NAB Morning Call

Wednesday 22nd January 2020

Whilst President Trump was self-aggrandising at Davos, US equities stalled and the US dollar lost a little ground to the Yen. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril suggests that all markets are taking a breather at the start of the impeachment proceedings, along with concerns around the corona virus. The UK provided one bright spot, with employment numbers far better than expected and the ZEW survey showing optimism in Germany at a four a half year high. Consumer confidence numbers in Australia will be of particular interest today, along with earnings results from the US.

Tuesday 21st January 2020

The US was on holiday Monday so it’s been a quiet session all round. As Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s Tapas Strickland the most volatility was in oil prices, with supply concerns from Libra and Iraq. The IMF released revised economic forecasts, cutting their expectation for growth in 2020, but it’s still an improvement on 2019, thank goodness. Given that little is expected to change with the Bank of Japan, the main focus tonight will be what President Trump has to say at the opening of the World Economic Forum in Davos. We know he always likes to surprise when he’s on foreign soil.

Monday 20th January 2020

The rally in US equities continued at the end of the week, with the optimism spreading to Europe. The ASX200 also hit a new record on Friday. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Ray Attrill about the economic data that is supporting the optimistic tone. The UK, though, is not joining the party. Whilst shares rose, that was largely because the pound fell, after retail sales fell well below expectations. Perhaps it was too early for a Boris bounce? Today, the markets will be quiet with a US holiday, so we look ahead to the key data points this week.

Friday 17th January 2020

US equities rose higher still today, on the back of the latest US retail numbers. NAB’s Gavin Friend says trading is still cautious – it’s not a ‘fear of missing out’ scenario. The data is supporting the cautious optimism, with a particularly strong result in the Philadelphia Fed survey knocking well above market expectation. In Australia yesterday the value of home loans surprised on the upside, whilst today the manufacturing PMIs for New Zealand will be of interest and UK retail sales will be watched by the Bank of England, who have been making increasing sounds of moving to a rate-cut in the short term. There’s also discussion about surprise rate cuts in South Africa and Turkey.

Thursday 16th January 2020

Even though we don’t know the full details of the deal signed between the US and China today, equities have used it to post further gains and new record highs. NAB’s Alex Stanley questions whether the impact will be too significant, with all the difficult issues likely to be pushed back to a phase two deal. They also discuss UK’s weaker than anticipated inflation numbers, which hit UK gilt yields and today’s Australia housing credit numbers and US retail sales.

Wednesday 15th January 2019

Sometime today or tonight the US and China will sign the phase one trade deal. Shortly after we’ll see the text, outlining exactly what has been agreed. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland what we already know and how sensitive will the markets be to the detail of the deal. They also discuss yesterday’s Chinese trade numbers, the rise and rise of the US stock market, tonight’s UK CPI and the latest addition to the US list of currency manipulators.

Tuesday 14th January 2020

As a further sign of a more positive path for the US and China, there are reports this morning that the US Treasury Department will no-longer consider China a currency manipulator. In today’s Morning Call Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s David de Garis about the markets’ shift to risk-on ahead of this week’s signing. Meanwhile, the UK has delivered a series of disappointing economic numbers, but the bigger influence on Sterling has been increased talk of an imminent rate cut by the Bank of England. Plus, rating agencies give Australia some leeway on returning to surplus, to help fund the rebuilding work in bushfire hit areas.

Monday 13th January 2020

In our first podcast back Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Ray Attrill about the week’s economic news and the broader prospects for 2020. How will Australia fare with the impact of bushfires on an economy that was already showing signs of weakness? Will the US-China phase one trade deal thus week and more certainty on Brexit help the global economy? And have we seen the worst of the volatility over Iran? Will the Year of the Rat be better for us all than the Year of the Spat? Welcome back to 2020 with NAB’s daily markets update.

Monday 23rd December 2019

This time last year US stocks had fallen to two-year lows. Since then they’ve climbed to a series of new highs. But, whilst equity traders have been happy, there’s been a degree of cautiousness in currencies and bond markets, driven by Brexit and the US China trade war. The fall in the Australian housing market has added to the problems domestically. So, with renewed hopes for a Brexit deal and a truce at least on the US China dispute, could 2020 be a year of strong growth. Or will it be the year the RBA resorts to quantitative easing to boost the economy. Join Phil Dobbie as he look forward to 2020, with NAB’s David de Garis, Tapas Strickland, Rodrigo Catril, Gavin Friend and Ray Attrill.

*** The Morning Call will return, each weekday, from Monday January 13th 2020. ***

Friday 20th December 2019

The Aussie dollar is one of the best performing currencies this morning. As NAB’s Dave de Garis explains, it’s held its position after the better-than-expected Australian Labour numbers yesterday. The NZ dollar is also doing well on the back of a rise in GDP growth, whilst the pound continues to fall on post-election Brexit jitters. As expected, the Riksbank lifted interest rates out of negative territory – a bold move at a time when all other banks are heading in the opposite direction. Dave also talks to Phil Dobbie about the importance of tonight’s PCE Core Deflator numbers from the US. And join us Monday morning for our end-of-year Markets Wrap.