US equity markets advanced overnight, shrugging off the potential threat of a US government shutdown and shaping to record an unusually strong September - Dow edged +69-points or +0.15% higher, with Nvidia Corp (up +2.05%) the leading performer in the 30-stock index. Chevron Corp (down -2.53%) was the weakest Dow component.

US equity markets advanced on Friday (26 September), snapping a three session losing streak following benign - Dow rose +300-points or +0.65% Boeing Co (up +3.62%) was the leading performer in the 30-stock index on Friday (26 September) after the Federal Aviation Administration confirmed a report the plane maker will be allowed to issue airworthiness certificates on some of its 737 Max and 787 jets. The eased restrictions, which enable the company to conduct the final safety check on certain aircraft, could help Boeing accelerate production and delivery schedules. In addition, Turkish Airlines finalised a deal to purchase 225 Boeing planes following Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's visit to the U.S. last week.

US equity markets retreated, with the S&P500 and Nasdaq declining for a third consecutive session - Dow fell -174-points or -0.38%, with Amgen Inc (-2.88%), Nike Inc (-2.78%) and Merck & Co Inc (-2.6%) all falling over >2.5%.International Business Machines (IBM) Corp gained +5.20% to be the leading performer in the 30-stock index after financial partner HSBC Holdings Plc said it had a "positive trial" using quantum computers from "Big Blue" for algorithmic bond trading.

US equity markets retreated for a second straight session, with investors booking some profits in the technology sector - Dow fell -172-points or -0.37% Amgen Inc -2.65% Goldman Sachs Group Inc (-1.72%) and International Business Machines (IBM) Corp (-1.73%) both fell ~1.7%.

US equity markets retreated from record highs, snapping a three-session streak that saw the three main indices post record intra-day and closing highs - Dow slipped -89-points or -0.19% to 46,292.78 after logging a fresh record intra-day high (46,447.13) shortly after the opening bell. Amazon.com Inc (down -3.04%) was the worst performer in the 30-stock index. The company squaring off against the Federal Trade Commission in court after the agency filed a lawsuit during the Biden administration alleging the company made it too onerous for customers to cancel their Prime memberships. Nvidia Corp fell -2.82% to US$178.43, handing back much of the previous session’s +3.93% gain that lifted the chipmaker to record closing high (US$183.61) after the company said it’s going to invest US$100B in OpenAI - the maker of ChatGPT - for the buildout of data centres based around the company’s artificial intelligence (AI) chips. Boeing Co ( -0.26%) inked a lucrative contract to make planes for Uzbekistan Airways that President Trump described as “a GREAT deal” on his Truth Social network, noting that he had spoken with Uzbekistan president Shavkat Mirziyoyev last month.

Updated Outlook on the Federal Reserve and Australian Cash Rate

In recent days, several people have asked for my updated view on the Federal Reserve and the Fed funds rate, as well as the outlook for the Australian cash rate. So I thought I’d walk through our model for the Fed funds rate and explain our approach to the RBA’s cash rate.

The benchmark US equity indices booked another round of fresh record intra-day and closing highs to open the week - Dow edged +66-points or +0.14% to 46,381.54. Apple Inc rallied +4.31% to be the leading performer in the 30-stock index following reports of strong demand for the iPhone 17 in its first weekend of sales, aided by consumers seeking to replace aging devices. The stock is closing in on a fresh record closing high (after touching their highest intra-day level since December 2024 overnight at US$256.64) and market capitalisation of US$4 trillion. ‘Magnificent Seven’ mega-capitalisation technology peer Nvidia Corp rallied +3.93% to a record closing high of US$183.61 after the company said it’s going to invest US$100B in OpenAI - the maker of ChatGPT - for the buildout of data centres based around the company’s artificial intelligence (AI) chips. The partnership "enables OpenAI to build and deploy at least 10 gigawatts of AI data centres with NVIDIA systems representing millions of GPUs [graphics processing unit] for OpenAI's next-generation AI infrastructure." Nvidia added it "intends to invest up to US$100B in OpenAI progressively as each gigawatt is deployed." However, Amazon.com Inc fell -1.66% as investors assessed the potential fallout from President Trump's shock decision late on Friday (19 September) to raise the H-1B visa application fee to US$100,000. Amazon employs ~14K staff on such visas.

The three benchmark US equity indices advanced on Friday (19 September) to book fresh record intra-day and closing highs for a second consecutive session as the US and China advanced trade talks and the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks continued to climb - Dow rose +173-points or +0.37% to 46,315.27 Apple Inc +3.20% as the company’s new iPhone 17 models went on sale globally.

US equity indices logged fresh record closing highs, driven by fresh gains for the technology sector - Dow rose +124-points or +0.27% to 46,142.42, with Caterpillar Inc (up +3.62%) the leading performer in the 30-stock index and up over >7% in the past three trading sessions.

The US equity markets advanced - Dow gained +260-points or +0.57% to 46,018.32, touching a record intra-day high of 46,261.95. Amazon.com Inc (up +2.74%) and Caterpillar Inc (+2.27%) both gained over >2% to be the leading performers in the 30-stock index.