A president’s first midterm election is both an enormous story and completely anticlimactic. It’s major news because there will likely be a dramatic shift away from the president’s party. It’s anticlimactic because it’s one of the most predictable events in American politics.

But history is not on Biden’s side. In fact, voters may have already made up their minds. 

That, at least, is the argument from Doug Sosnik in his latest memo that we are happy to share first with the Playbook audience. You can read the full memo here

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Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook.
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