(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)

Markets closed for Presidents Day

No major releases

Home construction gained slightly in December but continued to provide little relief to ongoing inventory shortages. The Commerce Department said the annual rate of housing starts rose 6% from November, though it was down 7% from the year-ago pace and has remained below the pre-pandemic level since mid-2023. The pace of housing permits also rose for December but kept under the pre-pandemic rate. The number of houses under construction was down 26% from its peak in November 2022.

The Commerce Department said durable goods orders fell 1.4% in December, the second decline in three months. A dip in commercial aircraft orders led the drop-off. Excluding transportation equipment, demand for long-lasting manufactured items was up 0.9% from November and was up 2.8% from the year before. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investments, rose 0.6% for the month and were 3.5% ahead of December 2024.

The Federal Reserve reported that industrial production rose 0.7% in January, led by a broad lift in manufacturing output. The 0.6% increase in factory production was the most since February and included the first gain for auto makers since August. Industries’ capacity utilization rate rose slightly in January but stayed below the long-term average, suggesting low potential for inflation.

The U.S. trade deficit narrowed slightly in 2025, as the value of exports outpaced imports. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the 2025 trade gap was $901.5 billion, down 0.2% from the year before. Exports grew 6.2% in the year while imports rose 4.8%. Trade gaps detract from economic output, as measured by the gross domestic product. From November, the deficit widened 32.6% with exports declining 1.7% and imports rising 3.6%.

The four-week moving average for initial unemployment insurance claims declined for the first time in four weeks, remaining 39% below the 59-year average, according to new Labor Department data. Some 2.2 million Americans claimed jobless benefits in the latest week, down 0.4% from the week before and up 0.9% from the same time in 2025.

The Conference Board reported a 0.2% decline in its index of leading economic indicators in December. It was the fifth consecutive drop. In the last half of 2025, the index fell by 1.6%, an improvement from the 2.8% fall in the first half of 2026. The business research group said weak consumer expectations and meager factory orders led the decline. The Conference Board forecast 2.1% growth in U.S. gross domestic product in 2026, down slightly from estimates for 2025.

Commitments to home buying slipped in January as sales activity remained the lowest in three decades. The pending home sales index of the National Association of Realtors declined 0.8% from December and was down 0.4% from January 2025. The trade group said lower mortgage rates have improved affordability and could spur another 550,000 home buyers into the market in 2026. But with ongoing inventory shortages, additional buyers could boost prices.

The U.S. economy grew at a 1.4% annual pace in the fourth quarter, down from 4.4% in the third quarter, according to a preliminary estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Expansion of the gross domestic product slowed mostly because consumer spending decelerated but also as a result of a 17% decline in federal government spending, which shaved nearly 1.2 percentage points from the growth rate. For all of 2025, GDP rose 2.2%, down from a 2.4% increase in 2024 and the weakest in three years.

The Federal Reserve Board’s preferred measure of inflation rose to 2.9% in December, its highest rate since March 2024. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported the Personal Consumption Expenditure index was down from a four-decade high of 7.2% in June 2022 but has stayed above the Fed’s long-range target of 2% since early 2021. The report also showed consumer spending rising 0.4% in December, outpacing the 0.3% gain in personal income. As a result, the personal saving rate fell to 3.6% of disposable income, its lowest point in more than three years.

Sales of newly constructed houses slipped in December, as the annual pace dropped 1.7% from November to 745,000 houses. New home sales were up nearly 4% from the year before, as the rate rose above the pre-pandemic level for the second month in a row. The median sales price fell 2% from December 2024 to $414,400. The inventory of unsold new houses fell to 7.6 months’ worth of inventory at current sales rates, compared to less than six months’ just before the pandemic.

The University of Michigan reported that its consumer sentiment index rose slightly from January. The reading was nearly 21% below where it stood in January 2025 as nearly half of all respondents said prices were eroding their personal finances. Sentiment was higher among consumers who were wealthier and had more education. Uncertainty and inflation expectations remained elevated historically but settled down from mid-2025 highs. Economists see consumer sentiment as a precursor to consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of the U.S. gross domestic product.

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(with Max Hoelzl and Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)

No major announcements

The Commerce Department reported no change in retail sales in December, following a 0.6% decline in the value of goods and services sold in November. Eight of 13 retail categories posted lower sales, led by furniture stores. Home-and-garden centers led the five categories that gained. Adjusted for inflation, retail sales declined by 0.3% in December, at least the fourth drop since April, with data missing from October because of the federal government shutdown.

