(with Max Hoelzl,Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)

Housing sales stayed “sluggish” in March amid the weakest market in more than 30 years, according to the National Association of Realtors. The annual sales rate dipped another 3.6% from February to 3.98 million, 1% lower than the year before. The trade group blamed elevated mortgage rates and continued lack of inventory. Another 300,000 to 500,000 houses would be needed in addition to the 1.4 million already for sale to reach the historic balance between supply and demand, the group said. The imbalance has resulted in price increases. The median sales price rose 1.6% from the year before to a record $408,880 in March. The Realtors estimated that rising prices have increased the typical homeowner’s wealth by $128,100 since 2000.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that wholesale inflation rose 0.5% in March, as prices on goods increased while services were unchanged. An 8.5% jump in energy prices, including nearly 16% in gasoline, accounted for the bulk of the rise in the cost of goods. The Producer Price Index advanced 4% from the year before, the steepest increase in more than three years. Excluding volatile prices for food, energy and trade services, the core PPI rose 0.2% from February and was up 3.6% from the year before, the most since November.

No major announcements

The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the seond week in a row following five weeks of no increases. The indicator of employers’ willingness to let workers go remained 42% below the all-time average, dating to 1967, according to Labor Department data. Total claims for jobless benefits fell 4% from the week before to 1.9 million, which was 3% off from where it was the year before.

Industrial production sank in March for the first time in four months as output from mines, utilities and manufacturing all declined. The Federal Reserve Board said overall production fell 0.5%, although it was up 2.4% through the first quarter and was 0.7% ahead of where it stood in March 2025. Factory production dropped 0.1% from February on broad declines led by automotive, which were partly offset by increased output from construction supplies as well as defense and space equipment. Industries’ capacity utilization rate fell slightly from February and stayed below its 54-year average, suggesting higher prices weren’t imminent.

No major announcements

(with Jason Scuglik)

No major announcements

The Commerce Department signaled ongoing weakness in demand for long-lasting manufactured products as orders for durable goods declined in February for the third month in a row and the fourth time in five months. A drop-off in requests for aircraft led a 1.4% dip in orders for the month, though commercial aircraft orders boosted the year-to-year totals to an 8.1% increase. Excluding transportation equipment, orders rose 0.8% from January and were up 5.3% from February 2025. Core capital goods orders, considered a proxy for business investments, rose 0.6% for the month and increased 4.2% from the same time last year.

The Federal Reserve reported that revolving credit debt outstanding rose at an annual rate of 0.6% in February. That was down from paces of 2.3% and 7.4% in the preceding months and suggests a rising reluctance among consumers to carry credit card debt. Revolving credit debt has declined 1.8% from its peak in October 2024. The report showed total consumer debt growing at an annual 2.2% pace, including a 2.8% rise in non-revolving credit, which includes student loans and vehicle financing.

No major announcements

The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the first time in six weeks but remained 42% below the long-term average. The measure is an ongoing indicator of employers’ reluctance to let go of workers. The Labor Department also reported that a little more than 2 million Americans claimed jobless benefits in the most recent week. That’s down 1.3% from the week before and down 2.3% from the same time last year.

U.S. economic growth slowed more than previously reported at the end of 2025. The Bureau of Economic Analysts said gross domestic product rose at an annual pace of 0.5% in the fourth quarter, down from an earlier estimate of 0.7% and a pace of 4.4% in the third quarter. The bureau said lower investment accounted for most of the revision, although consumer spending also slowed, and government spending declined sharply — partly tied to the shutdown in October and November.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis separately reported that consumer spending rose 0.5% in February. Meanwhile, personal income fell 0.1%, resulting in a drop in the personal savings rate. The same report showed the Federal Reserve Board’s favorite inflation gauge unchanged from January at 2.8%. The Fed’s long-term target for inflation broadly is 2%.

Higher energy prices led a surge in inflation in March. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index, the broadest measure of inflation, rose 0.9% from February and 3.3% from the year before — the biggest one-year increase since May 2024. Energy costs increased 12.5% in the last year, including a 21.2% spike in gasoline prices just in March. Core inflation, excluding food and energy products, rose 0.3% from February and 2.6% from the year before.

The war in Iran has taken a toll on Americans’ confidence in the economy and their financial outlooks. University of Michigan said its consumer sentiment index dropped 11% in March and was 9% below where it stood a year ago. The university said sentiment fell broadly across demographic groups. Expectations for inflation reached the highest levels since a year ago, when they shot up amid uncertainty over U.S. tariff policies.

