(with Max Hoelzl and Joel Dresang engineered byJason Scuglik)

The Commerce Department reported a 0.2% rise in construction spending in August, in its first release of economic data since the six-week federal government shutdown, which ended Nov. 12. Spending on housing construction accounted for 43% of the total and rose 0.8% from July. Total construction spending was 2.1% lower than its May 2024 peak. Compared to August 2024, overall construction spending fell 1.6% and dropped 1.8% for housing.

The Federal Reserve reported that it could not release its scheduled report on industrial production and capacity utilization because it relied on data from other agencies that had been affected by the federal government shutdown.

Factory orders rose in August for the first time in three months, according to the Commerce Department. Led by orders for commercial aircraft, demand for manufactured goods was up 3.3% from August 2024. Excluding the volatile transportation category, orders rose 0.1% from July and gained 0.6% from the year before. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investments, advanced 0.4% for the month and 2.3% from August 2024.

The U.S. trade deficit narrowed by 23.8% in August to $59.6 billion. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported the gap shrank because of a 0.1% rise in exports and a 5.1% decline in imports. Travel services led the slight gain in exports while sales abroad of U.S.-made goods fell, led by computers and pharmaceuticals. Through the first eight months of 2025, the trade gap widened by 25% from the year before, with a 5.1% gain in exports and a 9.2% advance in exports. Trade deficits detract from economic growth, as measured by the gross domestic product.

Housing construction data on building permits and housing starts were not available as scheduled from the Commerce Department.

The four-week moving average for initial unemployment insurance claims declined for the third time in four weeks as the Labor Department resumed reports following the six-week government shutdown. Initial claims were 38% below the all-time average and 8% above where they were just before the COVID-19 pandemic. Levels of unemployment among those covered by insurance were at four-year highs. Total claims rose slightly to just under 1.8 million, up nearly 7% from the same time last year.

U.S. employment gained in September amid more signs of labor-market weakening. The Bureau of Labor Statistics issued a shutdown-delayed report of employers adding 119,000 jobs in September, on par with the 12-month pace. But revisions from recent months showed a net loss of jobs in August, the second setback in three months. Temporary-help employment, considered a harbinger of hiring, fell to its lowest level since early 2012. Average pay stayed above the overall inflation rate. The unemployment rate – determined separately from household surveys – rose to 4.4%, the highest in four years. The government said the shutdown precluded it from conducting household surveys in October, meaning it will fail to deliver that monthly report for the first time in 77 years.

Because of the federal government shutdown, the Conference Board could not report on its October index of leading economic indicators.

The National Association of Realtors reported a 1.2% rise in existing home sales in October. The annual sales rate was up 1.7% from the year before to 4.1 million houses and condos. That’s level with what the trade group reported for all of 2024, marking the lowest level in 30 years. The association credited lower mortgage rates for improving sales recently, but inventories remained below historically sustainable rates. The median sales price rose to $415,200, up 2.1% from October 2024, the 28th consecutive year-to-year gain.

Considered a precursor to spending, consumer sentiment, sank again in November, dropping 4.9% from October and 29% from where the index was in November 2024. The longstanding report from the University of Michigan noted a slight gain after the federal government shutdown ended, but consumers expressed continued concerns about high prices and weakened incomes. The university said recent market sell-offs particularly dimmed the view of stockholders. Expectations for inflation inched down but remained higher than they were to start the year.

(with Max Hoelzl and Joel Dresang engineered by Jason Scuglik)

No major announcements

No major announcements

No major announcements

October updates on the Consumer Price Index, the broadest measure of inflation, were not available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics because of the federal government shutdown. Although the shutdown officially ended Wednesday ­­­— at 43 days, the longest in U.S. history, agencies are expected to take some time to resume collection, analysis and reporting of data.

The Labor Department report on initial claims for unemployment were not available for the seventh week in a row because of the federal government shutdown.

The Commerce Department failed to release October retail sales data as scheduled because of the federal government shutdown. Retail sales represent about two-thirds of U.S. consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of the country’s gross domestic product.

Because of the federal government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics did not report on the October Producer Price Index, which tracks inflation on the wholesale level.

