Kyle Tetting

Dave Sandstrom

Kendall Bauer

(with Max Hoelzl and Joel Dresang, engineered by Blake Miller)

The Conference Board said its September index of leading economic indicators pointed to continued uncertainty, suggesting moderate economic growth into 2025. The business research group reported a 0.5% decline in the index, following a 0.3% setback in August. The group blamed the September drop-off on weak factory orders, fewer building permits, an inverted yield curve and low consumer expectations. The six-month decline in the index reached 2.6% after dropping 2.2% in the previous six months.

No major releases

The housing sector continued to sputter in September, with existing home sales declining 1% from August and 3.5% behind the year-ago pace. At an annual rate of 3.8 million houses, sales stayed stuck around the same level they’ve been in the past 12 months, although the National Association of Realtors pointed to encouraging signs, including rising inventories, lower mortgage rates and continued job growth. The median sale price rose to $404,500, up 3% from the year before, which the Realtors pointed out was lower than overall wage gains.

The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the third week in a row to reach its highest level since August. Data from the Labor Department showed the new-claim average still 34% below the 57-year average, indicating that the job market remained relatively tight. New claims were about 14% higher than they were just before the 2020 pandemic. In the latest week, 1.6 million Americans claimed jobless benefits, down nearly 1% from the week before but up 3.5% from the same time last year.

The annual rate of new home sales gained 4% in September to its fastest pace since May 2023. The volatile indicator from the Commerce Department was 6% ahead of its pace in September 2023 and beat the level just before the COVID pandemic for the third month in a row. The median sale price was $426,300 nearly even with the year before. Data showed fewer new-home sales were priced above $600,00 compared to September 2023, while more were completed structures, as opposed to still being built.

Demand for long-lasting manufactured products fell 0.8% in September, the second dip in a row and the third decline in four months. The Commerce Department said durable goods orders  through the first nine months of 2024 were down 1.5% from the same time in 2023. Orders for commercial aircraft led the decline. Excluding the volatile transportation category, orders rose 0.4% from August and were up 1.2% from the year before. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investment, gained 0.5% from August and were up 0.3% from September 2023.

Often a precursor to spending, consumer sentiment rose in October for the third month in a row. The University of Michigan reported that its survey-based index advanced to its highest level in six months, up 40% from its all-time low in June 2022. University researchers said expectations for next-year inflation were on par with their levels just before the pandemic, though longer-term outlooks were higher. The university said elections “loom large” over consumers’ attitudes, and spending plans likely will adjust based on whomever gets elected.