(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)

In a special episode of the Money Talk Podcast, advisors Kyle Tetting, Art Rothschild and Adam Baley review the first year since the U.S. escalated tariffs and global trade wars.

They discuss corporate uncertainty and market volatility stirred by repeated shifts in tariffs, which have varied by country and remain in flux after the Supreme Court ruled that the justification for many of the changes was illegal.

Kyle, Art and Adam related what the developments have meant so far to long-term investors and what that suggests for managing portfolios and expectations amid disruptive global events.

Learn more

(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)

A drop in residential building in January led a slight decline in U.S. construction spending. The Commerce Department reported a 0.3% drop in overall building expenditures. Housing, which accounts for more than 40% of all construction spending, fell nearly 1%, while manufacturing — about 9% of expenditures — declined 2%. Compared to January 2025, overall construction spending rose 1%, with housing up 2% and manufacturing down 15%.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics revised fourth quarter worker productivity growth to a 1.8% annual rate from a previous estimate of 2.8%. Output weakened to a 1.5% pace from an earlier estimate of 2.6%. In both estimates, the number of hours worked dropped 0.2%. Year to year, productivity rose 2.1% from 2024 to 2025. That was on pace with the current business cycle, which started at the end of 2019. The all-time average since 1947 is 2.2%. Productivity in the previous cycle, which included the Great Recession, averaged 1.5%.

No major announcements

The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the fourth week in a row and the fifth time in six weeks. Data from the Labor Department shows the moving average down 42% from its historic average since 1967. The lack of layoffs suggests continued employer reluctance to let workers go in a tight job market. Total jobless claims dropped 1.9% from the week before to 2.1 million, which was 0.8% behind the same time in 2025.

Consumer sentiment declined nearly 6% in March as the U.S.-Israel war in Iran lowered outlooks while raising expectations for inflation. Sentiment was 6.5% lower than in March 2025. Consumer forecasts for inflation rose the most since the announcement of tariff increases last April. Economists see sentiment as an indication of consumer spending, which drives about 70% of U.S. economic activity. According to the University of Michigan survey, consumers expect effects from the war to be worse in the short run, but that’s subject to how long the war lasts and the impact of higher oil prices. About one-third of the survey came before the war began.   

(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)

U.S. industrial production rose 0.2% in February, following a 0.7% gain in January, according to the Federal Reserve. Manufacturing output also increased 0.2%, led by automotive products. In the last year, total production advanced 1.4% while manufacturing rose 1.3%. The capacity utilization rate, considered a leading indicator of inflation, was unchanged in February, staying at 76.3%, well below the long-term average.

Prospects for home sellers brightened slightly in February with a bump up in the pending home sales index from the National Association of Realtors. The trade group said its index rose 1.8% from January and 0.8% from the year before, though it still stood about 28% below the 2001 index, which the Realtors consider to be a normal sales level. The association credited improved affordability for the rise in pending sales. It also said affordability could be threatened by a “sluggish” job market and rising energy costs stemming from the war in Iran.

Wholesale inflation rose more than analysts expected in February with the highest jump in goods prices since August 2023. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said its Producer Price Index rose 0.7% from January. It was up 3.4% from the year before, the most in a year. Excluding volatile prices for food, energy and trade services, the core PPI rose 0.5% from January and was 3.5% higher than the year before.

Demand for U.S. manufactured goods rose in January for the fourth time in six months. The Commerce Department reported that new orders for factory goods grew by 0.1% from December and were 3.5% ahead of their level in January 2025. Gains were led by commercial aircraft orders, which offset declines in automotive and military aircraft. Excluding the volatile transportation category, orders rose 0.4% for the month and 0.6% for the year. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investments, rose 0.1% from December and 2.9% from the year before.

As widely anticipated, the policy-making committee of the Federal Reserve Board voted to hold short-term interest rates steady. After a two-day meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee noted that inflation continued to run above the Fed’s 2% target, although the economy appeared to be expanding at a solid pace and the labor market showed little change since the last meeting.

The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the third time in four weeks to 42% below its average since 1967. The Labor Department report suggested continued reluctance among employers to let workers go. Total jobless claims dropped 3.4% from the week before to just under 2.2 million, which was 0.3% behind the same time in 2025.