(with Max Hoelzl and Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)

The manufacturing sector contracted in October for the eighth month in a row and the 34thrd time in 36 months, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The trade group’s index, based on surveys of industry purchasing managers, showed continued concerns about the uncertainty and unpredictability surrounding tariff policies. The group said based on past index readings the overall U.S. economy expanded for the 66th straight month, growing at an annual rate of 1.8%.

Because of the federal government shutdown, the Commerce Department did not release a report on construction spending in September.

The September report on the U.S. trade deficit was not published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis because of the federal government shutdown.

The Commerce Department did not release a report on factory orders for September because of the federal government shutdown.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics did not report on September job openings and labor turnover because of the federal government shutdown.

The service sector of the U.S. economy expanded in October for the fourth time in five months, following no change in September. The Institute for Supply Management said its services index rose at the fastest pace since February, as both business activity and new orders grew. The trade group said its survey of purchasing managers showed service-sector employment slumping for the fifth month in a row, suggesting a lack of confidence in the economy. Respondents cited concerns about tariffs and the federal government shutdown. The ISM said based on index history, the U.S. gross domestic product was growing at an annual rate of 1.2%.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics did not release a scheduled report on worker productivity in the third quarter because of the federal government shutdown.

The Labor Department’s weekly report on initial claims for unemployment insurance was not available for the sixth week in a row because of the federal government shutdown.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics did not report on October payroll and unemployment data because of the federal government shutdown.

The University of Michigan said consumer sentiment continued sinking as survey respondents felt less certain about their current personal finances and more pessimistic about business conditions next year. Overall sentiment dropped 6% from September and 30% from the same time last year. Expectations for inflation rose to 4.7% a year from now but dipped to 3.6% longer term. Consumers expressed continued concerns about the impact of trade wars and worries about economic fallout from the federal government shutdown.

(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)

An indicator of demand for manufactured products, the Commerce Department’s report on durable goods orders, was unavailable because of the federal government shutdown.

Housing prices continued slowing in August, according to the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller national home price index. The measure showed a 1.5% year-to-year gain in residential prices, the lowest in more than two years and below the overall inflation rate for the fourth straight month. An S&P analyst said the housing market has been trying to find a sustainable equilibrium following its post-pandemic boom. He added, “(H)omeowners are watching their real equity erode while buyers face the dual challenge of elevated prices and high borrowing costs.”

The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index moved sideways in October. The index dipped slightly from September with lower expectations offsetting consumers’ marginally higher opinion of the present situation. The business research group said pessimism about the future continued to suggest an impending recession for the ninth month in a row. Prices and inflation remained the top concerns among survey respondents. Mentions of tariffs declined from earlier surveys but stayed elevated. Some consumers expressed dismay about the federal government shutdown.

The National Association of Realtors said its pending home sales index was unchanged in September and down 0.9% from the year before. The trade association said lower mortgage rates and increased wealth effect – from record-high stock prices and elevated home values – could not overcome apparent softening in the job market.  The pending sales index remained more than 25% below its 2001 base, which the Realtors consider a normal level of sales activity.

As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee lowered short-term lending rates by one quarter of a percentage point for the second time in six weeks. The Federal Reserve Board’s policy-making body said continued consideration of slowing labor markets prompted it to loosen monetary control, though it also expressed reluctance to lower rates while inflation stayed above the long-term target of 2%. The September Consumer Price Index showed broad inflation rising at a 3% annual rate, although more complete data reports have been curtailed by the federal government shutdown.

The broadest measure of U.S. economic output, the quarterly report on gross domestic product, was not available from the Bureau of Economic Analysis because of the federal government shutdown. The GDP report includes the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditure index.

The Labor Department’s report on initial unemployment insurance claims was not available for the fifth week in a row because of the federal government shutdown.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis did not release its consumer spending report for September because of the federal government shutdown.

(with Max Hoelzl and Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)

The Conference Board said its September index of leading economic indicators was not available because of the government shutdown. The indicator from the business research group relies mostly on government data to show trends in the U.S. economy.

No major releases

No major releases

The federal government shutdown delayed the Labor Department’s weekly report of initial unemployment claims, which gauges the job market and employers’ willingness to let go of workers.