U.S. employers added 130,000 jobs in January, far above the monthly pace of 15,000 in 2025. The employment situation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics included other estimates surpassing analyst expectations, such as a 4.3% unemployment rate, down from 4.4% in December. The labor force participation rate of prime-age workers between 25 and 54 reached its highest point in nearly 25 years. Average wage increases continued to outpace overall inflation. Still, some measures suggested a harder employment market. The U-6 underemployment rate remained above the pre-pandemic level for the 26th month in a row. And employment in temporary help services — often a harbinger of job trends — stayed below the pre-pandemic mark for the 32nd month in a row.

The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the third week in a row but continued to indicate employer reluctance to let workers go. According to new data from the Labor Department, the rolling average of claims stayed 39% below the long-term average. Total jobless claims rose 3.5% from the week before, exceeding 2.2 million, but was 1.5% under the same time in 2025.

The U.S. housing market remained the worst in more than 30 years in January, as the National Association of Realtors reported existing home sales dropped another 8.4%. The annual rate of unit sales was down 4.4% from the year-ago pace. And while extraordinarily cold and snowy weather contributed to low sales in January, the trade group continued to cite lack of supply for the industry’s woes. The median sales price rose 0.9% from the year before to $396,800, the 31st consecutive increase. But average wages rose faster than prices, and mortgage rates were lower than the year before, which improved affordability to the best level for buyers since March 2022. That’s when the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates to combat high inflation.

Despite another increase in housing costs in January, the overall inflation rate dipped to its lowest level since May. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said its Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% from December, led by shelter costs and food prices, which were partially offset by a 3.2% dip in gas prices. Compared to January 2025, the broadest measure of inflation rose 2.4%. That’s still above the Federal Reserve’s long-term target of 2% but down from a four-decade high of 9.1% in June 2022. Excluding volatile costs for food and energy items, the core CPI added 0.3% from December and was up 2.5% from the year before, the lowest rate since reaching 1.6% in May 2021.

(with Max Hoelzl, engineered by Jason Scuglik)

The manufacturing sector expanded in January for the first time in a year and only the second time in more than three years, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The trade group’s index, based on surveys of manufacturing supply managers, showed new orders growing for the first time since August and at the fastest pace in four years. Production also rose the most since early 2022, while employment contracted for the 28th month in a row. The ISM said 12% of manufacturing gross domestic product was in strong contraction in January, compared to 43% in December.

No major releases, in part because of the partial shutdown of the federal government.

Service industries, the largest segment of the U.S. economy, showed continued expansion in January. The Institute for Supply Management’s service index indicated growth for the 19th month in a row. The index level was unchanged from December and the highest since October 2024. Supply managers surveyed for the report continued to voice concerns over the impact and uncertainty of tariffs. The trade group said a trend in price increases deserved monitoring.

The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the second week in a row but continued to suggest a historically tight job market. According to data from the Labor Department, the latest four-week average was 41% below the all-time average, dating back to 1967. As an early measure of layoff trends, new jobless claims have signaled reluctance by employers to let workers go. Total claims fell 4.2% from the week before to just below 2.2 million, which was 1.2% lower than the year before.

And while employers appear reluctant to dismiss workers, the number of job openings dropped in December to the lowest level since the pandemic. The Bureau of Labor Statistics counted 6.5 million openings in December, down from a record 12.1 million in March 2022 and below the pre-pandemic mark for the first time since September 2020. The number and rate of worker quitting their jobs — a measure of worker confidence — have stayed below pre-pandemic levels since the end of 2023.

A report on jobs and employment from the Bureau of Labor Statistics was delayed because of the partial shutdown of the federal government.

The University of Michigan said a preliminary measure of its consumer sentiment index showed essentially no change from January. Though it was the highest reading since August, it was down 11% from February 2025 and remained “relatively low from a historical perspective.” The survey-based report found consumers continuing to be concerned about their personal finances because of high prices and weakened job prospects. Stockholders tended to feel more confident. Expectations for inflation continued to outpace expectations before the pandemic.

(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)

Orders for commercial aircraft boosted durable goods orders in November, the Commerce Department reported. Total orders rose 5.3% from October, the third increase in four months, and were 7.3% ahead of their level in November 2024. Excluding transportation equipment, orders rose 0.5% for the month and were up 2.4% from the year before. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investment, gained 0.7% from October and were up 3.1% from November 2024.

