NAB Morning Call

Friday 20th July 2018

Donald Trump wiped out the day’s gains in the US dollar in one tweet – attacking the Fed’s approach to interest rates, saying higher rates wipe out the good work he’s been doing on the economy. NAB’s Ray Attrill says that’s not all he’s been attacking. The weakening Chinese Yuan and the European antitrust fine against Google are also in his sights. Phil Dobbie also asks Ray about the impact of a commodities downturn on the Aussie dollar, which seems to have offset the gains made by positive employment data yesterday.

Friday 20th July 2018

Donald Trump wiped out the day’s gains in the US dollar in one tweet – attacking the Fed’s approach to interest rates, saying higher rates wipe out the good work he’s been doing on the economy. NAB’s Ray Attrill says that’s not all he’s been attacking. The weakening Chinese Yuan and the European antitrust fine against Google are also in his sights. Phil Dobbie also asks Ray about the impact of a commodities downturn on the Aussie dollar, which seems to have offset the gains made by positive employment data yesterday.

Thursday 19th July 2018

Jerome Powell was upbeat in front of the House Committee on Financial Services overnight, helping support the US dollar. It strengthened the dollar, with warnings on tariffs from Christine Lagarde having little impact. But the pound took a hit today. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Gavin Friend whether slowing inflation could cause the Bank of England to rethink the prospect of an August rate rise. They also look ahead to today’s employment data in Australia and the quarterly NAB Business survey.

Thursday 19th July 2018

Jerome Powell was upbeat in front of the House Committee on Financial Services overnight, helping support the US dollar. It strengthened the dollar, with warnings on tariffs from Christine Lagarde having little impact. But the pound took a hit today. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Gavin Friend whether slowing inflation could cause the Bank of England to rethink the prospect of an August rate rise. They also look ahead to today’s employment data in Australia and the quarterly NAB Business survey.

Wednesday 18th July 2018

Jerome Powell has struck a cautious note in his testimony to the Senate Banking Committee. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril whether the flattening yield curve is the major cause for concern. Mark Carney has also been talking to the government, suggesting the EU will fare worse than the UK if there’s a hard Brexit – although he admits neither will do well out of it. Rodrigo isn’t sure the EU will come off the worst. They also discuss the EU Japan free trade deal, May’s narrow victory on the trade bill (and why that’s important), UK and European CPI and signs of rising inflation in New Zealand. Plus, the growth in US equities as most companies report strong earning results. For Netflix, good just wasn’t good enough.

Wednesday 18th July 2018

Jerome Powell has struck a cautious note in his testimony to the Senate Banking Committee. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril whether the flattening yield curve is the major cause for concern. Mark Carney has also been talking to the government, suggesting the EU will fare worse than the UK if there’s a hard Brexit – although he admits neither will do well out of it. Rodrigo isn’t sure the EU will come off the worst. They also discuss the EU Japan free trade deal, May’s narrow victory on the trade bill (and why that’s important), UK and European CPI and signs of rising inflation in New Zealand. Plus, the growth in US equities as most companies report strong earning results. For Netflix, good just wasn’t good enough.

Tuesday 17th July 2018

President Trump seems quite enamoured with the Russian President at their summit in Helsinki. As Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s Gavin Friend he was even prepared to trust the word of the Russian President over his own agencies. Meanwhile China has been wooing the EU in Beijing. Neither event really moved markets, yet, but the dissent in the UK has weakened the pound. Theresa May, herself severely weakened, has accepted four amendments to her Brexit proposal – as Gavin asks, why would she do that unless something is afoot?

Tuesday 17th July 2018

President Trump seems quite enamoured with the Russian President at their summit in Helsinki. As Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s Gavin Friend he was even prepared to trust the word of the Russian President over his own agencies. Meanwhile China has been wooing the EU in Beijing. Neither event really moved markets, yet, but the dissent in the UK has weakened the pound. Theresa May, herself severely weakened, has accepted four amendments to her Brexit proposal – as Gavin asks, why would she do that unless something is afoot?

Monday 16th July 2018

China’s M2 money supply grew less than expected on Friday. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill whether the country’s economy is growing slower than anticipated – particularly given the escalating trade war. They also discuss Brexit, with a vote today on Theresa May’s new white paper as more staunch Brexiteer ministers resign. Could Britain he heading for a hard Brexit after all?

Monday 16th July 2018

China’s M2 money supply grew less than expected on Friday. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill whether the country’s economy is growing slower than anticipated – particularly given the escalating trade war. They also discuss Brexit, with a vote today on Theresa May’s new white paper as more staunch Brexiteer ministers resign. Could Britain he heading for a hard Brexit after all?