NAB Morning Call

Wednesday 10th June 2026

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer 

Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

There hasn't been a strong market reaction to the downing of a US helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz yesterday, even though Donald Trump has talked retaliation. Instead, markets seem to have focused more on the fact that some oil tankers have successfully made their way through and that Kuwait has been actively selling oil to refineries. Meanwhile NAB has revised its expectations for the RBA and doesn't see any rate hikes this year with the next move likely to be down. NAB’s Ken Crompton takes us through the reasoning, including the latest data from the NAB business survey yesterday and the consumer sentiment read. Today the focus is going to be on US and China inflation numbers.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 5th June 2026

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer 

Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

A blowout U.S. non-farm payrolls report has injected definitive hawk-ish certainty into central bank paths, while a hyper-volatile tit-for-tat missile exchange between Israel and Iran leaves the outlook for the Gulf structurally unsettled. Phil and NAB’s Rodrigo Catril work through the geopolitical and data crosscurrents, noting that while global oil prices spiked past $98 a barrel during the weekend combat before settling back to $94, prediction markets continue to aggressively push back the timeline for a lasting regional truce. This unresolved energy shock contrasts sharply with a block of robust North American labour metrics—led by a 172,000 U.S. hiring beat in May and an 88,000 full-time employment surge in Canada—which triggered a massive bear flattening across core treasury yield curves. Wall Street managed a partial recovery from its brutal tech sell-off, yet broader equity configurations show distinct vulnerability as a highly anticipated, multi-billion-dollar SpaceX flotation triggers significant liquidity churn. At home the focus pivots to a critical testing day for local momentum with the simultaneous drop of the NAB Business Survey and the Westpac Consumer Confidence index, which will offer fresh visibility on whether worsening price pressures, margin squeezes, and post-budget sentiment are altering the structural direction of the Australian economy.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 5th June 2026

Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.

Phil talks to Tim Jordan, Commissioner at the Australian Energy Market Commission (AEMC),on how the energy grid is adapting to volatile fossil fuel prices and the massive surge in electricity demand driven by artificial intelligence. While retail energy costs prepare to ease under the upcoming July Default Market Offer (DMO) reductions, the conversation centres on the complex shift toward a renewable-dominated system. Tim breaks down the structural divide between the rule-making AEMC and the pricing regulators, highlighting the critical role that large-scale battery farms, domestic virtual power plants, and time-of-day pricing models must play to move supply out of midday solar peaks. The discussion covers major structural bottlenecks, from the long financial payback periods of household storage to grid connection delays and the unique challenge of providing vehicle-to-grid charging options in a country that is embracing more apartment living.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 5th June 2026

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer 

Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

Tonight's highly anticipated U.S. non-farm payrolls data follows a week of highly conflicting signals from the American labour market. So, what will today’s data reveal about underlying economic momentum? Also, can the market’s rampant "buy the dip" equity mentality survive a potential rotation out of over-stretched tech stocks? Phil is joined by NAB's Ken Crompton to discuss this and the shifting risk sentiment which saw oil prices retreat on speculative Israel-Lebanon peace headlines. They also discuss RBA Governor Michelle Bullock’s Senate testimony, questioning whether a hawkish pause and stickier supply-shock inflation will ultimately force a definitive interest rate hike this August.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 4th June 2026

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer 

Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

An exchange of fire in the Gulf aw a resurgence of risk-off sentiment in global markets, driving Brent crude back toward $98 a barrel and weakening the Australian dollar. The unfolding crisis highlights Warsh’s Dilemma ahead of his first Fed meeting: while much of the world downshifts, the U.S. economy remains strikingly insulated. As NAB’s Gavin Friend explains, the May U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing survey surged nine points which, alongside strong ADP employment figures and an elevated prices-paid component signals inflation prospects that the Fed can’t ignore. Closer to how GDP growth slowed yesterday, in part because of the trade deficit, but also sluggish household consumption. How that plays out in terms of future rate decisions will no doubt be discussed in Michelle Bullock’s appearance before a senate hearing today.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 3rd June 2026

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer 

Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

More signs of global cooling. NAB’s Ray Attrill looks ahead to today’s Q1 GDP for Australia, with expectations dialled down following a surprising slide into a trade deficit yesterday. It shows how domestic growth was already slowing and tracking below RBA forecasts well before recent energy shocks emerged, although Ray says this, and the 4.75% increase in minimum wage, won’t impact the RBA’s trajectory. But the expectation of a rate rise from the ECB rose along with inflation yesterday. Services inflation is a particular sticking point. 