The National Association of Realtors credited lower mortgage rates and improved affordability for helping to boost existing home sales in September. Sales rose 1.5% from the pace in August and were up 4.1% from the year before. At an annual rate of 4.06 million houses, sales were slightly below the 2024 final which was the lowest since 1995. The trade association said sales inventories rose to a five-year high in September but remained below the pre-pandemic level. The median sale price rose to $415,200, up 2.1% from the year before, the 27th consecutive year-to-year gain.

A 4.1% jump in gasoline prices led the cost increases that pushed inflation higher in September. Based on data collected before the government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said the Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% from August and was up 3% from the same time last year. The year-to-year inflation rate was the highest since January and marked the 55th straight month above the Federal Reserve Board’s target of 2%. In that period, inflation ranged from 9.1% in mid-2022 to 2.3% in April. The core CPI, which strips out volatile costs for food and energy, rose 0.3% from August and was up 3% from September 2024.

Based on CPI data, the Social Security Administration announced a 2.8% increase to benefits in 2026. That’s up from a 2.5% raise in 2025 and is on par with the average increase in the previous 10 years. The average cost-of-living adjustment since Social Security began adjusting benefits to inflation in 1975 was 3.7%. Social Security said the average retired recipient can expect an added $56 in their benefit checks, beginning in January.

Often a precursor to spending, consumer sentiment slid marginally in October amid ongoing concerns about prices and inflation. The University of Michigan reported that its survey-based index declined 2.7% from September and was down 24% from October 2024. University researchers said expectations for inflation remained well above the Fed target though below highs set earlier in the year after initial announcements of tariff increases. Just 2% of respondents made unprompted references to the government shutdown, down from 10% In the second month of the last shutdown, in 2019.

(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered byJason Scuglik)

No major announcements

No major announcements

The Federal Reserve Board said U.S. economic activity changed little since its previous Beige Book. The latest report — a collection of unofficial anecdotes gathered in each of the central bank’s 12 districts — showed weak consumer spending overall and stable but muted demand for workers. According to the Fed, three of its districts reported slight to moderate growth in the six weeks up to Oct. 6. Five districts noted little change from September’s report. Four revealed slight declines in economic activity. Although the Beige Book provides relatively soft evidence of the country’s economic state, harder data is scarce since the federal government shut down Oct. 1.

A report on the September Producer Price Index, measuring inflation on the wholesale level, was not available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics because of the government shutdown.

A Commerce Department report on September retail sales was not released because of the government shutdown. Retail sales account for about two-thirds of consumer spending, which drives about 70% of U.S. economic activity.

The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims was not available from the Labor Department because of the shutdown.

An update on the U.S. housing market, via a Commerce Department report on September housing starts and building permits was not available because of the shutdown.

The Federal Reserve was not able to release its September report on the progress of U.S. industrial production and capacity utilization because it relies on data from other government agencies. Because of the shutdown, the data was not available to the Fed.

(with Max Hoelzl, and Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)

No major announcements

The scheduled release of August data on the U.S. trade deficit did not occur because of the federal government shutdown. The deficit detracts from U.S. economic output, as measured by the gross domestic product.

Consumers showed more caution about spending in August, as the amount of credit card debt outstanding fell for the third time in four months. The Federal Reserve Board reported that so-called revolving debt declined at an annual rate of 5.5% from July. The rate sank 3.3% from its peak last October. Economists watch revolving debt as a sign of confidence among consumers, whose spending accounts for about 70% of gross domestic product. Total consumer debt outstanding, including car financing and student loans, rose in August at a 0.1% annual rate.

No major announcements

A scheduled report on unemployment insurance claims was not released because of the federal government shutdown. The claims measure job cuts by U.S. employers.

A preliminary reading of consumer sentiment in October showed no meaningful change in the dour outlook of Americans. The University of Michigan reported that its longstanding survey-based index remained more than 20% below where it was a year ago. Consumers continued to express concerns over high prices and weakened job prospects. The government shutdown Oct. 1 appeared to have little effect on their sentiment. Survey respondents said they expect inflation to reach 3.7% in the next 12 months and 4.6% longer term, ranging above the Federal Reserve’s long-term target of 2%.

