NAB Morning Call

Friday July 6th 2018

It could be a fiery day, with Theresa May’s cabinet meeting to disagree on Brexit, whilst China and the US launch new tariffs against each other. But, on a brighter note, as Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s Rodrigo Catril, the Fed, ECB and the BoE seem a little more hawkish, indicating that, whatever is going on in the background, their economies seem to be faring well – and they’d like investors to acknowledge that.

Friday July 6th 2018

It could be a fiery day, with Theresa May’s cabinet meeting to disagree on Brexit, whilst China and the US launch new tariffs against each other. But, on a brighter note, as Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s Rodrigo Catril, the Fed, ECB and the BoE seem a little more hawkish, indicating that, whatever is going on in the background, their economies seem to be faring well – and they’d like investors to acknowledge that.

Thursday 5th July 2018

On an otherwise quiet day there was some volatility in the Yuan on reports that China is happy with a weakening currency. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill what to believe – isn’t this contrary to yesterday’s news that they wanted to keep it stable? There’s also discussion on the UK’s strong services data overnight and the looming Brexit showdown tomorrow. Plus, is the ECB trying to reposition expectations for the timing of the next rate hike?

Thursday 5th July 2018

On an otherwise quiet day there was some volatility in the Yuan on reports that China is happy with a weakening currency. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill what to believe – isn’t this contrary to yesterday’s news that they wanted to keep it stable? There’s also discussion on the UK’s strong services data overnight and the looming Brexit showdown tomorrow. Plus, is the ECB trying to reposition expectations for the timing of the next rate hike?

Wednesday 4th July 2018

Overnight we saw US stocks fall and bond yields up, but the real action has been in China with a weakening of the Renminbi reportedly kept under control by lots of buying from state banks. NAB’s David de Garis talks through the impact of the PBoC’s assurances that they will keep the exchange rate stable, in particular what it means for the Aussie and Kiwi dollars, who finished the night in positive territory. Phil Dobbie also asks whether Sweden’s inflation forecasts to extend to Europe soon – and they look briefly at Theresa May’s new plan. Can she push it through without losing a few in her cabinet? Oh, and happy 4th July!

Wednesday 4th July 2018

Overnight we saw US stocks fall and bond yields up, but the real action has been in China with a weakening of the Renminbi reportedly kept under control by lots of buying from state banks. NAB’s David de Garis talks through the impact of the PBoC’s assurances that they will keep the exchange rate stable, in particular what it means for the Aussie and Kiwi dollars, who finished the night in positive territory. Phil Dobbie also asks whether Sweden’s inflation forecasts to extend to Europe soon – and they look briefly at Theresa May’s new plan. Can she push it through without losing a few in her cabinet? Oh, and happy 4th July!

Tuesday 3rd July 2018

The Aussie and Kiwi dollar were two of the worst performing currencies overnight. NAB’s Tapas Strickland explains that it is a reflection of rising uncertainty – the imminent tariffs against China (and expected retaliatory trade war), the glacial movement in Brexit and the stability of Angela Merkel’s German government. Three issues concerning investors, which could all ratchet up a notch as the week progresses. Even the positive news overnight, the US PMI figures, has a dark side.

Tuesday 3rd July 2018

The Aussie and Kiwi dollar were two of the worst performing currencies overnight. NAB’s Tapas Strickland explains that it is a reflection of rising uncertainty – the imminent tariffs against China (and expected retaliatory trade war), the glacial movement in Brexit and the stability of Angela Merkel’s German government. Three issues concerning investors, which could all ratchet up a notch as the week progresses. Even the positive news overnight, the US PMI figures, has a dark side.

President Trump seems to think he has solved the dilemma of rising oil prices with one phone call to King Salman of Saudi Arabia. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill if that is one crisis we can cross off the list? Even if it was, there’s plenty more. The escalation in rhetoric over tariffs, Trump’s views on the WTO and investors pulling out of equity markets. Whilst Horst Seehofer, Angela Merkel's coalition partner, said he would not accept the EU deal on migrants, but has just announced his resignation. Not the quietest way to start the week.

President Trump seems to think he has solved the dilemma of rising oil prices with one phone call to King Salman of Saudi Arabia. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill if that is one crisis we can cross off the list? Even if it was, there’s plenty more. The escalation in rhetoric over tariffs, Trump’s views on the WTO and investors pulling out of equity markets. Whilst Horst Seehofer, Angela Merkel's coalition partner, said he would not accept the EU deal on migrants, but has just announced his resignation. Not the quietest way to start the week.