NAB Morning Call

Monday 19th September 2022

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It’s a confusing week ahead of central bank meetings and public holidays. The Queen’s funeral will attract most attention today, but not on the markets that could see a quiet start to a busy week. NAB’s Ray Attrill says it’ll add to the volatility this week, driven by uncertainty and liquidity. Whilst most expect a 75 basis point rise from the Fed this week, there’s still a chance they will lift by 100. The UK faces a decision by the Bank of England and a mini budget from Kwasi Kwarteng, the new Chancellor, that could add to big increases in bond issuance. Plus, a meeting of the UN General Assembly which could (perhaps) see Putin lose more allies. 

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Friday 16th September 2022

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Front end bond yields pushed higher in the US, as shares fell sharply and oil prices fell. The inversion in the yield curve continues to point to a recession with investors clearly expecting a higher terminal rate by the Fed. NAB’s Gavin Friend says markets are still reeling from the higher than expected inflation read this week, and much now rests on what Jerome Powell says next week. The picture is muddy, with today’s data releases fairly mixed. US retail sales were up, but the Philly Fed manufacturing index fell, with a big decrease in new orders. We try and make sense of it all in today’s podcast, along with analysis of yesterday’s Australian employment numbers and words on the meeting between Presidents Putin and Xi in Uzbekistan yesterday.

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Thursday 15th September 2022

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Yesterday, markets responded sharply to the higher-than-expected inflation read from the US. You might have expected a bit of a correction today as markets take stock of the news, but that didn’t really happen. As NAB’s David de Garis points out, there is still an expectation of sharp moves by the Fed, with the possibility of a 100bp rise still on the table. UK inflation fell back into single figures, but only because petrol prices have fallen. Today Australian employment numbers and US retail sales are the figures to look out for.

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Wednesday 14th September 2022

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Markets were caught off guard by the higher-than-expected inflation rad fom the US. The fall in energy prices has been offset by a broad-based rise across all other sectors. US equities fell heavily, bond yields rose and the US dollar gained significant ground. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the results have raised the spectre of a possible 100bp rise by the Fed and a higher terminal rate. The UK gets their inflation numbers later, after falling unemployment numbers and rising wages yesterday. So, what about Australia, where the NAB Business Survey showed improvements in business conditions and sentiment – but what did it tell us about inflation expectations?

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Tuesday 13th September 2022

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Risk sentiment is improving, with shares up in the US and Europe and the US dollar losing ground to the Euro. Why? It’s a question Phil Dobbie puts to NAB’s Tapas Strickland in today’s Morning Call. The EU has drafted an energy plan that includes a windfall tax on fossil fuel providers, but the data over the last 24 hours shouldn’t imbue confidence. UK GDP growth was below expectations, and the IFO has substantially downgraded their forecasts for Germany. The big event today is the CPI figure for the US tonight, although its unlikely to change the expectations for a 75bp hike from the Fed at their next meeting.

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Monday 12th September 2022

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Curiously, US shares pushed higher towards the end of last week, even though there is no sign of the central bank slowing down its path of rate rises. Quite the reverse in fact. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says short-selling has been a driving force behind this and we can expect volatility in equity markets for some time. Meanwhile, front end bond yields are rising as Fed speakers find new ways to signal continued tightening, with no let-up until the job is done. We might hear the same from the Bank of England, except they’ve pushed back their next meeting to next week in respect to the death of Queen Elizabeth II, but it could work out as much better timing for them as well. The EU are struggling to find an answer to energy prices, but have agreed that something needs to be done, hopefully before the cold weather sets in. 

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Friday 9th September 2022

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Even though a big hike from the Fed is widely anticipated, bond yields continue to move up as Jerome Powell and other speakers talk it up. The moves were even bigger in Europe where an expected 75 basis point hike saw a sharp rise up in 2 year Bund yields. NAB’s David de Garis says markets expect that, at some point soon, central banks will start pulling back and they are looking for that inflection point. Today there was no sign of that happening anytime soon on either side of the Atlantic. But the RBA’s Jerome Powell was sounding far more dovish. The new UK PM outlined her plans to subsidise energy, which will involve a massive amount of government spending. Sadly, the news was overshadowed by the passing of Her Royal Highness. Irrespective of your views on the monarchy, most people acknowledge Elizabeth II was a warmly regarded, hard working lady who will be sadly missed.

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Thursday 8th September 2022

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There were big market moves yesterday and overnight, with sharp drops in oil prices, bond yields falling, a turnaround in US equities and the US dollar gaining some ground, with the Yen falling to its lowest level in 24 years. NAB’s Skye Masters says there wasn’t much data to influence the markets, but there was a lot of Fed commentary that is suggesting that perhaps the pace of interest rate moves might begin to slow down. Falling oil prices and government subsidies on gas prices will also be seen as helping to tame inflation.

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Wednesday 7th September 2022

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There was a strong response to the US Services ISM overnight, which came in stronger than expected. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says they have raised expectations for a 75bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting, pushing bond yields higher overnight. In the UK Liz Truss is officially Prime Minister and is expected to freeze energy bills with what could amount to a £1,500 subsidy per household. So that could help reduce inflation, but higher government spending could have the opposite effect, particularly in combination with planned tax cuts. There’s also discussion about the RBA decision, Australia’s widening current account surplus, China’s trade data and the Bank of Canada meeting tonight. A busy one.

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Tuesday 6th September 2022

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It’s RBA day today. NAB’s Ivan Colhoun talks through what to expect, whilst Ray Attrill looks at the worsening situation in the UK and Europe. Gas prices have risen after the closure of the Nordstream pipeline, and oil prices are also on the rise after OPEC+ agreed to production cuts from next month. We’ve also seen a revision in PMIs in Europe, with the UK services PMI moving into contractionary territory. Signs of resilience are quickly disappearing. It’s a different story for the US, though, where ISM numbers are expecting to stay above 50, adding to the pressure the US dollar will place on other major currencies.

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