NAB Morning Call

Monday 20th June 2026

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With the US closed for business on Friday what market action there was largely driven by geopolitics. Peace talks in Switzerland start on shaky ground with question marks over whether Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump has turned up the rhetoric, but it could just be another chapter from Art of the Deal. NAB’s Skye Masters says it’s likely that the risk sentiment from last week could take a backward step today. Also today, its possible Keir Starmer will announce his plans to step aside as the UK performs its own self-induced regime change. A busy week ahead for Australian data include May’s CPI, employment numbers, job vacancies and household spending. Plus, US PCE deflator on Thursday, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation (for now).

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Friday 19th June 2026

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Is the Australian property market running out of puff, or are we just seeing the first ripples of a dramatic regulatory shake-up? Phil sits down with Cotality’s head of Australian research, Gerard Burg, to dig into whether the federal government’s newly minted tax overhauls for established dwellings are actively driving investors away. They break down a highly unusual shift in local listings where properties are sitting on the market far longer, signaling a slow rebalancing of supply and demand that actually predates the budget. From the roaring lifestyle market in Hobart to stark upper-quartile property slides in Sydney, this episode uncovers why first-home buyers are getting squeezed the hardest by compounding RBA interest rate hikes. Plus, they explore a looming structural nightmare: why the massive 36% post-pandemic spike in construction costs and the approaching 2032 Brisbane Olympics are set to derail the government’s ambitious target of building 1.2 million homes. Tune in to find out if the golden era of hands-off property speculation is officially behind us, and whether, as a positive, tax changes will finally push Aussie wealth into more productive areas of the economy.

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Friday 19th June 2026

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Vessels have begun navigating the Strait of Hormuz following the formal signing of the U.S.-Iran MoU, with Brent crude at three-month lows near $80 a barrel. Phil asks NAB’s Ray Attrill whether this is as low as we can expect it to go for now, at least until a more definitive peace emerges. Also, Ray explains why the Aussie dollar is holding its own against a surging U.S. dollar and why the Bank of England hold – and future holds – might have something to do with the "Maradona theory" of monetary policy. They had to get soccer in there somehow. All covered off before the need for a refreshment break.

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Thursday 18th June 2026

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A concise and hawkish Federal Reserve decision has shifted global desks. Phil unpacks Kevin Warsh’s first Fed meeting with NAB’s Gavin Friend. It delivered an unyielding 12-0 vote to hold rates steady alongside a razor-thin official statement that raised inflation forecasts and explicitly prioritised price stability. This refusal to offer traditional forward guidance pushed bond yields higher and sparked choppy swings across the Nasdaq, all while a surprise 0.9% surge in U.S. retail sales proved the American consumer is out shopping. Meanwhile the UK awaits employment data and a high-stakes by-election. Then there’s that MoU with the signing-ceremony a day away.

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Wednesday 17th June 2026

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A unanimous, universally expected pause by the RBA yesterday, with Michelle Bullock refusing to rule out future interest rate hikes if inflation remains sticky. Taylor Nugent says NAB's view remains firm that the data flow won't give them the final push needed to squeeze out another increase. Inflationary pressures globally could be about to ease as crude oil prices collapse below $80 a barrel as optimism solidifies around the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The Bank of Japan hoisted its benchmark rate to 1% in an attempt to salvage a battered yen, while over in Washington, the Federal Reserve prepares for Kevin Warsh's debut meeting as chair, where he is widely expected to forego his anticipated dovish approach, faced with the inflationary pressures.  

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Tuesday 16th June 2026

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There’s been a sharp market response to the apparent agreed memorandum of understanding, electronically signed by Iran and the US, with a formal signing ceremony in Switzerland on Friday. NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to look at the market response, with yields falling, equities rising, the Aussie dollar gaining ground and oil prices plummeting. It’s the closest we’ve been to a deal yet, but it doesn’t resolve any of the underlying issues, of course, and ships having started passing through the Strait in any great number just yet. It’s also the start of a flood of central bank meetings, starting with the RBA (likely on hold) and the BoJ (expected to raise rate). Plus a chunk of activity data for China released today.

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Monday 15th June 2026

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NAB’s Sally Auld joins Phil to discuss a week where markets are responding to the shifting realities of a proposed U.S.-Iran peace deal. Deep optimism over a potential memorandum of understanding opening the Strait of Hormuz toll-free pushed Brent crude down to $87.30 a barrel and led to sharp gains across European equities. Looking ahead to a massive week of central bank decisions—including the Fed, Bank of England, and a highly anticipated Bank of Japan hike—the focus turns to the RBA's upcoming statement. Sally expects the board to maintain its steady path while striking a balanced tone; the RBA will likely acknowledge cooling domestic activity via soft housing metrics and dropping capacity utilization rates, yet remain anxious over sticky inflation pipelines, leaving the truly consequential policy and forecast revisions till their August meeting.

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Friday 12th June 2026

Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.

Japan finds itself performing a high-stakes economic balancing act as the nation navigates its most aggressive structural pivot in decades. In this weekend edition of the NAB Morning Call, Phil Dobbie welcomes Tokyo-based independent macro strategist Tetsuo "Harry" Ishihara to unpack how Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's administration is fiercely driving growth via an interventionist, multi-year fiscal strategy—employing heavy gas subsidies and targeted funding across 17 growth sectors to absorb the massive shock of the Middle East energy crisis. Yet, this state-sponsored growth push directly collides with the Bank of Japan's urgent agenda. With the yen weakening back past the precarious 160-per-dollar mark, the central bank is looking clean through artificial headline numbers to an "ex-institutional" inflation metric that is creeping toward 3%. Can the government maintain its growth-at-all-costs mandate while the BOJ prepares to bite the bullet with a historic interest rate hike to 1% next week to defend the currency and tame import costs? Tune in to discover how Tokyo plans to pull off this delicate macroeconomic manoeuvre without bringing the entire apparatus crashing down.

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Friday 12th June 2026

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A major coordinated market reversal took place overnight as Donald Trump posted a dramatic Truth Social message stating that a comprehensive US-Iran peace deal is "just about done," prompting an immediate unwind of trades built on escalating tensions. NAB's Ray Attrill joins Phil to dissect this massive shift, which saw Brent crude plunge back below $90 a barrel, US Treasury yields drop 9 basis points, and the Nasdaq snap back into a roaring 3.5% rally. Yet Iran's semiofficial Fars news agency swiftly downplayed the announcement, stating no text has been formally approved. Beyond the Gulf,: the European Central Bank delivering its first interest rate hike since 2023 to combat broad-based inflation pressures, and today sees the historic debut of the largest initial public offering (IPO) in global history, dwarfing Saudi Aramco with a mind-boggling valuation. 

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Thursday 11th June 2026

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Oil prices are higher again as the US and Iran tit for tat measures pick up a pace, with more rhetoric from the US President. The question global banks are asking, is how are rising oil prices impacting core inflation? The Fed seems is expected to wait, even with headline inflation at 4.2%. The ECB, though, is concerned about the second-round effects of oil price rises and is likely to raise rates tonight. China, meanwhile, reported lower consumer inflation but rising producer prices. NAB’s Skye Masters joins Phil to talk through the numbers.

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