NAB Morning Call

Friday August 10th 2018

A doveish RBNZ and the uncertainty over trade hurt the Kiwi dollar more than most overnight, with the Russian Rouble and the Turkish Lira also hit hard over US sanctions. Gavin Friend explains how this risk-off mood has spread across emerging markets, not helping the Kiwi or the Aussie dollar. But can’t we expect trade tensions to ease and our local currencies recover?

Friday August 10th 2018

A doveish RBNZ and the uncertainty over trade hurt the Kiwi dollar more than most overnight, with the Russian Rouble and the Turkish Lira also hit hard over US sanctions. Gavin Friend explains how this risk-off mood has spread across emerging markets, not helping the Kiwi or the Aussie dollar. But can’t we expect trade tensions to ease and our local currencies recover?

Thursday 9th August 2018

The markets are a little subdued this morning. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril whether this is to do with China’s (anticipated) retaliation against the US’s 25% tariff on $16 billlion worth of Chinese goods. Has China’s response made it seem real rather than rhetoric? They also discuss Japan’s trade talks that kick off today, what Philip Lowe had to say yesterday and the RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement this morning.

Thursday 9th August 2018

The markets are a little subdued this morning. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril whether this is to do with China’s (anticipated) retaliation against the US’s 25% tariff on $16 billlion worth of Chinese goods. Has China’s response made it seem real rather than rhetoric? They also discuss Japan’s trade talks that kick off today, what Philip Lowe had to say yesterday and the RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement this morning.

8th August 2018

The Renminbi rose today and, demonstrating its dependency, the Australian dollar followed suit. As NAB’s Ray Attrill explains, it’s the result of moves by the People’s Bank of China, keen to ensure the Yuan isn’t seen as a one way better, particularly in light of the looming trade war with the US. Speaking of which, today’s China trade balance figures will either please or upset President Trump. Phil Dobbie asks Ray how crucial these figures could be for Trump’s next steps. And after yesterday’s anticipated non-event, what next for the RBA?

8th August 2018

The Renminbi rose today and, demonstrating its dependency, the Australian dollar followed suit. As NAB’s Ray Attrill explains, it’s the result of moves by the People’s Bank of China, keen to ensure the Yuan isn’t seen as a one way better, particularly in light of the looming trade war with the US. Speaking of which, today’s China trade balance figures will either please or upset President Trump. Phil Dobbie asks Ray how crucial these figures could be for Trump’s next steps. And after yesterday’s anticipated non-event, what next for the RBA?

Tuesday 7th August 2018

As if the trade spat with China isn’t bad enough, the US move to push ahead with sanctions against Iran will heighten tensions with Europe. As NAB’s Gavin Friend points out, trade tensions are already hitting EU trade, evidenced by the latest German factory orders. Meanwhile, traders are feverishly shorting the pound as further warnings are issued about the possibility of a ‘no deal’ Brexit. To top it all, add the Italian budget to market concerns, with the coalition government ready to spend big. Phil Dobbie asks Gavin whether the RBA can ignore all these external tensions when the Board meets today.

Tuesday 7th August 2018

As if the trade spat with China isn’t bad enough, the US move to push ahead with sanctions against Iran will heighten tensions with Europe. As NAB’s Gavin Friend points out, trade tensions are already hitting EU trade, evidenced by the latest German factory orders. Meanwhile, traders are feverishly shorting the pound as further warnings are issued about the possibility of a ‘no deal’ Brexit. To top it all, add the Italian budget to market concerns, with the coalition government ready to spend big. Phil Dobbie asks Gavin whether the RBA can ignore all these external tensions when the Board meets today.

Monday August 6th 2018

Whilst the trade tariff rhetoric continues unabated between the US and China, President Trump will presumably be happy with a move by the Peoples Bank of China to stop the slide in the value of the Yuan. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s David de Garis whether the impact of this on the Aussie dollar on Friday could continue this week. They also discuss Friday’s payrolls data and service ISM from the US, and look ahead to the RBA and RBNA meets this week.

Monday August 6th 2018

Whilst the trade tariff rhetoric continues unabated between the US and China, President Trump will presumably be happy with a move by the Peoples Bank of China to stop the slide in the value of the Yuan. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s David de Garis whether the impact of this on the Aussie dollar on Friday could continue this week. They also discuss Friday’s payrolls data and service ISM from the US, and look ahead to the RBA and RBNA meets this week.