The market for new houses sank to its slowest pace in more than three years in January. The annual rate of new residential sales fell nearly 18% from December and was the lowest since October 2022, the Commerce Department reported. As a result, the inventory of unsold new houses rose to a 9.7 months’ supply. The median price for a new house fell 6.8% from the year before to $400,500.

No major announcements

(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)

No major announcements

The National Association of Realtors said the pace of existing home sales rose 1.7% in February, though it was still behind the year-ago rate and around the lowest in more than 30 years. The trade group called demand “muted” as lower mortgage rates and rising wages combined to make housing more affordable than it has been since March 2022. The median sales price rose to $398,000, up 0.3% from February 2025, the 32nd consecutive increase.

The broadest measure of inflation stayed steady in February. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the Consumer Price Index rose 2.4% from February 2025, unadjusted for seasonality. That was the same rate as January and still above the Federal Reserve’s long-term target of 2%. Shelter costs led the monthly uptick. Gas prices rose for the first time in three months — prior to subsequent spikes spurred by the Iran war. The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy costs, was up 2.5% from the year before, also the same rate as January.

The U.S. trade deficit narrowed by 25% in January to $54.5 billion. The Bureau of Economic Analysis said exports rose 5.5% from December, led by non-monetary gold and other precious metals, as well as computers and civilian aircraft. Imports shrank 0.7%, led by pharmaceuticals and automobiles. Since January 2025, the trade gap contracted by almost 58% as exports expanded 10% and imports fell 11%.

The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the third time in four weeks, suggesting employers continue to be reluctant to let workers leave. According to data from the Labor Department, the four-week number was 41% below the 59-year average. More than 2.2 million individuals were receiving jobless benefits in the latest week, up 3.5% from the week before and down less than 1% from the year before.

The Commerce Department said housing starts and building permits in January continued to track below their pre-COVID levels. Although the annual pace of housing starts rose 7% from December and 9.5% from January 2025, it has been below the pre-pandemic level for nearly two years. Building permits fell both from the month before and the year before. Meanwhile, the pace of houses under construction fell again, sinking 26% below their record pace in late 2022.

The U.S. economy grew slower than previously estimated at the end of 2025. The gross domestic product rose at an annual rate of 1.7% in the fourth quarter, down from a preliminary report of 2.4% and below the 4.4% pace in the third quarter. The Bureau of Economic Analysis blamed the downward revision on weaker consumer spending and private investments and greater declines in government spending and exports. Adjusted for Inflation, GDP grew 2.1% in 2025, the weakest since a 2.1% decline in 2020.

In a possible sign of consumer restraint, personal spending fell slightly behind the pace of personal income in January, raising the personal savings rate to its highest level in six months. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a savings rate of 4.5% of disposable income, which has been below the pre-pandemic level of 7.5% for more than four years. The same report showed the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation staying above its long-range target of 2%. The personal consumption expenditure index was up 2.8% from the year before, vs. 2.9% in December. The last time it was below 2% was February 2021.

Durable goods orders were unchanged in January as a plunge in demand for commercial aircraft offset scattered gains elsewhere. The Commerce Department reported that orders overall ran 9% higher than the year before. Excluding volatile transportation orders, demand rose 0.4% from the month before and was up 4.4% from January 2025. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investments, were unchanged for the month and up 2.9% from the year before.

U.S. employers posted 6.9 million job openings in January, up marginally from December but below the pre-COVID level for the third month in a row. Postings were down 43% from their peak nearly five years ago, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Based on openings and unemployed job seekers, the supply of available labor has outpaced demand since July. That’s after more than four years of the balance favoring workers. The number and rate of workers voluntarily quitting – an indication of worker confidence – stayed below pre-pandemic levels for the 25th month in a row.

The University of Michigan said consumer sentiment reversed course following the onset of war in Iran. Polling done before Feb. 28 showed improvements in consumer outlooks, the university said, but opinions plunged thereafter regardless of respondents’ incomes, ages or political affiliations. Overall, consumers had lower expectations for their personal finances and higher forecasts for inflation.

(with Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)

A two-month expansion of the manufacturing sector slowed in February, just as it did the year before. The Institute for Supply Management said its survey-based manufacturing index signaled the second consecutive month of growth after 10 months of contraction. Prior to 2025, the index shrank 26 months in a row. The trade group said 21% of the manufacturing industry’s gross domestic product contracted in February, following 20% in January. The index suggested the overall U.S. economy was growing at an annual rate of 1.7%.

