NAB Morning Call

Friday 29th June 2018

The New Zealand dollar has taken a hit. NAB’s Gavin Friend puts it all down to one word change in the RBNZ statement yesterday. Meanwhile markets remain confused and concerned about the continuing trade tensions, whilst the EU Summit kicks off with, for once, Brexit not the main bone of contention. The real issue is putting a lid on migration, but it seems unlikely the Eurocrats will find a solution over one weekend.

Friday 29th June 2018

The New Zealand dollar has taken a hit. NAB’s Gavin Friend puts it all down to one word change in the RBNZ statement yesterday. Meanwhile markets remain confused and concerned about the continuing trade tensions, whilst the EU Summit kicks off with, for once, Brexit not the main bone of contention. The real issue is putting a lid on migration, but it seems unlikely the Eurocrats will find a solution over one weekend.

The markets hoped for a while that President Trump was signalling a more measured approach when he announced they wouldn’t be using emergency powers to limit Chinese investment in US technology companies. But, as NAB’s David de Garis discusses with Phil Dobbie, the new approach isn’t any softer. Larry Kudlow was quite clear on that. Plus, a yield curve that continues to flatten, a Renminbi that continues to weaken and a share market that continues to fall.

The markets hoped for a while that President Trump was signalling a more measured approach when he announced they wouldn’t be using emergency powers to limit Chinese investment in US technology companies. But, as NAB’s David de Garis discusses with Phil Dobbie, the new approach isn’t any softer. Larry Kudlow was quite clear on that. Plus, a yield curve that continues to flatten, a Renminbi that continues to weaken and a share market that continues to fall.

Wednesday 27th June 2018

The US wants its allies to all cut imports from Iran to “zero” or face possible sanctions themselves. As NAB’s Ray Attrill explains, it pushed oil prices higher today, whilst equities have rebounded from yesterday’s caution. Phil Dobbie asks Ray whether the Fed has highlighting any changes to its monetary approach given the escalating trade tensions. They also discuss the flattening yield curve, and how the Bank of England’s MPC “rookie” talked the pound down today.

Wednesday 27th June 2018

The US wants its allies to all cut imports from Iran to “zero” or face possible sanctions themselves. As NAB’s Ray Attrill explains, it pushed oil prices higher today, whilst equities have rebounded from yesterday’s caution. Phil Dobbie asks Ray whether the Fed has highlighting any changes to its monetary approach given the escalating trade tensions. They also discuss the flattening yield curve, and how the Bank of England’s MPC “rookie” talked the pound down today.

Tuesday 26th June 2018

Harley Davidson has announced they plan to shift some production overseas to avoid retaliatory tariffs slammed on US exports. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland whether this is the same as Airbus threatening to leave the UK after a hard Brexit - a bit of rhetoric that won’t come to fruition? Certainly, the markets are a little uncertain about how to price the rising tariff confusion, with equities hit hard today but other risk-off signs – such as gold and bonds – hardly moving. They also discuss the political climate in Europe, calls for the RBA to lift rates earlier, and why the rising Australian BBSW-OIS spread lately?

Tuesday 26th June 2018

Harley Davidson has announced they plan to shift some production overseas to avoid retaliatory tariffs slammed on US exports. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland whether this is the same as Airbus threatening to leave the UK after a hard Brexit - a bit of rhetoric that won’t come to fruition? Certainly, the markets are a little uncertain about how to price the rising tariff confusion, with equities hit hard today but other risk-off signs – such as gold and bonds – hardly moving. They also discuss the political climate in Europe, calls for the RBA to lift rates earlier, and why the rising Australian BBSW-OIS spread lately?

Monday 25th June 2018

President Trump’s protectionist measures and OPEC’s increased oil production could be the two major market influences this morning. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB;’s Rodrigo Catril about the latest trade announcements from Trump, including word on controls on Chinese investments in the US, as well as what came out of the OPEC+ meeting over the weekend. They also look at the health of the European economy, mixed with political uncertainty for Angela Merkel; and could the Bank of Canada delay the next expected rate rise?

Monday 25th June 2018

President Trump’s protectionist measures and OPEC’s increased oil production could be the two major market influences this morning. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB;’s Rodrigo Catril about the latest trade announcements from Trump, including word on controls on Chinese investments in the US, as well as what came out of the OPEC+ meeting over the weekend. They also look at the health of the European economy, mixed with political uncertainty for Angela Merkel; and could the Bank of Canada delay the next expected rate rise?