NAB Morning Call

Thursday 9th May 2019

Overnight US equities have partially reversed their declines. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s David de Garis whether this reflects an assumption that a trade deal will be done with China, or at least delayed, and the threat of tariffs by the weekend won’t come to fruition? It seems to be the way of things lately, with Theresa May’s career hanging on by a thread and a new deadline, this time from Iran’s President Rouhani. It seems the clock is ticking on lots of fronts right now. They also discuss the wash-up from yesterdays rate cut by the RBNZ and the slide in the Aussie dollar overnight.

Wednesday 8th May 2019

US equities have been knocked again because those increased tariffs from the US on Chinese imports are looking more likely than not. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Tapas Strickland about a session that has seen a growing concern over trade. To add to the woes, the European Commission has downgraded forecasts again including a drastic cut for German growth. The Aussie dollar has lost the gains it made after the RBA kept rates on hold yesterday, but isn’t a cut just a matter of time? And does this mean the RBNZ is unlikely to cut today? Plus, the Tory backbenchers are planning a mutiny tonight. Will they change the rules to oust their Prime Minster?

Tuesday 7th May 2019

It’s not beyond the realm of possibility that the RBA could cut interest rates today. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril how likely that is. Will it also influence the RBNZ’s decision tomorrow? They also discuss the markets wait-and-see approach to the US-China trade talks after the swift response to Trump’s tweet yesterday, encouraging words from the Bank of Canada and signs of hope in European data overnight.

Monday 6th May 2019

The US President has been on Twitter in the last few hours threatening to lift tariffs on China by the end of the week, saying trade negotiation are moving too slowly. Phil Dobbier asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril whether the markets should take him seriously this time? Plus, what can we expect for the pound, which rose on the disastrous results for the Conservatives in the UK local elections. The expectation is a Brexit deal will be struck sooner, but could it backfire? Plus, non-farm payrolls painted a familiar picture on Friday, with more jobs but lower wage growth. Is this fuelling an overheated equities market?

Friday 3rd May 2019

Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s David de Garis about the market’s continuing reaction to Fed chair Jerome Powell’s ‘transitory’ remark on low inflation yesterday. It’s seen a further rise in US rates and a fall in equities. Will tonight’s non-farm payrolls data show continued low wage growth, or could they pick up? Plus, the Governor of the Bank of England suggests a Brexit deal would see rate hikes not currently priced in by the markets. Perhaps because few are expecting a deal anytime soon.

Friday 3rd May 2019

Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s David de Garis about the market’s continuing reaction to Fed chair Jerome Powell’s ‘transitory’ remark on low inflation yesterday. It’s seen a further rise in US rates and a fall in equities. Will tonight’s non-farm payrolls data show continued low wage growth, or could they pick up? Plus, the Governor of the Bank of England suggests a Brexit deal would see rate hikes not currently priced in by the markets. Perhaps because few are expecting a deal anytime soon.

Thursday 2nd May 2019

Markets moved sharply during Jerome Powell’s press conference following the Fed’s decision to keep rates on hold. It stemmed from his comments that, whilst inflation was lower than their target, it was expected to be only transitory. As Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s Gavin Friend, that saw the dollar bounce back, equities slide and 10 year yields move sharply upwards. So why are the markets so sensitive? We can expect less volatility when the Bank of England meets later, but could a Brexit deal be close?

Thursday 2nd May 2019

Markets moved sharply during Jerome Powell’s press conference following the Fed’s decision to keep rates on hold. It stemmed from his comments that, whilst inflation was lower than their target, it was expected to be only transitory. As Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s Gavin Friend, that saw the dollar bounce back, equities slide and 10 year yields move sharply upwards. So why are the markets so sensitive? We can expect less volatility when the Bank of England meets later, but could a Brexit deal be close?

Wednesday 1st May 2019

It’s less than a day before the FOMC meets and Jerome Powell talks to the press. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril what we should expect, whilst reviewing the choppiness in US equities, oil’s response to unrest in Venezuela and comments from the White House on the timing of the US China trade talks. They also review some positive data from Europe, as well as the possible impact from today’s Aussie house price data and US ISM manufacturing data tonight.

Wednesday 1st May 2019

It’s less than a day before the FOMC meets and Jerome Powell talks to the press. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril what we should expect, whilst reviewing the choppiness in US equities, oil’s response to unrest in Venezuela and comments from the White House on the timing of the US China trade talks. They also review some positive data from Europe, as well as the possible impact from today’s Aussie house price data and US ISM manufacturing data tonight.