NAB Morning Call

Friday 15th June 2018

The ECB announced today, as anticipated, that their QE program will finish at the end of the year. But markets weren’t quite expecting the anticipated delay in raising rates – which could be late in 2019. As Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s David de Garis, the response has been a sharp fall in the Euro, pulling the Aussie down with it and helping the US dollar to continue its rally. They also discuss the US tariffs on China and bad news for Theresa May whose Withdrawal Bill seems to have unwound itself. Plus a look at data and events to follow today.

Friday 15th June 2018

The ECB announced today, as anticipated, that their QE program will finish at the end of the year. But markets weren’t quite expecting the anticipated delay in raising rates – which could be late in 2019. As Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s David de Garis, the response has been a sharp fall in the Euro, pulling the Aussie down with it and helping the US dollar to continue its rally. They also discuss the US tariffs on China and bad news for Theresa May whose Withdrawal Bill seems to have unwound itself. Plus a look at data and events to follow today.

Thursday 14th June 2018

The US Federal Reserve lifted interest rates this morning, as expected. They also added a dot point, meaning they envisage two more rate rises this year. We can expect no movement at the ECB tonight, but will this be the meeting they announce the timetable for the ending of QE. NAB’s Ray Attrill talks Phil Dobbie through a busy day for the markets, which also includes UK retail sales data, China’s Industrial Production numbers, and Aussie employment figures. And from left field, President Trump is reportedly set to impose tariffs on China from tomorrow.

Thursday 14th June 2018

The US Federal Reserve lifted interest rates this morning, as expected. They also added a dot point, meaning they envisage two more rate rises this year. We can expect no movement at the ECB tonight, but will this be the meeting they announce the timetable for the ending of QE. NAB’s Ray Attrill talks Phil Dobbie through a busy day for the markets, which also includes UK retail sales data, China’s Industrial Production numbers, and Aussie employment figures. And from left field, President Trump is reportedly set to impose tariffs on China from tomorrow.

Wednesday 13th June 2018

There was little market reaction to the big deal and emerging bromance between President’s Kim and Trump. As Phil Dobbie and NAB’s Rodrigo Catril discuss, there was considerably less love in the House of Commons where the Brexit process gets progressively more complex, but is likely to feature more parliamentary involvement from hereon in. Ivan Colhoun, NAB Markets’ Chief Economist also joins in to highlight the key points from yesterday’s NAB Business Survey, and Rodrigo explains why the IOER rate is something to watch for in tomorrow’s FOMC announcement.

Wednesday 13th June 2018

There was little market reaction to the big deal and emerging bromance between President’s Kim and Trump. As Phil Dobbie and NAB’s Rodrigo Catril discuss, there was considerably less love in the House of Commons where the Brexit process gets progressively more complex, but is likely to feature more parliamentary involvement from hereon in. Ivan Colhoun, NAB Markets’ Chief Economist also joins in to highlight the key points from yesterday’s NAB Business Survey, and Rodrigo explains why the IOER rate is something to watch for in tomorrow’s FOMC announcement.

Tuesday 12th June 2018

President Trump is hours away from a one-on-one meeting with Kim Jong Un (just the two of them, plus interpreter), having left the G7 talks in a state of disarray. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Gavin Friend if we can expect any market reaction to the Singapore Summit, whichever way it goes. They also discuss the response to the spat between Trump and Trudeau, the disappointing manufacturing data from the UK and the start of a busy week for central banks and Brexit talks.

Tuesday 12th June 2018

President Trump is hours away from a one-on-one meeting with Kim Jong Un (just the two of them, plus interpreter), having left the G7 talks in a state of disarray. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Gavin Friend if we can expect any market reaction to the Singapore Summit, whichever way it goes. They also discuss the response to the spat between Trump and Trudeau, the disappointing manufacturing data from the UK and the start of a busy week for central banks and Brexit talks.

Friday 8th June 2018

Leaders going into G7 seem to be holding their positions firm on trade tariffs and the Iran Nuclear Deal. So much so, it’s unlikely the markets will pay too much attention. It might be the same with the North Korea summit that the President discussed today, saying it will take several meetings to get anywhere. Instead, NAB’s Gavin Friend pays attention to continued strength in the Euro, the outcome of next week’s ECB meeting and what it all means for emerging markets. He also discusses the Tory party’s Brexit talks today that almost saw David Davis, the Brexit secretary, resigning over the whole thing. Who can blame him!

Friday 8th June 2018

Leaders going into G7 seem to be holding their positions firm on trade tariffs and the Iran Nuclear Deal. So much so, it’s unlikely the markets will pay too much attention. It might be the same with the North Korea summit that the President discussed today, saying it will take several meetings to get anywhere. Instead, NAB’s Gavin Friend pays attention to continued strength in the Euro, the outcome of next week’s ECB meeting and what it all means for emerging markets. He also discusses the Tory party’s Brexit talks today that almost saw David Davis, the Brexit secretary, resigning over the whole thing. Who can blame him!