Housing prices increased again in November, though less than overall inflation, according to the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller national index. The 1.4% gain was unchanged from October and compared to a 2.7% year-to-year increase in the cost of living, as measured by the Consumer Price Index. An executive with the index said it indicated the U.S. housing market is in a period of tepid growth. Data showed a divergence of markets geographically with prices rising 5.7% in Chicago and declining 3.9% in Tampa. Month to month seasonally adjusted prices fell in 15 of 20 major cities.

The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index fell in January to its lowest point since May 2014. The business research group said expectations sank across demographics including age, income and party affiliation. Expectation levels continued to signal near-term economic recession. Economists follow consumer confidence as a precursor to consumer spending, which drives about 70% of U.S. economic activity.

The policy-making body of the Federal Reserve Board announced no change to the overnight funds rate. Citing stabilizing unemployment and somewhat elevated inflation, the Federal Open Market Committee said it would hold the fed funds rate after dropping it three times in the last half of 2025. The rate is what banks charge one another. The Fed tends to raise it when it’s more concerned about inflation and to lower it when unemployment gets worrisome.

The U.S. trade deficit nearly doubled in November, widening by 94.6% to $56.8 billion. Exports declined as imports rose as global trade continued to be volatile amid fluctuating U.S. tariffs. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, exports fell by 3.6% from October, led by sales of non-monetary gold and pharmaceutical products. Imports gained 5%, led by increased U.S. purchases of overseas pharmaceuticals and computers. Through the first 11 months of 2025, the deficit — which detracts from gross domestic product — widened 4%; exports gained 6.3%, and imports rose 5.8%.

The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the first time in four weeks but continued to show overall tight hiring conditions. The average was 43% below the all-time average dating back to 1967. The Labor Department said just under 2.3 million Americans claimed jobless benefits in the latest week, down 3% from the week before and a smidge below the same time in 2024.

Worker productivity increased at a 4.9% annual rate in the third quarter, unchanged from a previous estimate. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported worker output rose at a 5.4% pace while hours worked rose 0.5%. Hourly compensation advanced at a 2.9% pace in the quarter, resulting in a decline of 1.9% in labor costs. Year to year, productivity rose 1.9%, just below the 2% annual average in the business cycle that started at the end of 2019. In the previous cycle, beginning at the end of 2007, productivity averaged 1.5%, vs. a 2.1% average gain since 1947.

A rise in demand for commercial aircraft boosted factory orders in November. The Commerce Department reported that total orders rose 2.7% from October, the third increase in four months. Demand for manufactured goods was up 3.4% from the year before. Excluding volatile orders for transportation equipment, orders rose 0.2% for the month and were up 0.7% from November 2024. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investments, rose 0.4% from October and were up 3.1% from November 2024.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that wholesale inflation rose 0.5% in December, as prices on goods were unchanged while services increased. The Producer Price Index advanced 3% from the year before, down from 3.5% in 2024 but up from as low as 2.4% in June. The Federal Reserve target for long-term inflation is 2%. Excluding volatile prices for food, energy and trade services, the so-called core PPI rose 0.4% from November and was up 3.5% from December 2024.

(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)

Markets and government offices closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Day

No major releases

U.S. construction spending rose in October for the fourth time in five months. Data from the Commerce Department, delayed by the government shutdown in the fall, showed the seasonally adjusted annual rate of building expenditures up 0.5% from September. It was 1% below its year-ago pace. Spending on residential construction — accounting for 57% of the total — slipped 1.2% from the October 2024 pace. Manufacturing accounted for 10% of all construction spending and was down 11% from a record high last May.

An early indicator of home sales declined in December. The National Association of Realtors’ index of pending home sales dropped 9.3% from November and was down 3% from December 2024. The trade group said several seasonal factors could have affected the reading but that low inventories probably dampened demand. At 71.8, the index of pending sales was nearly 30% below what the association considers normal. Total sales for 2025 tied with the year before for the lowest since 1995.

The U.S. economy grew at an annual pace of 4.4% in the third quarter, up from 3.8% in the previous three months and the highest rate in two years. The Bureau of Economic Analysis said the acceleration in gross domestic product was led by consumer spending, exports, government spending and investments. A decline in imports also contributed to the third-quarter gain.
The 4.4% pace was revised from 4.3% in an earlier estimate. Since the third quarter of 2024 and adjusting for inflation, GDP rose 2.3%.

