My thoughts on the recently posted story.

Caveats

• I think it's great that the AI Futures Project wrote up a detailed scenario.
• I enjoy it.
• Every part of the story i didn't comment on here is either fine or excellent.
• This is one of the most realistic scenarios i've read.
• All detailed predictions contain errors.
• The authors of this scenario don't claim it's the most likely future.
• If the speed of 2018-2025 was the typical rate of progress in software, then AI 2027 would be realistic.

Core Disagreements

• Early 2026: OpenBrain is making algorithmic progress 50% faster.
  • As with many parts of this scenario, i think this is plausible but too fast. 150% productivity is a lot in business terms, & the scenario doesn't provide much detail for why this is 150% as opposed to 110%. In my software development experience, organizations are bottlenecked by their [...]

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Outline:

(00:14) Caveats

(00:52) Core Disagreements

(05:33) Minor Details

(12:04) Overall

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First published:

Source:

Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.