New data indicates that American manufacturing is shrinking. The index of leading economic indicators has been signaling recession for more than a year. But what about consumer spending? Or the tight labor market? We called up some forecasters to sift through this pile of data and talk about the challenges of predicting where the economy is going right now. Plus: We meet the AI chatbots that lawyers are already using and take a closer look at how the economic boom in Houston is leaving the working class behind. But first, our panel of experts recaps a big week for the Federal Reserve.

Today we’ve got stories about big decisions, from your local mom-and-pop to massive central banks. First, we’ll explore how the Federal Reserve takes cues from its counterparts around the globe on monetary policy and vice versa. Then, we’ll examine how small businesses raise their prices without access to reams of customer data. Plus: Amazon’s “dark patterns” and checking the obits for a new home.

At his biannual congressional testimony today, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stuck to his script on whether more interest rate increases are coming. Thing is, that script still has a cliffhanger ending. Today, we’ll try to parse Powell’s words. Plus, inflation hits a Brooklyn bakery and fears of industrial espionage plague the startup world.

Black homeownership climbed early in the pandemic, with mortgage rates near historic lows. But the current prolonged period of higher rates has some economists worried about Black Americans’ prospects for wealth building. We’ll also examine what’s fueling homebuilders’ optimism, why water contamination is pervasive in Black communities and how the climate crisis is changing your morning cup of Joe.

With persistent inflation and high interest rates, Americans have good reason to feel rather glum about the economy. Yet through it all, consumers have kept on spending, further evidenced by May retail sales. What gives? Also, why health insurance might get pricier and how streaming deals for live sports are changing the political ad game.

The Federal Reserve has signaled that it’s not done raising interest rates, but it pressed the pause button today. We’ll unpack the motives for Chair Jerome Powell and company and see whether existing economic data points toward an elusive “soft landing.” Plus, a contradiction in the mortgage market, a tale of two cities’ rising prices and a deeply personal exploration of the Black working class.

Inflation ticked down to 4% in May from a year earlier. While that’s well below its peak last June, it’s still double the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%. On today’s show, why the last leg of the Fed’s inflation battle might just be the trickiest. Also: persistently high used car prices, the shrinking U.S. money supply and the big business of cowboy art.

The Federal Reserve is expected to pause its program of interest rate hikes this week as it tries to whittle inflation down to 2%. But with annual price gains hovering at around 5%, economists are divided on whether 2% is the right goal anymore. Today, we delve into the debate. We’ll also look at jobs created by the Inflation Reduction Act and the child care hurdles posed by unpredictable work hours.

The Securities and Exchange Commission has sued two crypto exchanges, Coinbase and Binance. The cases pose an existential question: Are cryptocurrencies like securities, commodities or something else? The answer would dictate how crypto is regulated and could have far-reaching ripple effects. Also on the program: the closed IPO window, accolades for Indigenous cuisine and the entrepreneurial drive among immigrant women.

Saudi Arabia is cutting oil production by nearly a million barrels a day in hopes of boosting prices. Thing is, plenty of supply and weaker global demand could derail its effort. Plus, construction spending is a bright spot in U.S. manufacturing, office space owners reel from remote work, and Make-A-Wish plays catch-up on a backlog of Disney wishes.