NAB Morning Call

Tuesday 6th May 2025

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There’s much less enthusiasm in the markets today, with US equities finishing deeply in the red at session lows, finishing a nine-day winning streak. There’s no readily apparent reason, except perhaps for concerns the scope and timing of US trade deals. The Taiwanese dollar rose further today over reports that a trade deal would be based on an appreciation in their currency. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks through the latest tariff news, the latest Services ISM data for the US, as well as the declines in oil prices as OPEC+ increase supplies at a time of an expected global downturn.  

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Monday 5th May 2025

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There was a risk-on Friday, as the price of equities rose, and repricing of Fed rate cut expectations saw bond yields rising too.  NAB’s Tapas Strickland says there are two reasons for this optimism. First, the continued hope that some sort of truce will be found in the tariff war between the US and China, and secondly the strength in the labour market demonstrated in non-farm payrolls on Friday. The cautionary note is that this report is based on jobs held just a few days after ‘Liberation Day’. Still, no rush yet for the Fed to cut rates, hence the repricing. It was the opposite story  in Australia on Friday, where a surprise plateauing of retail sales reinforces the need for a cut at the next RBA meeting, as well as raising the case for successive cuts this year. 

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Friday 2nd May 2025

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Australian house prices are back on the rise, but how sustainable is this growth considering global economic uncertainty. Or will any potential external factors be more than offset by falling interest rates? Core Logic’s Eliza Owen joins Phil to discuss what’s been happening in Australia’s capital city and regional markets and where could see the most growth this year. Also, what influence will affordability have on the housing market? Could we see a situation where price growth slows when a peak in the price people will pay for rent starts to impact yields?

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Friday 2nd May 2025

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It’s been a session heavy on news and data, largely seen as positive, particularly inequity markets although they lost some of their gains towards the US close. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says two things were driving shares higher. First, yesterday’s string earnings results for Microsoft and Meta. Secondly, the Manufacturing ISM, although down, was better  than expected. Markets have taken that as a good sign and repriced rate cut expectations from the Fed, but Rodrigo is more cautious. Data from May and June will be more representative of the impact of the Trump trade agenda. On that, tonight’s, non-farm payrolls could be very influential. The continuing jobless claims overnight could be a warning sign, heading up to a multi-year high.

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Thursday 1st May 2025

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Markets responded to a larger than expected fall in US GDP reported this morning. But, as NAB’s Skye Masters suggests, equity markets clawed their way back in late trade. Perhaps its because the fall was largely driven by short term factors, in particular a much higher than expected level of imports, cars in particular, ahead of the imposition of tariffs. Canada saw a similar impact on their GDP read, whilst the European economy was exempt from such impacts. Yesterday’s Aussie CPI print gives no reason for the RBA to avoid a rate cut this month. They have been overly cautious on their outlook for inflation, says Skye. The focus now switches to US jobs, with non-farm payrolls tomorrow night, the weekly jobless claims tonight, and a weaker than expected growth number in the ADP figures last night. Plus the earnings or Meta and Microsoft.

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Wednesday 30th April 2025

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We are in the thick of economic data today - Aussie CPI, European and US GDP, US wages and the core PCE deflator. We’ve just seen weaking confidence in the Conference Board’s latest survey. Yet equity markets continue to rise. In fact, the S&P has had its biggest six day rise since March 2022. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says some the optimism is the hope that tariffs will be wound back, with U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick saying a trade deal has been reached, but he’s not going to say who with just yet. President Trump gives his big 100-day rally in a few hours’ time. It will be a beautiful thing.

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Tuesday 29th April 2025

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Markets were more subdued for most of the session overnight, with shares in the US down until a reversal in the last hour of trade. The hopes of a quick resolution to US-China is seeming less likely. For a start, are the two sides talking? NAB’s Tapas Strickland says President Trump claimed he had spoken to President Xi, but China denies any negotiations are taking place. Meanwhile shipments from China are well down and will be felt in retail stores in a week or so. The Dallas Fed manufacturing general business activity index fell 20 points to -35.8, its lowest reading since May 2020, during COVID. UK economist Paul Krugman overnight likened it all to COVID, without a vaccine.

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Monday 28th April 2025

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Markets stayed positive through most of last week on the hope that trade deals will be done, and tariffs are being used as leverage rather than being a permanent fixture. But Phil asks NAB’s Ray Attrill what if deals aren’t done. A source report in the Wall Street Journal outlined the extensive topics to be covered in these deals. If solutions aren’t reached, does the US President reimpose his April 2 tariffs? He gives a big address of Tuesday, his 100th day in office, when that might be made clearer. Locally, CPI for Australia will be the key data point and will be highly influential on what the RBA does next.

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Thursday 24th April 2025

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The US dollar will continue to slide, come what May. And probably come what June and July. Whilst he’s reluctant to be drawn too closely on timing, NAB’s Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy, says we can expect to see the US dollar fall another 10 percent, at least, with the Aussie returning about the 70 cent mark. Phil asks if that’s the best-case scenario; one where trade deals are agreed and tariffs minimised. What if the hefty tariffs return? Or Trump deposes Jerome Powell? Or the US heads into a recession? Whichever way you spin it, Ray says the US dollar is getting weaker and it’s not a short-term change. The weaker dollar could be around for a long time.

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Thursday 24th April 2025

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US equities rose again this session, and te US dollar strengthened for the second session, as the Trump administration talked up the possibility of cuts to China’s tariffs. The Wall Street Journal reports the levies could be cut by more than half in some cases, although there’s declaration from Trump himself, or any indication of when  this might happen. But as NAB’s Taylor Nugent explains, that’s not stopped markets seeing the positive side of it all. PMIs came in a little weaker than expected across Europe and the US, although manufacturing did somewhat better than services. It’s mainly second tier data today and tomorrow, and a ceasefire deal between Ukraine and Russia is looking less likely – if it’s accepted it’s a win for Russia.

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