The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the third week in a row and the fourth time in five weeks to reach the lowest level in two years. The average was 44% below the all-time average dating back to 1967. The Labor Department said 2.3 million Americans claimed jobless benefits in the latest week, up more than 5% from the week before and 1.5% higher than the same time in 2025.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis said consumer spending rose 0.5% in November, outpacing a 0.3% increase in personal income. As a result, the personal saving rate dipped to 3.5% of disposable income, the lowest in more than three years. The personal consumption expenditures index, the Federal Reserve Board’s favorite measure of inflation, rose 2.8% from November 2024, up from 2.7% in October. The inflation rate remained above the Fed’s 2% long-term target but was below a four-decade high exceeding 7% in June 2022.

The University of Michigan said its consumer sentiment index improved from December with a small, broadly based increase. The index rose 6.6% from the month before and remained 21% below where it stood in January 2025, as consumers continued to complain about high prices and expressed concerns about weakening job conditions. Expectations for inflation ran at 4% in the next year and 3.3% longer term. Consumers’ outlook for inflation stayed high historically but was down from mid-2025 peaks, which were blown up by worries over global trade wars.

The U.S. economy should slow in 2026, the Conference Board said, based on its November report of leading economic indicators. The business research group said its index declined 0.3% in November after dropping 0.1% in October, led by weak consumer expectations and falling demand for manufactured goods. Among the positive indicators were fewer unemployment insurance claims and more factory hours worked. For the latest six months, the index fell 1.2%, compared to a decline of 2.6% in the previous six months.

(with Max Hoelzl,Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)

No major announcements

The broadest measure of inflation rose slightly in December, staying above the Federal Reserve Board target though below the four-decade peak in 2022. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the Consumer Price Index, rose 0.3% from November, led by shelter costs and food prices, offset by lower gas prices. The CPI advanced 2.7% from December 2027, unchanged from the November pace. That’s down from 9.1% in June 2022 but above the Fed’s long-range target of 2%. Excluding volatile prices for food and energy items, the core CPI rose 0.2% from November and was 2.6% ahead of December 2024, the slowest pace for core inflation since March 2021.

The Commerce Department reported a slight decline in the annual rate of new home sales in October. All the growth occurred in southern states and was nearly 19% ahead of the year-ago pace. Despite declining 0.1% from September, the annual sales rate of new houses stayed above the pre-pandemic level for the third month in a row. An increase in sales of houses for less than $400,000 brought the median sales price down to $392,300, 8% below the mark in October 2024.

The Commerce Department said retail sales rose 0.6% in November after slipping 0.1% in October. The latest gain suggested continued resilience in the economy, with 10 of 13 retail categories expanding, led by car dealers, gas stations, home-and-garden centers and sporting goods/hobby stores. Sales at bars and restaurants also rose in November, rising for the fifth time in six months. Retail sales represent about two-thirds of consumer spending, which drives more than two-thirds of economic growth.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that wholesale inflation rose 0.2% in November, as prices on goods increased while services were unchanged. A 4.6% jump in energy prices accounted for 90% of the rise in the cost of goods. The Producer Price Index advanced 3% from the year before, down from the record 11.7% reached in March 2022. Excluding volatile prices for food, energy and trade services, the so-called core PPI also rose 0.2% from October and was up 3.5% from the year before, the most since March.

Housing sales continued to tank in 2025. The National Association of Realtors reported 4.06 million houses and condominium sold, the same as 2024, and the lowest since 1995. Existing home sales account for 90% of the residential market. The trade group cited record-high prices and scant supply. The median sales price for December reached $405,400, up 0.4% from the year before, the 30th straight increase. The number of unsold houses on the market fell below 1.2 million, or 3.3 months’ worth at the current sales pace.

The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell to its lowest level since January  2024, dropping 43% below the all-time average. An indicator of employers’ willingness to let workers go, the moving average was 1% above where it stood just before the COVID-19 pandemic, according to Labor Department data. Total claims for jobless benefits rose 16% from the week before to 2.2 million, affected in part by year-end layoffs. That was up 0.2% from the year before.

Industrial production rose in December for the second month in a row and gained 2% from the year before. The Federal Reserve Board said production from factories increased 0.2% from November and also was up 2% from December 2024. Industries’ capacity utilization rate — covering manufacturing, mining and utilities — also rose for the second consecutive month, though it stayed below its 53-year average, suggesting higher prices weren’t imminent.