No significant reports

The service sector of the U.S. economy expanded in February for the 20th month in a row and at the highest level since mid-2022. The Institute for Supply Management said the four most impactful index components rose together for the third month in a row, repeating a streak from a year ago. The ISM’s survey of supply managers reported more uncertainty about trade policies following a U.S. Supreme Court ruling that found some tariffs illegal. But managers also suggested companies were learning to accommodate volatility in tariff rules.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said worker productivity rose at an annual pace of 2.8%  in the fourth quarter of 2025. The rate resulted from the annual pace of output rising 2.6% while hours worked decreased at a 0.2% pace. Productivity advanced 2.2% over the last four quarters, equal to the average since the end of 2019. That compared to 1.5% annual growth in the previous 12-year business cycle and an average of 2.2% since 1947. Labor costs rose 1.3% in the last year, and the share of output accrued to workers through compensation reached a record low in data going back to 1947.

The Labor Department reported the four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the second time in three weeks. It remained 40% below its average since 1967. Total claims for the latest week declined 2.9% from the week before to just under 2.2 million. That was 1% lower than the year before.

Employers cut 92,000 jobs on net in February, the second decline in three months, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate edged up to 4.4%. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly jobs report, combining payroll data and household surveys, offered mixed signals on a generally weaker labor market. On the plus side, the average hourly wage continued to outpace broad inflation, and the share of prime-age workers either employed or looking for jobs stayed near the highest level since 2001. On the other hand, a measure of underemployment remained above the pre-pandemic mark for the 26th month in a row, and — outside the pandemic — the employment of temporary-help workers dropped to the lowest count since 2012.

Retail sales declined in January as seven of 13 categories reported lower revenue, the Commerce Department reported. Gas stations were among the decliners, reflecting lower gas prices in January. But sales at bars and restaurants, an indicator of consumer confidence, fell for the third time in four months. Consumer spending drives about 70% of the U.S. economy, as measured by gross domestic product. Adjusted for inflation, total retail sales dropped for at least the second month in a row. Inflation data for October and November are missing because of a federal government shutdown.

(with Max Hoelzl, engineered by Jason Scuglik)

(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)

Markets closed for Presidents Day

No major releases

Home construction gained slightly in December but continued to provide little relief to ongoing inventory shortages. The Commerce Department said the annual rate of housing starts rose 6% from November, though it was down 7% from the year-ago pace and has remained below the pre-pandemic level since mid-2023. The pace of housing permits also rose for December but kept under the pre-pandemic rate. The number of houses under construction was down 26% from its peak in November 2022.

The Commerce Department said durable goods orders fell 1.4% in December, the second decline in three months. A dip in commercial aircraft orders led the drop-off. Excluding transportation equipment, demand for long-lasting manufactured items was up 0.9% from November and was up 2.8% from the year before. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investments, rose 0.6% for the month and were 3.5% ahead of December 2024.

The Federal Reserve reported that industrial production rose 0.7% in January, led by a broad lift in manufacturing output. The 0.6% increase in factory production was the most since February and included the first gain for auto makers since August. Industries’ capacity utilization rate rose slightly in January but stayed below the long-term average, suggesting low potential for inflation.

The U.S. trade deficit narrowed slightly in 2025, as the value of exports outpaced imports. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the 2025 trade gap was $901.5 billion, down 0.2% from the year before. Exports grew 6.2% in the year while imports rose 4.8%. Trade gaps detract from economic output, as measured by the gross domestic product. From November, the deficit widened 32.6% with exports declining 1.7% and imports rising 3.6%.

The four-week moving average for initial unemployment insurance claims declined for the first time in four weeks, remaining 39% below the 59-year average, according to new Labor Department data. Some 2.2 million Americans claimed jobless benefits in the latest week, down 0.4% from the week before and up 0.9% from the same time in 2025.

The Conference Board reported a 0.2% decline in its index of leading economic indicators in December. It was the fifth consecutive drop. In the last half of 2025, the index fell by 1.6%, an improvement from the 2.8% fall in the first half of 2026. The business research group said weak consumer expectations and meager factory orders led the decline. The Conference Board forecast 2.1% growth in U.S. gross domestic product in 2026, down slightly from estimates for 2025.

