(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Blake Miller)

The Conference Board said its leading economic indicators shrank 1% in April, following a 0.8% decline in March. The business research group said the index contracted by 2% since October, the same decrease as in the previous six months. More components turned negative in April. But despite “widespread weakness,” the index didn’t set off recession alarms, the Conference Board said. The group forecast 1.6% growth in U.S. gross domestic product in 2025. That’s down from actual growth of 2.8% in 2024. The board said effects from increased tariffs would slow economic growth beginning in the third quarter. As recently as February, the group had forecast a 2.5% growth rate for 2025.

No major reports

No major reports

The four-week moving average for initial unemployment insurance claims rose for the fourth week in a row to its highest level since October. An indication of employer reluctance to let workers go, the moving average still suggested a tight hiring market, down 36% from its all-time average, according to Labor Department data. Just below 1.8 million Americans received jobless benefits in the latest week, down 3.8% from the week before but up 5% from the year before.

The National Association of Realtors said existing home sales fell 0.5% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4 million houses. Sales were 2% lower than the April 2024 pace and have remained at about 75% of normal activity for three years, despite a solid labor market, the trade group said. Inventory rose to the highest level in nearly five years, representing a 4.4-month supply, vs. the 6-month level typically needed for sustained sales rate. The median sales price rose 1.8% from April 2024 to $414,000, the 22nd consecutive price increase.

The annual sales rate of new houses rose in April to its highest level in more than three years. The Commerce Department said the sales pace was 743,000, up nearly 11% from March and 3% above the April 2024 pace. The latest sales also outpaced the level just before the COVID-19 pandemic. The median price for a new house in April declined almost 2% from the year before to $407,200. The median time on market rose to 3 months, the longest in three years but below the 3.4-month mark just before COVID.