.1%. No real damage in the sector with bullion flat. Oil and gas eased, WDS down 1.4% and coal stocks mixed. In the banking sector, CBA up 1.3% was the focus after ok results, only Q1 so no dividend announcement and not much detail, the Big Bank Basket $185.16 (0.4%) as NAB went ex-dividend. MQG and the insurers better, IAG up 1.3%. MPL pretty much unchanged. Industrials slightly weaker, REITs down led by GMG, healthcare better after falls yesterday CSL up 1.5% and RHC up 1.3%. Tech slightly higher XRO up 3.1%. The All-Tech Index up 1.3%. 
• On the corporate front, AKE held its AGM, AGL saw four new MCB nominated directors join the board, DGL rose 16.7% on its AGM.  IPL up 5.9% on good results and delays to demerger.
• In economic news we had RBA minutes. Not sure we learnt much, Asian markets continued higher on Chinese optimism. TSMC a stand-out as Buffett buys in and tech sector doing well. 10-year yields slightly higher at 3.77%.

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• The US rally came to a halt overnight as markets gave back some of the gains from the previous two sessions. The Dow Jones faded into the close, down 211 points (-xx%), closing just off lows. At best it was up 216 points, at worst it was down 214 points. The S&P 500 was down 0.20%, and the NASDAQ slipped 1.12%. The US Dollar index moved higher during the session, up 0.35%. The Aussie dollar was unchanged, fetching 67.00c. And US 10-Year and 2-Year yields moved higher, up 4.3bps and 8.0bps respectively. In Europe, Stoxx 50 up 0.5%, FTSE up 0.9%, CAC up 0.2%, and DAX up 0.6%. 
• SPI Futures are set to open 37 points (-0.52%) lower.
• Markets rallied before a late sell off as  Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard indicated the central bank could soon slow the pace of interest rate rises.
• President Biden and Xi Jinping meet for three hours.
• Amazon.com plans to cut about 10,000 jobs, the largest ever headcount reduction at the e-commerce giant as it braces for slower growth and a possible recession.
• In commodities, oil tripped up, with brent crude down 3.47% and WTI down 3.69%, as OPEC cut oil demand growth forecasts for the fifth time since April. Base metals were mixed, copper, nickel, and aluminium were all lower, while zinc, lead and tin all moved higher. The iron ore price was up 3.3% overnight, with BHP up 0.6% and RIO down 0.73% in ADR terms. Gold was slightly higher, up 0.12%. Bitcoin slipped another 3.8%, with the FTX drama deepening.  
• CBA results may be a little light on.

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ASX 200 finished down 12 points to 7146 (0.2%) as Fed official talks tough on rates again. USD rises, gold slips and yields up too. Banks wore the brunt of the selling as the bifurcation in the market kicked off again. The Big Bank Basket fell to $184.48 (-0.8%). Insurers also hurt with IAG down 2.4%, QBE down 4.0% and PPT off 5.8% on court moves. Healthcare too in ICU with CSL down 2.0%, COH off 4.2% and RMD falling 3.4%. Industrials slipping as TLS fell 3.5% on a management change, staples eased back, WES down 2.1% and COL off 2.0%. REITs slipped too, SCG down 3.1%. Tech stocks mixed as WTC fell 1.7% and XRO resumed its slide down 3.9%. The All-Tech Index dropped 0.5%. Resources though were a different story although off highs as USD gathered strength. Iron ore in demand, BHP up 4.6%, FMG up 10.1% with base metals also doing well, S32 up 5.9%, CIA up 12.9%, OZL up 1.1% and selected lithium plays better. CXO marching 11.7% ahead with LTR in demand. Energy stocks better as WDS ran 1.5% with WHC up 3.2% the best of the coal stocks.
In corporate news, ELD were smashed 22.9% on an uncertain outlook and the CEO retiring in the next 12 months. WGO rose 16.7% on a takeover from BPT. IVZ had another strong rise on drill results, RMS chopped by 6.5% on a 3-year production outlook and NEA fell 5.8% on churn issues. FLT fell 3.8% on underwhelming growth numbers and a threat to airline commissions. Nothing on the economic front, Asian market mixed as Japan fell 0.9%, China up 1.1% and HK up 2.9%. 10-year yields at 3.75%

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