NAB Morning Call

Monday 23rd June 2025

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer 

Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

You think it’d be a choppy start for markets today, following the weekend bombing of Iranian uranium enrichment facilities by the US. But NAB’s Tapas Strickland explains to Phil why the response might be a little tamer than you'd expect. He explains how many were aware that a strike was imminent based on readily available Google data. They also discuss the worrying rise in Japanese inflation, the slowdown in UK and Canadian retail sales, and coming up, the contrast between US and European PMIs. 

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 20th June 2025

Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.

Research by CEDA (the Committee for Economic Development of Australia) shows that in the last fifty years or so the construction industry has not made the productivity gains experienced in manufacturing. In fact, the dwellings made by each construction worker has fallen by about 50 percent since the 1970s. James Brook, an economist at CEDA, worked on a recent report ‘Size Matters: Why Construction Productivity is So Weak’.

The report highlights that, as well as the difficulty in sourcing materials, and the rising bureaucracy around planning regulations, the predominance of very small businesses in the construction sector is a barrier to the adoption of more productive techniques. James takes Phil through their findings in this weekend’s podcast.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 20th June 2025

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer 

Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

Oil prices are still elevated over the question on whether the US will side with Israel in the war with Iran and the possible repercussions of such a move. But the US President has left the door open for negotiations, now saying he’ll decide on US involvement in the next two weeks. Meanwhile, the Bank of England kept rates on hold, whilst the Norges Bank and Swiss National Bank both cut rates. NAB’s Gavin Friend says this was the first cut in this cycle for the Norges Bank. He also discusses with Phil Australia’s employment data from yesterday and looks ahead to UK retail sales and Japan’s national CPI.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 19th June 2025

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer 

Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

The Fed agree unanimously to keep rates on hold, but the expectation of two cuts this year was enough for shares to rise a little today before finishing flat, no doubt driven down by geopolitical uncertainty and more weak data. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says the one central bank that did surprise was the Riksbank. A cut was priced in, and was delivered, but the market was surprised at the prosect of another cut.

Tapas also talks about the perceived challenges to the US dollar as the global reserve, with the PBoC Head talking about a new world currency order, where no one currency dominates. The main number today is the Australian employment read, and three central banks meet, including the Bank of England. Everyone today though will be keeping one eye focused on the news - will the US be drawn into the Iraq-Iran war? 

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 18th June 2025

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer 

Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

Markets are squeamish today as fears mount that the US will become more involved in the war between Israel and Iran. Certainly, the optimism that the whole affair will be over in a hurry has diminished, with the US dollar higher, oil much higher and equities taking a hit.

NAB’s Sally Auld says markets are unnerved by the President’s comments as parts of the US military complex converge on the Middle East. There’s also some discussion on further weak economic data from the US a day out from the Fed meeting and it’s revised dots plot.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 17th June 2025

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer 

Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

Markets seem optimistic that a resolution between Israel and Iran will be found. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says there’s a general feeling that Iran has its back against the wall and is trying to communicate that they want to d e-escalate the situation. Despite today’s market reaction, there doesn’t seem any evidence of a slowdown in the hostilities. Meanwhile, a Bank of America note overnight suggests central banks have been pulling out of the US dollar since March. Rodrigo also talks through the latest activity data from China, looks ahead to US retail sales today and prepares us for a week that could see a lot of movement in the US Big Beautiful Bill.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 16th June 2025

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer 

Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

Since Israel fired bombs into Iran on Friday there has been bombardment on both sides. NAB’s Ray Attrill talks about how the US dollar has resumed its safe haven status, with the Aussie losing ground as risk-off sentiment rises. Phil asks whether this pattern could worsen as the war seems set for more escalation rather than a rapid resolution. It will be the focus of the G7 summit over the next few days, perhaps pushing tariff talks down the order of things, even though Trump’s individual offers are set to be dished out within the next week. Six major central banks meet this week, including the Fed, with the revision of dot-plots getting the most attention.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 13th June 2025

Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.

Data from CreditorWatch shows that almost one in ten hospitality businesses in Australia shut down in the 12 months to April. Whilst the growth in insolvencies has levelled off this year, it doesn’t mean the worst is over. Michael Fingland, CEO of Brisbane-based turnaround specialists Vantage Performance, fears that the cost of living is starting to bite for businesses reliant on discretionary spend. So, what should companies be doing when income is falling and costs are rising? Michael offers some sage advice and explains how turnaround specialists tackle the issue - even for companies that are trading insolvent. 

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 13th June 2025

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer 

Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

Producer prices in the US, just like CPI, seem to have had very little impact from tariffs so far. But jobless claims are rising.  NAB’s ray Attrill says the continuing claims are similar to recession levels. All the more reason for the Fed to cut rates - but not the 2% that President Trump is now looking for. Meanwhile the President has reminded everyone that he is serious about tariffs, with envelopes ready to send to trading partners with their own bespoke tariff. That helped push the US dollar down to a two-year low. Trade and tariffs will undoubtedly be talked about at the G7 summit that kicks off this weekend in Alberta, Canada.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 12th June 2025

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer 

Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

Two big bits of news overnight, First, a trade deal has been reached between the US and China, that secures supplies of China’s rare earths for the US, and allows China to import goods that had previously been blocked. But, as NAB’s Sally Auld says, it really is a statement on what was talked about in Geneva, and tariffs remain in place, at 55% on China’s exports. No surprise then, that equity markets are far from excited about it. More significant was the softer US CPI print in May. The impacts of tariffs are not making a big stamp on prices, yet, but again the market response was restrained, because its still too early to tell. PPI numbers later today might tell a different story.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.