NAB Morning Call

Thursday 5th December 2019

Oil has been the big mover overnight ahead of the OPEC summit. We’ve also seen a return to optimism from the US equity markets on words from President Trump that those trade talks with China are going well. As Phil Dobbie says to NAB’s David de Garis, wasn’t it yesterday that he was saying they could wait till after next year’s US election? The President, meanwhile, has left NATO early, without having scuppered Boris Johnson’s chances of winning next week’s election, which has helped the pound to a 7-month high today. There’s also discussion about the consequences of Australia’s weaker than anticipated GDP numbers yesterday and services data from the US, China and the Eurozone.

Wednesday 4th December 2019

President Trump has upset markets further today suggesting that the trade deal with China might be left till after the US election, a year away. He also took aim at France over duties on digital services companies, threatening tariffs ad Macron promising retaliation. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks to Phil Dobbie about the deteriorating situation and the market response. They also look at what next for the RBA and what to expect from today’s Australian GDP number. And there’s discussion on tonight’s services data for the US, China and Europe.

Tuesday 3rd December 2019

The markets were spooked overnight by threats of further tariffs from the US President if a trade resolution isn’t reached. He also showed he meant business by instantly applying new tariffs on Argentina and Brazil over their currency devaluation. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland whether the President’s tirade is driven by manufacturing data showing growth in China and contraction in the US. Also, today, not much expected from the RBA, even though Aussie data yesterday showed more cause for concern. Plus, a partial rebound in oil prices as the question remains on the stance OPEC will take on production cuts this week. And the US President is in the UK for NATO.

Monday 2nd December 2019

It’s an important week for Australian markets, with a slew of data today, GDP released on Wednesday and the RBA meeting between them. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril talks through what to expect. Meanwhile, US China trade uncertainty continues, Boris Johnson’s lead I the UK pols is narrowing and Angela Merkel’s government could be in tatters as the Social Democrats talk of abandoning the coalition. Phil Dobbie also asks Rodrigo about the sharp fall in oil prices at the end of last week ahead of OPEC, and the latest manufacturing data that shows growth has returned to China. As always, of course, the devil is in the detail.

Friday 29th November 2019

President Trump has signed the Hong Kong human rights act. NAB’s David de Garis says on today’s Morning Call podcast that it was likely he would, but it's unlikely it will prevent a trade deal being reached, despite the hefty rhetoric coming from China. The poll to end all polls in the UK has shown a clear victory for Boris Johnson’s government – the pound reacted, but not for too long. And, as is discussed in today’s podcast, next week could see one visiting international figure weighing in on the debate. They also discuss yesterday’s capex numbers for Australia and their impact on the forthcoming Q3 GDP number, plus private sector credit numbers today.

Thursday 28th November 2019

For once US markets have been driven not by trade talks, but by hard numbers. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks to Phil Dobbie about the bounce back in durable goods and the upward revision in GDP, along with weaker than expected inflation numbers. He also explains why a poll in the UK in the next few hours could have some influence on Sterling. And they look ahead to today’s capex numbers for Australia and business confidence data for NZ.

Wednesday 27th November 2019

RBA Governor Philip Lowe said QE wouldn’t happen in Australia until interest rates got down to 0.25%. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril goes through the take-outs from the speech yesterday. Plus, equities hit new highs in the US again on further hopes of a trade resolution with China. Phil Dobbie asks Rodrigo if, once again, the news really warrants the moves. The pound moved lower as Boris Johnson’s lead in the UK polls narrowed a little. Plus falling confidence in the US and the numbers behind their narrowing trade deficit. And a slug of US data out tonight, include inflation numbers and words from the RBNZ’s Adrian Orr first off this morning.

Tuesday 26th November 2019

The hope that something will happen soon between the US and china has sent US equities to new highs although, as Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s Ray Attrill, other asset classes haven’t felt the joy. If markets are moving to a risk-on mood, why isn’t the Aussie dollar a beneficiary? Today all eyes will be on the RBA Governor and how much he will about plans for QE in his talk tonight in Sydney about unconventional monetary policy.

Monday 25th November 2019

There was renewed hope that a phase one trade deal could be reached between the US and China by Christmas, with President Xi announcing tougher regulation of IP theft. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland how the markets will react to the weekend’s news. They also discuss some positive economic data from the US on Friday and concerning signs that the European downturn is spreading to the services sector. They discuss Christine Lagarde’s first major speech as Governor of the ECB and look ahead to the week’s data releases, plus the importance of Philip Lowe’s speech tomorrow.

Friday 22nd December 2019

The headlines in today’s US papers will be all about the testimony from Gordon Sondland to the impeachment hearings in Washington. In Israel the lead will be corruption charges against Benjamin Netanyahu. But these are in the sidelines compared to the markets’ anticipation of the next development in the US-China trade saga. As NAB’s Tapas Strickland discusses with Phil Dobbie, it’s still a waiting game, but as time passes equity markets are becoming more cautious. They also look at words from the Governor of the Bank of Canada, the Philly Fed’s business outlook overnight and what to expect from European PMIs tonight.