NAB Morning Call

Monday 7th October 2024

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The non-farm payrolls data on Friday in the US was a big upside surprise. It means there’s less need for any large cuts by the Fed who will be hoping they will have controlled inflation whilst steering the economy into a soft landing. That’s assuming the rise in jobs doesn’t mean a rise in salary expectations. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks Phil through what it means and why such a strong market response on Friday. Does it have implications for other central banks? Whilst the data might have reduced expectations for faster cuts by the Fed, the BoE’s Huw Pill talked down the market response to Andrew Bailey’s comments in the Guardian. They are in no rush. Unlike the RBNZ, who is widely expected to go for a large cut this week.

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Friday 4th October 2024

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Gold has traditionally been seen as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical uncertainty. Yet, in the last few weeks we’ve seen gold repeatedly hitting new highs, even as inflation recedes. The response to the unrest in the Middle East this week hasn’t had the marked impact you might have expected. Gold has been higher at times when the situation has been more contained. So, what is the driving force behind rising Gold prices? John Reade, senior market strategist at the World Gold Council, says the price has been driven by purchases from emerging markets, many of whom want to rely less on the US dollar. Phil asks if he’s talking about the BRICs nations, who reportedly want to develop their own gold-backed currency. It’s a fascinating discussion about where gold price growth is coming from and how long it will remain elevated.

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Friday 4th October 2024

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Oil has risen sharply this morning after Joe Biden was asked about is support for an Israeli attack, if it was to target Iran’s oil facilities. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says the US President didn’t really answer the question, but it was enough for investors to fear that this was a scenario that could play out. Elsewhere, markets responded to an unexpected jump in the US services ISM, and surprisingly dovish remarks from the BoE governor that’s heightened expectations for more immediate cuts from the Bank of England Without doubt, though, the most significant news is yet to come - the latest US payrolls data, which could reinforce or deflect market expectations for another 50bp cut at an FOMC meeting before Christmas.

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Thursday 3rd October 2024

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Today, Phil talks to NAB’s Ray Attrill about two hawks who seem to have metamorphosed into something a bit more dove-like. First, the ECB’s Isabel Schnabel, who has just about confirmed a rate cut for this month. Secondly, the BoJ’s Governor Ueda who seems to be happy to toe the line of the new Prime Minister. The prospect of no rate hike any time soon, and the questions it raises about the independence of the central bank, has seen the Yen taking a big hit. Looking ahead, the US Services ISM will be the key data piece, whilst we keep a watching brief on developments in the Middle East.

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Wednesday 2nd October 2024

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Markets moved swiftly into classic risk-off territory as Iran started firing missiles into Israeli airspace. Early reports suggest minimal damage and casualties, and markets retreated a little. NAB’s Skye Masters says its often the case with significant geopolitical events that the instant reaction is tempered somewhat as more news emerges. Perhaps a broadening conflict will have a more lasting impact on oil. The news did overshadow the strong JOLTs data in the US, which showed more job openings. Australia’s retail sales numbers were also stronger than expected, but it is just one survey and the ABS says warmer weather in August is partially responsible. Meanwhile BNZ has revised its forecasts for rate cuts by the RBNZ, predicting two 50bp cuts before Christmas. The US Vice Presidential debate Is on today, late morning Australia time.

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Tuesday 1st October 2024

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Some of the biggest moves yesterday were hardly surprises. The sharp rise in Chinese equities and the fall in Japan. On China, NAB’s Gavin Friend wonders whether markets are too optimistic and whether there’s a pushing on a string element to some of the reforms there. US equities finished higher, having spent much of the session in the red, whilst there were further moves up in bond yields. Gain says there’s some commentary on Jerome Powell winding back on rate cut expectations, when really he was simply reiterating the need to wait and see the dat. That data starts today, with the JOLTs job opening numbers in the US. Australian retail sales will be watched keenly today and survey data for New Zealand could held determine whether the RBNZ goes for a 25bp or 50bpcut next week. Also, NAB has moved forward its forecasts of when the RBA will cut. Listen in for the latest prediction.

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Monday 30th September 2024

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What impact will attacks in the Middle East have on markets now? Israel is working hard to neutralise Hezbollah and other Iranian proxy combatants, with attacks on Lebanon and Yemen. It’s the first question Phil put to NAB’s Tapas Strickland on this morning’s podcast. We know there will be a strong response to the election of Japan’s new LDP, with Shigeru Ishiba becoming the new Prime Minister from Tuesday. But what does it mean for the Bank of Japan? They also discuss the latest US PCE data and why markets are expecting a faster rate of cuts than the Fed, as well as looking ahead to European inflation data, Australian deposits and retails ales and US non-farm payrolls at the end of a fairly busy week.

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Friday 27th September 2024

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ETFs – exchange traded funds – are becoming increasingly popular. So who is buying them? What are they buying? Phil is joined by Chamath de Silva, Head of Fixed Income at Betashares, where he manages their fixed income ETFs portfolio. They talk about the growth in ETFs and what it’s doing to flows. For example, is it driving more investors in search of overseas assets? Also, the range of asset classes covered, and the growth of active funds. And what does it mean for the future of investment advisors and fund managers?

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Friday 27th September 2024

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China is set to issue a lot of bonds to fire the long-awaited Bazooka. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to discuss the market reaction to the speculation that China is, at long last, ready to push ahead with a very sizeable fiscal stimulus. Oil behaved the opposite to what you’d expect from the news, driven by expectations of increased supply from Saudi Arabia and Libya. There’s a lot of European data to absorb today, which could paint a picture f what the ECB will do next. Their next meeting is an each way bet at the moment. Finally, Ray explains why the LDP leadership vote in Japan today could be market moving,

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Thursday 26th September 2024

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The slight risk-on mood we saw after news of potential further stimulus measures in China has ebbed away a little today, particularly in the share market, where indices are generally lower in the US and Europe overnight. NAB’s Ken Crompton says there’s a bit of a reassessment during a session low on data. Expectations for an outside cut by the Fed have fallen slightly on the back of one large individual trade. The Riksbank, though, is confidently cutting rates, suggesting they’ll keep going until they reach their neutral rate, once they’ve decided what that is. Given the focus lately is on watching jobs, Australia’s job vacancies and US jobless claims will prove interesting today. And a night when too many Fed speakers is barely enough.

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