Commitments to home buying slipped in January as sales activity remained the lowest in three decades. The pending home sales index of the National Association of Realtors declined 0.8% from December and was down 0.4% from January 2025. The trade group said lower mortgage rates have improved affordability and could spur another 550,000 home buyers into the market in 2026. But with ongoing inventory shortages, additional buyers could boost prices.

The U.S. economy grew at a 1.4% annual pace in the fourth quarter, down from 4.4% in the third quarter, according to a preliminary estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Expansion of the gross domestic product slowed mostly because consumer spending decelerated but also as a result of a 17% decline in federal government spending, which shaved nearly 1.2 percentage points from the growth rate. For all of 2025, GDP rose 2.2%, down from a 2.4% increase in 2024 and the weakest in three years.

The Federal Reserve Board’s preferred measure of inflation rose to 2.9% in December, its highest rate since March 2024. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported the Personal Consumption Expenditure index was down from a four-decade high of 7.2% in June 2022 but has stayed above the Fed’s long-range target of 2% since early 2021. The report also showed consumer spending rising 0.4% in December, outpacing the 0.3% gain in personal income. As a result, the personal saving rate fell to 3.6% of disposable income, its lowest point in more than three years.

Sales of newly constructed houses slipped in December, as the annual pace dropped 1.7% from November to 745,000 houses. New home sales were up nearly 4% from the year before, as the rate rose above the pre-pandemic level for the second month in a row. The median sales price fell 2% from December 2024 to $414,400. The inventory of unsold new houses fell to 7.6 months’ worth of inventory at current sales rates, compared to less than six months’ just before the pandemic.

The University of Michigan reported that its consumer sentiment index rose slightly from January. The reading was nearly 21% below where it stood in January 2025 as nearly half of all respondents said prices were eroding their personal finances. Sentiment was higher among consumers who were wealthier and had more education. Uncertainty and inflation expectations remained elevated historically but settled down from mid-2025 highs. Economists see consumer sentiment as a precursor to consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of the U.S. gross domestic product.

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(with Max Hoelzl and Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)

No major announcements

The Commerce Department reported no change in retail sales in December, following a 0.6% decline in the value of goods and services sold in November. Eight of 13 retail categories posted lower sales, led by furniture stores. Home-and-garden centers led the five categories that gained. Adjusted for inflation, retail sales declined by 0.3% in December, at least the fourth drop since April, with data missing from October because of the federal government shutdown.

U.S. employers added 130,000 jobs in January, far above the monthly pace of 15,000 in 2025. The employment situation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics included other estimates surpassing analyst expectations, such as a 4.3% unemployment rate, down from 4.4% in December. The labor force participation rate of prime-age workers between 25 and 54 reached its highest point in nearly 25 years. Average wage increases continued to outpace overall inflation. Still, some measures suggested a harder employment market. The U-6 underemployment rate remained above the pre-pandemic level for the 26th month in a row. And employment in temporary help services — often a harbinger of job trends — stayed below the pre-pandemic mark for the 32nd month in a row.

The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the third week in a row but continued to indicate employer reluctance to let workers go. According to new data from the Labor Department, the rolling average of claims stayed 39% below the long-term average. Total jobless claims rose 3.5% from the week before, exceeding 2.2 million, but was 1.5% under the same time in 2025.

The U.S. housing market remained the worst in more than 30 years in January, as the National Association of Realtors reported existing home sales dropped another 8.4%. The annual rate of unit sales was down 4.4% from the year-ago pace. And while extraordinarily cold and snowy weather contributed to low sales in January, the trade group continued to cite lack of supply for the industry’s woes. The median sales price rose 0.9% from the year before to $396,800, the 31st consecutive increase. But average wages rose faster than prices, and mortgage rates were lower than the year before, which improved affordability to the best level for buyers since March 2022. That’s when the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates to combat high inflation.

Despite another increase in housing costs in January, the overall inflation rate dipped to its lowest level since May. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said its Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% from December, led by shelter costs and food prices, which were partially offset by a 3.2% dip in gas prices. Compared to January 2025, the broadest measure of inflation rose 2.4%. That’s still above the Federal Reserve’s long-term target of 2% but down from a four-decade high of 9.1% in June 2022. Excluding volatile costs for food and energy items, the core CPI added 0.3% from December and was up 2.5% from the year before, the lowest rate since reaching 1.6% in May 2021.