NAB Morning Call

Friday 24th May 2019

There have been significant moves overnight, with the US dollar losing ground against the Yen and Swiss Franc. But as NAB’s Gavin Friend explains to Phil Dobbie, this is not a traditional risk-off event, because EM currencies, including the Aussie dollar, have not been pulled down with it. The reason, it seems, is because there’s a growing expectation that a trade deal won’t be reached with China. Bond yields have also fallen markedly with the growing realisation that low inflation growth isn’t as transitory as Jerome Powell would have you believe.

Thursday 23rd May 2019

In the FOMC minutes released today, the Fed reiterated its pledge to wait and see on interest rates. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Gavin Friend whether the market is as patient as the Fed. The major market moves have come from continued trade war concerns, with the US considering a Huawei treatment on other Chinese technology firms. There’s a heap of European data today, plus the EU elections. And for a while it looked like Theresa May was about to resign, now it looks like she might just hang on to the end of the month ie the end of May. Plus, the plight of the Aussie dollar and the PMI data out this morning.

Thursday 23rd May 2019

In the FOMC minutes released today, the Fed reiterated its pledge to wait and see on interest rates. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Gavin Friend whether the market is as patient as the Fed. The major market moves have come from continued trade war concerns, with the US considering a Huawei treatment on other Chinese technology firms. There’s a heap of European data today, plus the EU elections. And for a while it looked like Theresa May was about to resign, now it looks like she might just hang on to the end of the month ie the end of May. Plus, the plight of the Aussie dollar and the PMI data out this morning.

Wednesday 22nd May 2019

The Australian dollar is close to it lowest level since January 2016. As NAB’s Ray Attril explains to Phil Dobbie, it’s all down to the RBA’s Philip Lowe, who gave the clearest hint possible that interest rates would be cut at their next meeting. If not, sometime soon after. The pound meanwhile had a short burst of optimism on the news that Theresa May would allow MPs to vote on another Brexit referendum, until the markets realised the conditions attached. And US equities have been boosted by a brief reprieve on Huawei trading restrictions. Plus a look at today’s FOMC minutes – will they include the word ‘transitory’?

Tuesday 21st May 2019

There’s further escalation of the US China trade dispute, as Google indicates it won’t be working as closely with Huawei ... after all, that’s what the President asked for. It's hit shares today, but bond yields have risen slightly ahead of Jerome Powell’s talk this morning - will he give a strong hint that a rate cut is coming? And what about Philip Lowe from the RBA, will he be doing the same? Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril on a day when words from central bank governors are front and centre.

Tuesday 21st May 2019

There’s further escalation of the US China trade dispute, as Google indicates it won’t be working as closely with Huawei ... after all, that’s what the President asked for. It's hit shares today, but bond yields have risen slightly ahead of Jerome Powell’s talk this morning - will he give a strong hint that a rate cut is coming? And what about Philip Lowe from the RBA, will he be doing the same? Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril on a day when words from central bank governors are front and centre.

Monday 20th May 2019

As you know, the Coalition had a surprise victory on Saturday night (we assume they will hold on top government in some form). As NAB’s David de Garis explains to Phil Dobbie, we’re already seeing a rise in the Aussie dollar, but there’s likely to be more interest in the actions of the RBA and the latest on the US trade war headwinds. On that, the US-China trade talks have been put on hold and, whilst auto tariffs have been delayed, the US President argues imported cars national security threat and he can impose his 25% if talks with Europe and Japan don’t go his way. Meanwhile, with the EU elections on Thursday, its another week when you wouldn’t want to be Theresa May.

Monday 20th May 2019

As you know, the Coalition had a surprise victory on Saturday night (we assume they will hold on top government in some form). As NAB’s David de Garis explains to Phil Dobbie, we’re already seeing a rise in the Aussie dollar, but there’s likely to be more interest in the actions of the RBA and the latest on the US trade war headwinds. On that, the US-China trade talks have been put on hold and, whilst auto tariffs have been delayed, the US President argues imported cars national security threat and he can impose his 25% if talks with Europe and Japan don’t go his way. Meanwhile, with the EU elections on Thursday, its another week when you wouldn’t want to be Theresa May.

Friday 17th May 2019

Overnight we saw rising US share indices and a strengthening dollar. As Phil Dobbie discusses with NBA’s Rodrigo Catril, its very different to the story back home, where rising unemployment numbers continue to pull the Aussie dollar down. Surely this is the catalyst for a rate cut? They discuss the factors driving markets higher in the US, and the consequences of a much-anticipated ban on Huawei. And the pound has been hit again as concerns of a no-deal Brexit rise with Theresa May announcing that she will set a timetable for her departure next month. Could Boris be PM?

Friday 17th May 2019

Overnight we saw rising US share indices and a strengthening dollar. As Phil Dobbie discusses with NBA’s Rodrigo Catril, its very different to the story back home, where rising unemployment numbers continue to pull the Aussie dollar down. Surely this is the catalyst for a rate cut? They discuss the factors driving markets higher in the US, and the consequences of a much-anticipated ban on Huawei. And the pound has been hit again as concerns of a no-deal Brexit rise with Theresa May announcing that she will set a timetable for her departure next month. Could Boris be PM?