(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)

The Institute for Supply Management reported that its manufacturing index signaled contraction in December for the 10th month in a row and the 36th time in 38 months. Based on surveys of supply managers, the index showed that the industry slump accelerated for the third month in a row. The trade group said 85% of the sector’s gross domestic product shrank in December, compared to 58% in November, and 43% of manufacturing GDP was in strong contraction, vs. 39% the month before. The ISM said the index suggested the overall U.S. economy was growing at an annual rate of 1.6%.

No significant reports or announcements

A report from the Commerce Department showed manufacturing orders shrinking in October for the third time in five months. The value of orders fell 1.3% from September and was 3.3% ahead of October 2024. Excluding volatile orders for transportation equipment – most notably commercial aircraft, orders sank 0.2% for the month and gained 0.8% from the year before. A proxy for business investments was up 0.5% from October and 3.1% from the year before.

U.S. employers posted 7.1 million job openings in November, as both hiring and separations remained stagnant. Openings were down from a record high of 12.2 million in March 2022 and remained above the pre-pandemic level of about 7 million. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that both the number and proportion of workers quitting their jobs – an indicator of worker confidence – stayed below the pre-pandemic level for the 23rd month in a row.

The U.S. services sector grew at a faster pace for the third month in a row in December, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The trade group’s services index showed most components improved from November. Employment expanded for the first time in seven months. The 12-month average for the index has been dropping for nearly four years. Supply managers told the ISM they’re concerned about prices, tariffs and seasonal factors.

The U.S. trade deficit narrowed 39% in October to $29.4 billion, the slimmest margin since mid-2009, amid continued adjustments to shifting tariffs. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, exports rose by 2.6% from September, with non-monetary gold and other precious metals offsetting a decline in other goods sold abroad. Imports fell 3.2%, led by pharmaceuticals. Through the first 10 months of 2025, the deficit – which detracts from gross domestic product – widened 7.7%; exports gained 6.3%, while imports rose 6.6%.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said worker productivity rose at an annual rate of 4.9% in the third quarter, the fastest pace in two years. Measured year over year, productivity advanced 1.9% from the third quarter of 2024. That compares to an average 1.5% annual gain since the end of 2019, which is below the 2.1% average since 1947. The productivity report showed unit labor costs falling at a 1.9% annual pace during the latest quarter, as output rose faster than compensation. Adjusted for inflation, compensation rose 0.3% from the third quarter of 2024.

The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the second time in three weeks to its lowest level since April 2024. The measure of employer willingness to part with workers was 41% below the all-time average and 2% above where it stood just before the COVID-19 pandemic. Data from the Labor Department showed 1.9 million Americans claiming unemployment benefits in the latest week. That was down 5.7% from the week before and up 1% from the same time last year.

In a sign of ongoing consumer caution, credit card debt sank in November at a 1.9% annual pace. The Federal Reserve Board reported that revolving consumer debt outstanding declined for the sixth time in 13 months. The decrease amounted to $2.1 billion. Consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. economic output, as measured by the gross domestic product. Credit card debt partly reflects the confidence of consumers to keep spending.

U.S. employers added 50,000 jobs in December, barely higher than the average for 2025 and well below the monthly addition of 168,000 jobs in 2024. Other data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics report suggests a resilient though cooling job market. Temporary help jobs ­­— considered a bellwether of overall hiring trends — dropped to the lowest number in 14 years. The average hourly wage rose 3.8% from December 2024, exceeding overall inflation for the 31st month in a row. The same report showed the unemployment rate at 4.4%, staying above the pre-pandemic rate since mid-2023.

The pace of U.S. housing starts and building permits continued to slow in October. The Commerce Department reported the annual rate of new construction declined nearly 5% from September and almost 8% from the year before. The annual pace of permits inched down 0.2% for the month and was more than 1% lower than in October 2024. The pace of houses under construction was down 23% from the peak three years earlier but still stayed 8% above the pre-pandemic level.

The University of Michigan reported a second consecutive month of slightly improving consumer sentiment. A preliminary January reading of the survey-based index showed overall sentiment down nearly 25% from the beginning of 2025, though up from mid-year pessimism surrounding unclear tariff policies. The university said consumers remained mostly concerned about higher prices and a weaker job market.

(with Max Hoelzl,Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)

The National Association of Realtors reported increased demand for housing in November, though it remained historically low. The trade group reported its pending home sales index rose 3.3% in from October and was 2.6% ahead of the year before. It was the highest seasonally adjusted reading since February 2023, the group said, but it was still more than 20% below what it considers to be normal activity. The Realtors said lower mortgage rates and wages rising faster than inflation were making housing more affordable while greater inventory was attracting more buyers.

