NAB Morning Call

Thursday 29th May 2025

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NVIDIA results show the chip manufacturer has beaten estimates on revenue, but has fallen behind on gross margin and EPS. Nonetheless, their share price was initially up in after-hours trade. It comes after a session that saw sharp falls in US and European equities. NAB’s Tapas Strickland joins Phil to discuss the RBNZ cuts, another weak long-dated bond auction, the FOMC minutes (just out) and yesterday’s Australian CPI report. Plus, some interesting observations from the Australian treasury Secretary last night. And confirmation of Trump’s hit-big then negotiate approach, that could still see us all left with a residual 10% tariff, at best.

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Wednesday 28th May 2025

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In the US investors left for the long weekend with the sudden news of a major tariff hike on European goods just a week away. They were back at their desks on Tuesday morning with the news that that wasn’t happening - not this week anyway. The result has been a jump in US shares, coinciding with the Conference board survey also jumping back from the postponement of Liberation Day tariffs. Also today, NAB’s Taylor Nugent explains why we’ve seen a 19bp drop in 30 year Japanese yields. He also previews today’s CPI figures for Australia and the priced-in 25bp cut from the RBNZ today. But what next?

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Tuesday 27th May 2025

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European equities rose on Monday on the back of the news that the imposition of higher tariffs on Europe have been pushed back a month. Does that also mean the result will be lower than the threatened 50 percent? NAB’s Rodrigo Catril talks about how the Trump technique might start to lose some of its impact as politicians and markets get used to the shock and awe approach. And ECB chief Christine Lagarde didn’t hold back in a speech on Monday talking about how “multilateral cooperation is being replaced by zero-sum thinking and bilateral power plays”. Meanwhile, there’s been another small fall in the US dollar, and a rise in the CNY and the Aussie touching its highest level for the year to date. Today the US and UK return from holidays, with consumer confidence data and durable goods orders for the US.

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Monday 26th May 2025

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President Trump on Friday said that negotiations were not moving with the EU and he would impose a 50 percent tariff on the EU from this coming weekend. We’re hearing now that EU President Ursula von der Leyen has spoken to the President and believes a good deal can be done if they have until July 9th. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the market reaction on Friday to the original news was a return of the Sell America theme we saw in early April – with falling equities, rising bond yields and a falling US dollar. Much of that was the result of last week’s rising fiscal concerns, but it was compounded by the tariff news on Friday. That makes the outcome of those tariff talks the key theme of what is otherwise a relatively quiet week.

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Friday 16th May 2025

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We made the call to our listeners, what would you like to ask NAB CEO Andrew Irvine? This week Phil puts your questions directly to him, with topics ranging from the health of the global economy, this week’s RBA decision and NAB’s earnings results, not forgetting the perennial concern about housing affordability. Some of your questions were forthright. How do we fix the wealth gap? Why is NAB’s P/E ratio so much lower than CommBank’s? Are banks too reliant on housing loans? It was a frank discussion, that we look forward to repeating soon.

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Friday 23rd May 2025

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US bond yields rose higher still this session, before retracing their steps. Interestingly they started falling after the House passed the Big Beautiful Tax Bill, even though that is expected to add significantly to the US government deficit, which is seen as one of the reasons for the rise in bond yields in the first place.  Does this mean US bond yields could continue their upward trajectory? NAB’s a Ken Crompton says it’s not unusual to see a reassessment after the sharp response to yesterday’s weak 20-year bond auction. The PMIs for Europe and thew US didn’t carry any major surprises, but weaker than expected for Germany. Yet the German IFO showed sentiment from companies is improving. Today retail data is the focus, for New Zealand, the UK and Canada. Phil and Ken also discuss the NZ budget and Andrew Hauser’s speech last night at the Lowy Institute in Sydney.

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Thursday 22nd May 2025

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There was another weak bond auction in the US overnight, pushing yields ever higher. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says there is a risk premium being applied to US bonds, from concerns over tariffs and, perhaps more significantly, rising government debt. The Big Beautiful Bill could add significantly to the government’s debt at a time when the balance of trade is deteriorating. Phil asks, should we be worried? Also today, a bigger than expected increase in UK CPI, but how much of it is down to one-off impacts? Today, the New Zealand Budget and US and European PMIs give a suggestion of which economies are taking the biggest hit from Trump’s tariffs.

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Wednesday 21st May 2025

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Bond yields fell significantly in Australia yesterday after the RBA’s rate cut. NAB’s Sally Auld says markets were divided as to what the central bank would do - some even thought they would keep rates on hold. NAB made the call for a 50bp cut, whereas ultimately it was just 25bp, but Sally says she feels somewhat vindicated because the board did discuss a larger move down.   Phil asks whether by the year end we could see a situation where the RBA has moved markedly lower, whilst the Fed, faced with persistence inflation, has to keep rates higher. Alongside Aussie bond yields, Japanese yields were the other big mover, although their yields were moving higher after a disappointing 20-year auction. It’s also a session that’s seen an end to the rally in US stocks. The S&P didn’t quite make it to a bull run. UK inflation will rise today, but mainly because April was a nasty month for bill shock from utility companies.

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Tuesday 20th May 2025

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Fairly tepid moves across equities, bonds and currencies today with very little data and not much in the way of big announcements. The Deal of the Day probably goes to the UK and EU, who have agreed to less in the way of checks and bureaucracy for British food exports, in exchange for prolonged access to UK fishing waters. It also facilitates European spending with the UK Defence sector, something that might be important as nothing concrete came out the Trump-Putin phone call today.  The RBA is expected to cut between 25bp (market consensus) and 50bp (NAB’s call), whilst Fed speakers are increasingly downplaying the idea of any cuts in the US before September at the earliest. NAB’s Taylor Nugent joins Phil to talk through the day’s moves and news.

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Monday 19th May 2025

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There’s a lot of talk going on right now and President Trump is at the centre of most of it. Phil talks to NAB’s Ray Attrill about a plethora of negotiations that could influence markets this week. First, the Trump call to Putin, followed by a call to Zelensky. Can he break the deadlock? There are also negotiations going on with the EU. Documents have reportedly changed hands, and JD Vance met with Ursula von der Leyen and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni on Sunday. It might  be in the nick of time, because Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Sunday that tariff levels will go back to April 2nd levels to those countries that haven’t negotiated with the US in good faith. And in the US, where Republicans have voted against the Big Beautiful Tax Bill, the spending committee is meeting now to plan a way through the standoff. On Friday markets reacted to the cut to Moody’s US credit ratings, although Ray says it’s really of little consequence. And locally, the focus is on the RBA tomorrow, and just how big a cut will they make?

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