(with Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)

No major announcements

Retail sales rose 1.7% in March, driven by higher gas prices. The U.S. Census Bureau said 12 of 13 categories reported higher revenue than February. The exception was miscellaneous stores. Gas station sales jumped 15.5% in a month when prices rose 24%, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Excluding gas stations and car dealers, retail spending increased 0.6%. Sales at bars and restaurants rose 0.1%, following a 0.5% gain in February and two months of declines. Adjusted for inflation, total retail sales rose 0.8%, the most in a year. Retail sales represent about two-thirds of U.S. consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of the gross domestic product.

Prospects for home sellers brightened slightly in March with a bump up in the pending home sales index from the National Association of Realtors. The trade group said its index rose 1.5% from February but was down 1.1% from the year before. It stood more than 26% below the 2001 index base, which the Realtors consider to be a normal sales level. The association said the monthly increase in contract signings amid rising mortgage interest rates suggested pent-up demand. It cited a lack of inventory, especially for young, first-time buyers. Among the top 50 metro areas in the country, the Realtors said the Milwaukee-Waukesha area had a 13.5% one-year gain in pending sales, second only to the Kansas City area, at 15%. 

No major announcements

The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose slightly for the third week in a row to remain 42% below its average since 1967. A Labor Department report suggested continued reluctance among employers to let workers go. Total jobless claims dropped 1.9% from the week before to 1.9 million, which was 2.9% below the same time in 2025.

Consumer sentiment declined 6.6% in April as the U.S.-Israeli war in Iran continued to weigh down expectations for personal finances and the broader economy. Sentiment overall was nearly 5% lower than in April 2025 and near its low levels in mid-2022, when inflation reached 40-year highs. According to the University of Michigan survey, consumers expect inflation to rise to 4.7% in the next year and to settle around 3.5% longer term. The latest Consumer Price Index showed inflation at 3.3% in March, well above the Federal Reserve’s long-term target of 2%.