NAB Morning Call

Monday 2nd September 2024

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European inflation is now at its lowest level in three years, whilst shares hit an all-time high. That’s cemented in the probability of a cut by the ECB this month. Expectations for cuts by the Fed haven’t moved any higher, as the Core PCE inflation read on Friday was in-line with expectations. But the fact that other central banks are cutting doesn’t mean the RBA will. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks about what the RBA’s Andrew Hauser had to say on this during a podcast from Friday. Today is a quiet start to a busy week, with the US on holiday today, leading to non-farm payrolls on Friday.

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Friday 16th August 2024

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Despite all the fears of a major slowdown, Australian shares have continued to rise and the latest results season has provided stronger than expected earnings. nabtrade’s Gemma Dale says the underlying strength in the economy, which is providing the RBA with no motive to drop rates in a hurry, is being reflected in healthy sales revenue and profits. The historic safe choices (ie mining and financials), continue to perform, even though the questions are always asked – have we reached peak iron ore, have we reached peak bank? And what of the growth in ETFs. Are they becoming more dominant and are they being used primarily as a vehicle to invest in overseas assets?

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Friday 30th August 2024

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Two surprises from the US. First, a 100 percent growth from NVIDIA wasn’t enough for investors, who obviously expected more. So, even though their results were considered a beat, their share price is still well down. The other surprise was the sharp upward revision in US spending. Personal spending was revised up from 2.3% to 2.9%. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril picks through the numbers. And should we be worried about the fall in Australian Capex spending yesterday? It’s a busy day ahead today, with European CPI, Australian retail sales and Canada’s GDP. 

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Thursday 29th August 2024

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Equity markets were preoccupied with NVIDIA earnings for much of the week, finishing the session with unwarranted pessimism. As it turns out, earnings beat expectations and forecasts for the next quarter are also above the street’s estimates. As a result, the share price switched from a 2.5% drop at close to a 0.5% gain immediately after the earnings announcement. We wait to see what the broader ramifications are. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says it’s a bellwether for how well AI is doing. We also look at yesterday’s Australian CPI from yesterday and look ahead to European inflation numbers, out today and tomorrow.

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Wednesday 28th August 2024

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Australia’s latest monthly inflation number is out today. Phil asks NAB’s Skye Masters what’s expected and how pivotal will it be to the RBA, given they seem intent to keep rates on hold until next year. This time tomorrow NVIDIA releases its Q2 earnings, possibly the most significant event in a week devoid of large data releases. Which is why Phil and Skye resort to picking the bones out of a number of second tier releases from the US and Europe from yesterday and overnight. But every number counts.

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Tuesday 27th August 2024

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There hasn’t been a lot of market movement overnight. What there was saw a slight reversal on positions taken after Powell’s talk at Jackson Hole. Hence, the dollar is back up a little, shares have fallen, and bond yields are up slightly too. It’s lighter trading, of course, at the height of the northern summer and only second tier data to keep us occupied. That’s why NVIDIA’s earnings results on Wednesday (US time) could have an outsized influence on shares. Oil is sharply higher today, because of Libyan politics rather than tensions between Hezbollah and israel. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to discuss the day’s market news.

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Monday 26th August 2024

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Even though Fed speakers positioned markets to expect gradual and methodical cuts late last week, it was a very different language used by Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole on Friday. NAB’s Tapas Strickland joins Phil to discuss what was said and how market reacted. It’s clear a September cut is coming, with the Fed chair declaring that “the time has come for policy to adjust”, with a focus more on easing in the jobs market than the fears of a reprise in inflation. They also look ahead to a fairly busy week for data, including CPI and retail sales in Australia. 

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Friday 16th August 2024

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On the face of it you’d wonder why central banks in New Zealand and Australia have taken such different paths when it comes to fighting inflation. They are both western economies that were growing reasonably well before the pandemic. Their response in 2020 was similar, with massive fiscal injections and quite severe lockdowns. So, why such a radical difference in the response to inflation post-pandemic? The RBNZ is rapidly cutting rates, whilst the RBA is unlikely to start until next year.

Stephen Toplis, Head of research at BNZ Markets in Wellington, says the economies are not the same. Even before the pandemic New Zealand was suffering with labour shortages, pushing wages higher. Now the economy has seen a more significant slowing, in part due to their higher level of rates. As Gareth Spence points out, NAB’s Head of Australian Economics, there is certainly an adjustment going on in Australia, but overall the economy and labour market have been resilient.

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Friday 23rd August 2024

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Bond yields are higher, the dollar has fallen and US equities are lower. Markets have switched direction over the last 24 hours. NAB’s Ray Attrill says there are three reasons for the reversal – the latest PMI data, central bank speak and expectations for the outcome of the US election. The rhetoric from Fed speakers has been around a more gradual approach to rate cuts.  It’s also the start of the Jackson Hole Symposium. It’s just like the Oscars for central bankers, without the awards, the glamour or the popular appeal. But, for all the speeches and panel discussions, will anything be said that’s not already known or assumed?

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Thursday 22nd August 2024

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Today as the US dollar weakens again, against a rising Yen, Phil asks JBWere’s Sally Auld to explain the impact rates differentials are having on the Japanese carry trade. The FOMC minutes this morning came as close as they possibly could to saying a rate cut will happen in September. That’s added to the weakness in the US dollar, and helped equities recover.  They also look at the price of oil, which Sally says is reaching a point where it represents better value for investors. Global PMIs are the focus, along with th weekly jobless claims. A downward revision to the non-farm payrolls overnight was quite marked, but Sally explains why markets didn’t react toit as much as you might expect.

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