New Politics: Australian Politics, News, Analysis & Commentary

In this episode: rebooting the National Disability Insurance Scheme; the build-up to the federal Budget; and the latest opinion polls – good news for the Prime Minister; bad news for the Opposition leader.

There’s been a build-up to the Budget which will be announced on 9 May, it’s at the final stages of development and still working out what will be palatable at this point of the political cycle, and what’s in the interests of the Australian community and the economy.

There’s a wide range of budget issues coming into focus – the cost of the AUKUS deal with the United States and Britain; the amount allocated towards social housing; and there’s also the debate about whether the Stage 3 tax cuts should proceed, even though they won’t commence until 1 July 2024 – there’s also the cost of Medicare and raising the rate of Jobseeker payments – a standard ‘bread and butter’ Labor issue that many in the community are finding it difficult to understand why the government is being so recalcitrant about.

The focus of attention of the week has been on the NDIS, which Bill Shorten promises to reboot and reform after the previous Coalition government mismanaged the program during its term in office. It is a costly program, but it’s an essential program – but the Budget announcement will confirm if the dollars are going to be matched up with the rhetoric.

There are new opinion polls, and they provide bad news for Peter Dutton, and good news for the Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese. Sometimes, a prime minister can be made to look good because of a weak opposition leader – but the flipside is that an Opposition can be made to look even worse because of a competent government – in this case, it’s probably a combination of the two – but despite all attempts by the mainstream media to boost his stocks, the polling for Dutton has reached his lowest level, and it just keeps getting worse and worse for the Liberal Party.

In this episode, another resignation in the Liberal Party, and are there more to follow? And the cost blowout in the Inland Rail Project is yet another example of why Barnaby Joyce should leave politics.

After a short and sustained period of criticism about his role in the Liberal Party's leadership ‘no’ vote for the Voice to Parliament. Julian Leeser has resigned from Shadow Cabinet and has now said that he will campaign for the ‘yes’ case. This will place more pressure on the leadership of Peter Dutton and add to the debate about the future of the Liberal Party. But Lesser said he wants to make amendments to what has already been proposed in the referendum; he also didn’t end up repudiating any of Dutton's claims that the Voice to Parliament will end up costing billions of dollars to implement and it will grind the government to a halt, so it’s difficult to discern – at this stage – what Leeser’s true motivations are.

When he became the leader of the Liberal Party, Dutton said his job after the 2022 federal election loss was “to unite the Liberal Party”, but with MPs resigning from Shadow Cabinet, former Liberal Party MPs resigning from the party, and backbenchers speaking out, it’s far from a united party and it’s a political mess that keeps being pulled down by internal conservative forces.

It was also revealed during the week that the cost of the Inland Rail Project has doubled within two years and has increased from $16 billion, up to $31 billion. The Inland Rail Project commenced in 2018 and is proposed to operate between Brisbane and Melbourne and was one of Barnaby Joyce’s pet projects when he was the deputy prime minister and the Minister for Infrastructure and Regional Development. There were also claims that he was trying to fasts-track this Inland Rail Project and change the path of the project so it would run closer to the land that he owns near Narrabri – 1,000 hectares of land, which no one in their right mind would buy unless they knew of a future government project that was in development. Where there’s corruption – or alleged corruption – Joyce is never too far behind, and his time in politics should be close to an end.

In this episode: the result of the Aston byelection – was it a big Labor victory or a bad loss for the Liberal Party?… and celebrating the life of Yunupingu: he was a great man of Australian political life. The work on the Voice to Parliament will continue, despite the best efforts of the small men of the Liberal and National parties to derail it.

The Aston byelection resulted in either a big win for the Labor Party or a big loss for the Liberal Party, depending on which perspective people wish to choose. Most of the analysis during the week has been on what went wrong for the Liberal Party, but the focus should be on what the Labor Party did right to win the seat. Byelections have many political issues that can be read into them – most of this analysis tends to be wrong – but the result in Aston seems like it’s an accurate reflection on what’s happening in federal politics at the moment: good news for the Labor government; bad news for the Liberal Party.

Yunupingu died during the week, campaigner for Indigenous land rights for most of his life. He first came to prominence with the Gove Land Rights case in 1971, which gave rise to the Woodward Royal Commission, the Aboriginal Land Rights Act, which in turn gave rise to the Mabo decision in 1992. Yunupingu was a highly respected member of the Australian community. His legacy on reconciliation, treaty, Voice to Parliament, land rights: he created the signposts for the where Australia needs to go on these issues – there’s still some way to go on this – but Australia will finally get there, despite offensive opportunism of Peter Dutton and the Liberal–National Coalition: the small men of Australian politics.

In this episode: a wrap up of the New South Wales election from last weekend, with the NSW Coalition ending their 12 years in office and the start of a NSW Labor government; the case against whistleblower Richard Boyle continues, but it needs to stop; the federal government social housing policy has stalled in Parliament; a new inquiry into the Freedom of Information system; and predictions for what might happen in the Aston byelection.