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuessday 2nd June 2026

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer 

Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

Phil Dobbie and NAB’s Sally Auld delve into a turbulent market session where geopolitical theatre and conflicting macroeconomic signals pulled global asset classes in opposite directions. Crude oil spiked toward $98 a barrel early in the session before cooling down to just over $95 after a flurry of Truth Social posts from Donald Trump claimed he had negotiated a halt to the fighting in Lebanon, smoothing the path for U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks. While Wall Street pushed to fresh record highs solely on the backs of surging IT and energy stocks—buoyed by a strong U.S. manufacturing ISM accelerating to 54—the domestic focus shifted heavily to a much softer-than-expected Australian housing print. Sally highlights that this property slowdown represents a powerful alignment of compounding RBA rate hikes alongside significant changes to investor tax arrangements. While it remains early days, she notes that the combination of these forces could create a larger housing downturn cycle than initially anticipated.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 1st June 2026

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer 

Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

Phil Dobbie and NAB’s Taylor Nugent check the pulse of a global market that remains suspended in a cautious holding pattern. Friday’s wave of optimism—which pushed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to fresh all-time highs and drove Brent crude down near the $90-a-barrel mark—has run into a wall of silence following a highly anticipated White House meeting on a 60-day Gulf ceasefire. With the administration maintaining that the Strait of Hormuz must open unconditionally and toll-free, and hints that the U.S. will remain patient for a "good deal," traders are left wondering if a lack of concrete updates will cause oil prices to drift higher once again. This geopolitical stalemate completely overshadowed a significant batch of central bank commentary and data: Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey suggested that weak economic growth may prevent energy-driven inflation from feeding into wages, while early European CPI indicators revealed surprising downward price pressures, with headline prices in Germany dropping 0.2% month-on-month. Meanwhile, despite a temporary water fee waiver softening Tokyo's core CPI, Taylor notes that Japan's strong industrial production and tight labour market mean there is still nothing to stand in the way of the Bank of Japan delivering another interest rate hike at its June meeting.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 30th May 2026

Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.

While the market's attention has been transfixed by oil and gas, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a secondary, far more dangerous shock for Australian food security: a massive fertilizer crisis. Phil sits down with Paddy Rombola, Chairman of Advantage Agriculture, to unpack why Australia's 80% reliance on imported nitrogen-based fertilizers has left our agricultural sector critically exposed to a global supply chain where the Middle East controls nearly a third of all urea exports. With domestic urea prices skyrocketing from A$700 to an eye-watering A$1,900 per tonne in May, local farmers are being forced to cut back crop nutrition rates just as meteorologists warn of an incoming "super El Niño" drought across New South Wales and Queensland. Paddy outlines the immediate risk to consumer supermarket shelves, warning that while precision agronomy can help buy time, a looming fruit and vegetable supply crunch means everyday Australians should brace for significant food price inflation over the next six to nine months.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 29th May 2026

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer 

Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil to discuss the latest reports that U.S. and Iranian negotiators have finalized a 60-day memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire and begin talks on Iran's nuclear program. This crucial step, which would see the Strait of Hormuz gradually reopen toll-free, now reportedly just needs a nod from the US President activate, but its obviously more complicated than that. This glimmer of diplomatic progress pushed Brent crude down below $94 a barrel, completely overshadowing a mixed bag of U.S. economic data. While the annual core PCE deflator held sticky at 3.3%, annualized Q1 GDP was revised down to 1.6% and corporate profits took a surprise 0.4% squeeze. Despite cooling growth and comments from the Fed's John Williams that policy could go either way, Wall Street brushed off the headwinds, sending the S&P 500 to a fresh all-time high.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.