NAB Morning Call

By Phil DobbieBusiness News Business News

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NAB Morning Call episodes

September 04, 2022 Putin ends Goldilocks moment
Monday 5th September 2022

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There was a short-lived burst of positivity on Friday, when USD payrolls numbers delivered a Goldilocks result, with jobs rising, but wage rises easing and more people piling into the jobs markets. The good news was offset by news that Russia will not be reopening the Nordstream gas pipeline, adding to the pressure on Europe to navigate its way through winter. NAB’s Tapas Strickland talks through the market impact on today’s podcast, as well as the problems in China, where 65 million people are currently in lockdown in 33 cities. The ECB, RBA and Bank of Canada all meet this week, and the UK gets a new Prime Minister later today.
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17 min
September 01, 2022 Will strong jobs numbers add to the Fed’s battle tonight?
Friday 2nd September 2022

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We know the world is in an awkward place, but we keep getting positive data reads, like a strong manufacturing ISM from the US, retail sales picking up in Germany, UK house prices still strong – all the things central banks don’t really want to hear right now. So what happens if non-farms payrolls in the US tonight shows a labour market that isn’t showing any signs of weakening? NAB’s Ken Crompton reckons a soft read will cause more of a fall in bond yields than the response to a stronger set of numbers. It’ll be an asymmetric response, he says.
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17 min
August 31, 2022 Euro inflation high, pound heading back to the pleasure dome
Thursday 1st September 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9Euro area inflation is the highest since the creation of the Euro and NAB’s David de Garis says markets are no pricing in a greater than 50 percent change that the ECB will lift rates by 75 basis points next week. That’s helped support the Euro today, whilst the pound falls further, to levels we saw in early 1985, when mullets were fashionable. Still are for some, of course. Australia’s construction sector has taken a battering, driven by weather and higher supply costs, but private sector credit growth remains strong. China’s PMIs show an economy that is taking a long time to recover – in part because of COVID, but hot weather has also had an impact. Friday’s jobs numbers will focus attention now, but the new ADP report has shown jobs growth for larger businesses and a fall in small business employment.
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15 min
August 30, 2022 More good news, that’s actually bad news
Wednesday 31st August 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9The US jobs market grew last month, whilst consumer sentiment improved. It’s not what the Fed wants to hear. Do these positive numbers mean that the US can survive a soft-landing? No, says JBWere’s Sally Auld, it just piles the pressure on the Fed to be more aggressive on rate rises. The consumer sentiment probably reflects little more than a fall in petrol prices. We know Europe is set for a hard landing, even though gas prices have fallen and Germany’s reserves are up to 80 percent. But German inflation was higher than expected overnight, which suggests the European numbers will also be higher tomorrow, putting pressure on the ECB to move faster.
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18 min
August 29, 2022 Aussie yields push higher after July’s shopping bonanza
Tuesday 30th August 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9Bond yields in Australia rose sharply yesterday. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it was part of the global response to Jerome Powell’s short hawkish speech in Jackson Hole on Friday, but it was also because of the much higher than expected July retail numbers for Australia, which might suggest the RBA will have to push harder to knock inflation down to size. There’s also discussion about how quickly the market in the US is expecting to see rates rise, and how quickly they expect inflation to fall. Also, the latest on the European energy crisis, why oil has pushed higher today and a look ahead to European inflation umbers and US jobs data.
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17 min
August 28, 2022 Fickle equity investors respond to unsurprising Powell comments
Monday 29th August 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9We knew Jerome Powell would be giving a hawkish speech at Jackson Hole, so why were equity investors so surprised when he did just that? Clearly, they didn’t get the memo, says NAB’s Ray Attrill, referring to a huge sell off in US shares on Friday, mirrored by a big fall in the Aussie dollar. So how will the Aussie shape up now, if we see Europe and the US heading into recession, That’s more likely in Europe, where gas prices continue to rise and deliveries from Russia stop totally middle of the week, with a question mark on when – and if – they will start again. Meanwhile, Britain’s energy prices continue to rise to unprecedented levels. Where does it all end. And happy birthday to us; the Morning Call is six years old today.
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17 min
August 25, 2022 Peering into Jackson hole
Friday 26th August 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9There’s unlikely to be any surprises when Jerome Powell steps up to the podium at the Jackson Hole Symposium tonight (Australian time). It’s well signalled that he will be uber-hawkish, and with the Fed’s credibility on the line, best not to go too-soft when inflation is spiking. That said, NAB’s Taylor Nugent says there has been some pull back in bond yields ahead of the main act, whilst equities have pushed higher overnight. Minutes from the ECB have largely been overtaken by events. It was noted that a “recession would not necessarily diminish upside inflation risks, especially if it was related to a gas cut-off”, but the question remains, what can monetary policy do about it? And US GDP has been revised up, still in negative territory but gross domestic income perhaps provides a more realistic – and positive – picture of the health of the US economy.
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16 min
August 24, 2022 Dire Straits for UK and Europe
Thursday 25th August 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9Ukraine has just celebrated Independence Day and it’s becoming clearer how much the UK and Europe is paying the price. NAB’s Gavin Friend paints a pessimistic picture about the outlook for that part of the world, as gas prices push ever higher. He says the Fed can raise rates to moderate demand in the US, but in Europe rate hikes will do nothing to mitigate rapidly rising energy prices. Joe Stiglitz has been saying overnight that interest rate hikes will do other than, he reckons, make inflation worse. Yet UK two-year yields shot higher overnight on expectations that the Bank of England will push ahead with a faster path of rate increases.
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17 min
August 23, 2022 Business activity falls, but not enough to slow the Fed
Wednesday 24th August 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9It’s that time of the month when PMI reads give us a global snapshot of how everyone is doling relative to each other. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the US provided the biggest surprise with a sharp fall in the services number, moving further into contraction territory, with a read of 44.1 – a 27 month low. That’s somewhat worse than services numbers in Europe, and well below the UK, which continues to surprise, with a Services PMI read of 52.5 (actually growing). The bad news from the US was compounded by a fall in the Richmond Fed manufacturing index (also moving into contraction) and a further slowdown in new home prices. But Europe’s future continues to be dominated with higher fuel costs, which show no signs of settling down.
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16 min
August 22, 2022 Markets respond as European gas prices push ever higher
Tuesday 23rd August 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9The US dollar has risen close to a multi-decade, against a falling Euro and pound, as the energy outlook in that part of the world worsens and gas prices continue to skyrocket. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says this has added to the resolve of central banks to tackle inflation with faster rises in interest rates. There is a plethora of PMI reports today. The question is, if they show any weakening in the performance of economies, will that be enough to moderate the hawkishness that’s prevalent amongst most central banks right now?
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15 min

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Start your day with the NAB Morning Call for the latest overnight key economic and market information straight from our team of expert market economists and strategists. This includes perspective on…