NAB Morning Call

Wednesday 25th September 2024

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There is still some uncertainty about the future direction of US policy, with the Fed’s Michelle Bowman still concerned about a potential return of inflation, whilst most other Fed members are worried about a downturn in employment having a broader impact on the economy. NAB’s Skye Masters says the diversity of opinion is being driven by mixed data, the sharp slowdown in the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Report being the latest example. But there is a slight risk-on mood today, driven by hopes that China will offer a comprehensive package to kick start their economy. Meanwhile, the RBA kept rates on hold as expected, and weakness in European PMIs yesterday has heightened expectations for two more cuts by the ECB this year.

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Tuesday 24th September 2024

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 Monday’s global PMIs were universally disappointing, but the downward trajectory was most pronounced in Europe and, in particularly Germany. It’s created a mixed story in bond movements today, even though equities have fared well. NAB’s Tapas Strickland describes how markets are seeing the relative positions of the US and Europe right now. Today the RBA announces its rate decision, with widespread agreement that they will keep rates on hold. But how long for? And is China about to go for broke on their 5% growth target?

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Monday 23rd September 2024

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There were surprisingly small moves in bond yields on Friday, whilst investors in shares seemed to be momentarily reassessing their optimism after the 50bp cut from the Fed. Nonetheless, two more cuts are assumed this year, with a rising expectation that there will be another big cut before Christmas, assisted by comments from the Fed’s Waller who suggested that inflation is falling faster than expected. The standout move in currencies was the Japanese Yen responding to push-back on the expected timing of the next rate rise by the BoJ’s Governor Ueda. Today, global PMIs are released, giving the latest snapshot on the relative strength of Germany versus the rest of Europe versus the US.

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Friday 20th September 2024

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From Super funds to family trusts, John Coombe, Executive Director at JANA, has been providing investment advice for well over three decades. He is one of Australia’s most highly regarded asset managers. So, what’s the secret to his success? Part of the answer, he says, is listening to a client’s needs. The other element is to do with timing. What else? Phil teases out more from John as they take a whistle stop tour around the globe, through various asset classes and the influence of everything from central banks, to governments, to how companies treat investors. It’s an entertaining half an hour that will demonstrate the other reason for John’s success – his understanding of how the world is connected and constantly changing.

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Friday 20th September 2024

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Equity markets have responded positively to the mega-cut from the Fed yesterday, whist the Bank of England plays it cool, keeping rates on hold yesterday. Andrew Bailey said they should be able to reduce rates gradually over time, without giving any clear signal on how gradual or how much time. The Bank of Japan is expected to keep rates on hold, but with CPI expected to rise today NAB’s Rodrigo Catril wonders how long they’ve be able to maintain that policy position. He also discusses with Phil yesterday’s employment numbers from Australia and New Zealand’s GDP numbers which, although slightly better than expected, still show an economy in trouble.

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Thursday 19th September 2024

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Perhaps not surprisingly the Fed opted for the 50bp cut. Markets responded sharply, but then rowed back shortly afterwards as Jerome Powell tried to downplay the significance of the move at the press conference that followed, saying this wasn’t a new pace just a recalibration of policy. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to decipher the language, the revised forecasts and the market response. Next, it’s the BoE, unlikely to move, particularly after a slightly hotter than expected inflation print. Plus, Australian employment numbers and NZ GDP today. 

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Wednesday 18th September 2024

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There have been no surprises in US economic data overnight. Retail sales, industrial production and manufacturing weren’t far off expectations. So, do they all point to a soft landing? And if that’s the scenario, why would the Fed delay a big rate cut? It’s a question Phil puts to NAB’s Ken Crompton, less than 24 hours from the FOMC decision, which includes revised forecasts and a new dot plot. There’s also the question as to whether the Bank of Canada will move to a faster cutting schedule, given CPI actually showed deflation last month. UK CPI is the main figure today – in particular the sticky services inflation. And, could the ECB be forced to cut rates faster in face of a slowing economy, with the latest ZEW survey for Germany showing confidence has plummeted as hopes of a recovery subside. 

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Tuesday 17th September 2024

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Market pricing moved further in favour of a 50bpcut from the fed this week. Does that mean the Fed, who are expected to make at least one big cut before Christmas, side with the market? It makes it easier for them to walk through an open door, says JBWere’s Sally Auld on this morning’s podcast. There’s also discussion about Paul Krugman’s tweets overnight, suggesting that a data dependent Fed risks becoming Milton Friedman’s fool in the shower — the guy who alternately freezing and scalding himself because he’s too data-dependent. Canada’s CPI print is the only major data release of the day. What does it mean for the BoC, and how long do they stay in the shower for before they leave those taps alone?

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Monday 16th September 2024

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Big or small, that’s the question this week. Will the Fed go for a 50bp cut? If the plan is to do that at some point this year, why not now? That’s one of the arguments being touted, which Phil discusses with NAB’s Ray Attrill. Certainly, equity markets seem to be expecting a larger cut, with the Russell 2000 showing particularly strong growth on Friday. Meanwhile softer activity data from China suggests they are sliding further away from their 5% growth target, but there’s no indication of when the Politburo will implement new policies beyond the remit of the PBoC.  

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Friday 13th September 2024

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The Labour Market Report is one of the most eagerly awaited monthly releases from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. It’s even more crucial at times like now, when it is so influential on central bank policy. But in many countries gathering this data is proving difficult. People are less prepared to participate, and gathering reliable information is becoming more costly. That’s not been an issue in Australia, according to Bjorn Jarvis, the ABS’s Head of Labour Statistics. He says the Australian population is generally very civic minded. That makes things easier. In this half hour Weekend edition Phil talks to Bjorn about how the data is collected and analysed and what trends have surprised him over recent years.

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