Housing inflation continued to slow in October, staying below overall inflation. The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller national index rose 1.4% from its year-earlier measure. The pace was essentially unchanged from September and marked the lowest price growth since mid-2023, just as the Federal Reserve Board had started boosting interest rates to tamp down inflation. Unadjusted for seasonal fluctuations, monthly home prices declined in 16 of the 20 metropolitan markets followed closest by the index. Analysts for S&P observed “broad stagnation as high mortgage rates weigh on affordability and suppress price momentum.”

The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the third time in four weeks but stayed 40% below its 58-year average, suggesting ongoing tightness in the job market. The Labor Department reported that total claims – including ongoing cases – surpassed 2 million in the latest week, up more than 6% from the previous week and up more than 2% from the year before.

Markets and government offices closed for New Year’s

No significant releases

(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)

In a special year-end Money Talk Podcast, Landaas investment advisors Kyle Tetting, Adam Baley and Dave Sandstrom look ahead at the global economic trends and financial market forces that warrant the attention of long-term investors.

“We’re going to talk about the look ahead for the year of 2026,” Kyle explained at the outset, “expectations for the year ahead after – at least as we’re recording this – what has been an incredible year so far for 2025.”

Included in the discussion:

Learn more
2025 Investment Outlook Seminar,
a Money Talk Video with Kyle Tetting
The Fed: What investors should know, a Money Talk Video with Dave Sandstrom
Rare U-turn raises yield curve concerns, by Adam Baley
2025 Investment Outlook Seminar: Tax updates, a Money Talk Video with Dave Sandstrom
5 reasons to watch the dollar, by Steve Giles
Heads Up: Protecting Yourself from Scams, by Jason Scuglik

Coming in the Jan. 2, 2026 Money Talk Podcast:

Landaas investment advisors Kyle Tetting, Kendall Bauer and John Sandstrom review developments that influenced investment returns over the course of 2025.

(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)

No major announcements

Employers continued to add jobs in November amid signs of a weakening labor market, including the highest unemployment rate in four years. The shutdown-delayed employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed 64,000 more jobs in November after a 105,000-job decline in October, the third drop in five months. Federal jobs led the October fall as total employment stayed flat since April. Temporary help — considered a harbinger of hiring trends — reached its lowest level outside of the pandemic since 2012, amid recovery from the Great Recession. Because of the 43-day government shutdown, household data was not collected in October and had a higher margin of error in November. That data raised the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, the highest since September 2021.

The Commerce Department reported no change in retail sales in October. Eight of 13 major categories had higher sales. Decliners were led by car dealers, home-and-garden centers and bars and restaurants. Sales fell at gas stations because of lower prices. Excluding volatile car and gas sales, retailers generated 0.5 % more revenue than in September. About two-thirds of U.S. economic activity is driven by consumer spending, a majority of which is reflected in retail sales.

No major announcements

The broadest measure of inflation showed a 2.7% annual pace in November. Because of the shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics skipped its October report, the first miss  since 1948, but showed a lower Consumer Price Index increase for the first time since April, when the year-to-year rate was 2.3%. Inflation stayed above the long-range Federal Reserve target of 2% but was down from a four-decade high of 9.1% in June 2022. According to the incomplete report, gas prices were up 11% from the year before and shelter costs rose 3%. Excluding volatile costs for energy and food, the core CPI rose 2.6% from November 2024.

The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the second week in a row, the Labor Department reported. The gauge of employers’ willingness to release workers was 40% below the long-term average and up 5% from the low just before the COVID-19 pandemic. Total jobless claims rose nearly 16% in the latest week to just below 2 million, up almost 2% from the year before.

Existing home sales rose 0.5% in November, a third consecutive increase, the National Association of Realtors reported. The annual sales rate of 4.1 million houses and condos was 1% below the year before; 2024 had the lowest sales in 30 years. An economist for the trade association said housing wealth was at an all-time high, so homeowners are in no hurry to list their properties. Low inventory has helped boost prices, rising to a median price of $409,200 in November, a 1.2% gain from the year before and the 29th consecutive increase.

The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index rose marginally in December, though it was 28.5% lower than the year before. Conditions for buying durable goods fell for the fifth month in a row as 63% of consumers surveyed foresaw a continuing rise in unemployment. Inflation expectations fell but remained higher than they were in January. Economists follow consumer sentiment as a leading indicator of consumer spending.