(with Jason Scuglik, Joel Dresang )

Demand for housing rose in August, according to the pending home sales index from the National Association of Realtors. The index, based on the number of houses sold in 2001, increased to 74.7, up 4% from July and 3.8% ahead of where it stood in August 2024. The trade group said lower mortgage rates were encouraging more home shoppers, especially in the Midwest, where improved affordability also factored in. Pending sales in the Midwest rose 8.7% from July, the Realtors reported, and were up 6.7% from the year before.

Housing prices slowed again in July, staying below the overall inflation rate for the third month in a row, according to the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller home price index. Compared to the year before, the national index rose 1.7%, one of the narrowest increases in a decade, compared to a 2.7% increase in inflation in July, as measured by the Consumer Price Index. An analyst with the index said higher mortgage rates and stretched affordability have weakened demand for housing. He said housing prices have cooled from the hot market following the COVID-19 pandemic and should track closer to overall inflation, or below.

The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index fell in September to its lowest level since April. Consumers particularly downgraded their assessments of current conditions, with their confidence in the job market decreasing for the ninth straight month. Low expectations remained at recessionary levels for the eighth month in a row. The business research group said inflation edged out tariffs as consumers’ top concern.

Unemployed job seekers outnumbered job openings in August for the first time in more than four years. A new report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed demand for workers continuing to erode compared to supply. Employers posted nearly 7.2 million openings in August, up 3% from July but down 5.5% from the year before. Demand for employees reached an all-time high of 12 million openings in March 2022 but remains above the pre-pandemic level of 7 million. The rate of employees quitting their jobs – a sign of worker confidence – was below the  February 2020 level for the 22nd month in a row.

Manufacturing continued its slump in September, according to the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index. The index signaled contraction for the seventh month in a row and the 33rd time in 35 months. The production component of the index showed expansion. The employment component indicated contraction for the eighth month in a row. Purchasing managers surveyed by the trade group frequently cited tariffs among their challenges. The ISM said the index reading suggested the U.S. economy is growing at an annual pace of 1.9%.

ADP said its national employment report showed private employers had a net loss of 32,000 jobs in September. The payroll services company said many of the jobs lost were in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services and financial activities. Compared to September 2024, private employment was up 4.5%. ADP reported that wages also rose 4.5% from the year before. An economist for ADP said the report validated other signs that employers are being cautious about hiring.

A scheduled release of construction spending was delayed because of the federal government shutdown.

Scheduled reports on unemployment insurance claims and manufacturing orders were not released because of the federal government shutdown.

Following three months of weak expansion, the U.S. services sector reached a break-even point between expansion and contraction in September. The Institute for Supply Management said its services index hit 50 for the first time since 2010. The key business activity component of the index contracted for the first time since May 2020 while growth in new orders slowed and hiring slumped for the fourth month in a row. The trade group said companies surveyed reported moderate to weak growth overall. Based on the past relationship between the index and gross domestic product, ISM said the economy appeared to be growing at an annual rate of 0.4%.

The September report on U.S. payroll employment and individual employment situations was delayed because of the federal government shutdown.

(with Max Hoelzl,engineered by Jason Scuglik)

No major releases

No major releases

The seasonally adjusted annual rate of new home sales soared 20.5% in August. The Commerce Department reported the sales rate was up more than 15% from the year before. At a pace of 800,000 new houses a month, sales were at their highest level since January 2022, just before the Federal Reserve Board began a series of interest rate increases aimed at lowering decades-high inflation. The supply of new houses for sale dipped to its lowest level in more than two years. The median sales price was $413,500, up 1.9% from August 2024.

The Commerce Department said orders for durable goods rose in August for the first time in three months. Demand for long-lasting manufactured products gained 2.9%, driven by orders for commercial aircraft. Excluding volatile costs for transportation goods, orders advanced 0.4%. Compared to August 2024, orders rose 1.7% overall and 1.9% excluding transportation. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investments, added 0.6% from July and were up 2.4% from the year before.

The U.S. economy grew at an annual pace of 3.8% in the second quarter of 2025, according to the final of three estimates of the gross domestic product. The Bureau of Economic Analysis revised the rate from 3.5% in the second estimated because of evidence of stronger consumer spending, which rose at a 2.5% annual pace, vs. 1.6% in the previous report. Overall, GDP rebounded from a decline of 0.6% in the first quarter, which was driven by a surge in imports leading up to increased U.S. tariffs on goods and services from other countries. The personal consumption expenditure index showed inflation rising 2.4% from the second quarter of 2024, thus continuing to outpace the 2% long-range target set by the Federal Reserve Board.

The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims dipped for the second week in a row. The average was down 35% from its 58-year average, highlighting an ongoing reluctance by employers to let workers go. The Labor Department said nearly 1.8 million Americans were claiming unemployment compensation in the latest week, down 2.4% from the week before and up 5.7% from the same time last year.

Blaming elevated mortgage rates and low inventories, the National Association of Realtors reported a drop in existing home sales in August. The annual rate of 4 million houses sold was down 0.2% from July and up 1.8% from August 2024. Some 4.1 million sold in all of 2024, which was the lowest since 1995. The trade association said it expects decreasing mortgage rates and growing inventories to spur sales in coming months. It also noted the support of the wealth effect from higher equity in stocks and housing. The median sales price in August was $422,600, up 2% from the year before, the 26th consecutive month-to-month increase.  

Accounting for about 70% of U.S. gross domestic product, consumer spending is a key economic indicator. In its monthly reports on personal income and outlays, the Bureau of Economic Analysis provides estimates on consumer spending as well as updates on the personal consumption expenditure index, the Federal Reserve Board’s preferred measure of inflation.

Another report, from the University of Michigan, uses surveys to measure consumer sentiment, which is considered an indication of future consumer spending. The sentiment index includes consumer opinions on current economic conditions as well as expectations for both the economy and personal finances.

with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik

No major announcements

In a sign of consumer spending resilience, the Commerce Department reported a 0.6% rise in retail sales in August. Sales fell in only four of 13 categories: Furniture stores, health-and-beauty centers, general merchandisers and miscellaneous retailers. Gainers were led by a 2% increase from online retailers. Excluding sales at car dealers and gas stations, retail revenue grew 0.7%. Adjusted for inflation, total retail sales rose 0.2% in August.

U.S. industrial output rose 0.1% in August, following a 0.4% setback in July. The auto industry was the chief driver, the Federal Reserve reported. Output at U.S. car makers increased 1.3% from July. Since August 2024, overall industrial production was up 0.9%, with manufacturing also up 0.9%. Meanwhile, capacity utilization – an early indicator of rising inflation – rose marginally but remained below the 53-year average, last reached in late 2022.

Rates of housing starts and building permits continued to slide in August, according to the Commerce Department. The annual pace of starts dropped nearly 8.5% from July and was off 6% from the year before, with critical single-family structures down nearly 12% from August 2024. For the 17th straight month, housing starts lagged the level set just before the COVID-19 pandemic, which was the fastest pace of building since late 2006. Meanwhile, permits – an indication of future housing construction – declined to the lowest level since May 2020, down almost 4% from July and 11% lower than August 2024. The pace of houses under construction continued falling from its all-time peak two years ago.

The policy-making body of the Federal Reserve Board reduced short-term lending rates by a quarter point and signaled more cuts possibly before the end of the year. The Federal Open Market Committee cited labor market risks as its chief reason to lower rates for the first time since December. It referred to “somewhat elevated” inflation, which could deter more aggressive rate reductions. The Fed has a dual mandate from Congress to keep prices stable and employment maximized.

The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims declined for the first time in six weeks. The measure was 34% below the all-time average and 16% above its low point just before the COVID-19 pandemic, according to data from the Labor Department. More than 1.8 million Americans were receiving jobless benefits in the latest week, down nearly 5% from the week before and up 6% from the same time last year.

The Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators declined 0.5% in August following a revise increase on 0.1% in July. The six-month slide of the index worsened to 2.8% from a 0.9% decline in the previous six months. The business research group blamed tariffs for dampening U.S. growth and said only stock prices and credit indicators have made positive contributions to the index. Weaker factory orders, consumer expectations and labor market indicators were the biggest deterrents. The group forecast a 1.6% rise in gross domestic product for 2025, “a substantial slowdown” from 2.8% in 2024.

No major announcements