There was a change of government in New South Wales last weekend and of the nine jurisdictions across Australia, there's only one Liberal Party government. Former Prime Minister John Howard suggested it's just a matter of time before the Liberal Party returns as a political force, but there are some very big long-term problems for the party, and not just in New South Wales.

The case against whistleblower Richard Boyle is proceeding after the judge in the case decided that he's not immune from prosecution and the case should now proceed. The Labor government promised to clean up the whistleblower legislation and they still haven't done that. The Attorney–General Mark Dreyfus needs to act now and stop this case from going ahead any further.

The Labor government’s social housing policy is on the backburner – it’s only 30,000 properties across Australia, it’s not enough and the Greens cannot support it. Jim Chalmers did suggest that it would offer a boost to the economy as well as address a serious housing supply issue but it doesn't look like it's going to be the panacea that he suggested. And this is the time to do this properly.

The Australian Greens, the crossbench and the Coalition have created an inquiry into the Freedom of Information system – the Coalition virtually destroyed when they were in office and it’s a system that does need to be cleaned up.

The Aston byelection on Saturday could be Peter Dutton’s last stand. Historically, it's a seat the Liberal Party should hold – they’ve held it for over 30 years. But when you look at much of the evidence at the moment, it's also a seat that Labor should win. There's a 2.8 per cent margin, the Liberal Party in Victoria is in disarray. And it's not looking very good for the Liberal Party who might be looking for a new leader after Saturday night.

In this episode: the week in federal politics; the AUKUS deal; the Voice to Parliament; and the safeguard mechanism for emissions control. The anti-trans agitators and Nazis getting an unwelcome reception all across Australia. And a final look at the New South Wales State election.

Federal Parliament returned this week: There were the remnants of the AUKUS debate from last week, where after the complete support provider to the deal by the media, there have been more voices calling for more scrutiny on AUKUS, how much it's going to cost and what it actually means. And this is on the 20th anniversary of the invasion of Iraq, which was based on weapons of mass destruction that were never found. The lesson is: on national security, never believe what the government is telling the public and it’s best to get a second opinion.

Neo-Nazis had been causing trouble again and this time it was the Nationalist Socialist Network who teamed up with the anti-trans rally organised by Moira Deeming, and Kellie Jay Keen-Minshull, who also goes by the name of “Posie Parker”. “Posie Parker” is a repulsive person and after mixing with the neo-Nazis in Melbourne, she went down to Hobart to organise another rally but was quickly shut down and hounded out of Tasmania. There’s no place for this kind of bigotry.

Election day in New South Wales election and it hasn't captured the imagination of the public – and who is to blame for this is hard to say, whether it's the inane coverage by the media or whether it's because of the relative performances of the two main sides of politics. NSW Labor does have to win 11 additional seats to win a majority government – the Liberal–National Coalition is governing in a minority position and has to win two seats to form a majority. That's unlikely to happen. The more likely outcome is a Labor government in a minority position, but with a good chance of winning a majority. The NSW Government does deserve to be dismissed but it might also be a case where NSW Labor hasn't done enough to convince the electorate that it needs to be returned to office.

In this episode, we look at the AUKUS deal and what it means for Australia. It looks like it’s a bad deal, so why did Albanese agree to it? It’s complicated.

Paul Keating also attacked this AUKUS deal – and we things he’s right – but instead of looking at the merit of what he had to say, the mainstream media decided that Keating was impolite to journalists. So, he can’t be taken seriously. Wow, these journalists are so upper-class, they don’t know what’s good for them: let them eat cake and we say – all the way with PJK.

And we've been asked the question: why did the mainstream media avoid the Robodebt Royal Commission? Again, the answer to this is complex: dwindling advertising revenues, news editors and journalists who come from the upper echelons of society, so receiving a social security payment – or being forced to pay it back – is a totally foreign experience for them. That’s the long-term effect of journalism courses around Australia becoming stacked with graduates from private schools.

And more corruption in New South Wales, this time there’s a recording of former NSW National Party leader John Barilaro bragging about his pork-barrelling adventures back in 2021. If only there was a decent mainstream media that has the courage to reveal these details on the eve of a NSW state election instead of delivering silence. If only…

In this episode… we look at the week in federal politics: the Liberal Party is in contortions over a tatty flag on top of Australian Parliament House (the important things) and wants to repeal the government’s popular superannuation tax – in the unlikely event it returns to government in the near future.

Malcolm Turnbull appears at the Robodebt Royal Commission – with the same level of collective amnesia which afflicted many other witnesses – and there are also calls for Katherine Campbell to be sacked from the public service.

A call for the takeover of Liberal Party branches by right-wing Christian groups needs to be resisted, otherwise that will be the end of the party.

International Women’s Day didn’t have the dramas from the time of Scott Morrison, and we should be thankful for that.

And is Dutton really facing a #Libspill? It’s in the interests of the Liberal Party to keep him there as a placeholder, but who’s next?

The New South Wales Independent Commission Against Corruption finds that corrupt behaviour in New South Wales is not actually corrupt. John Barilaro landed the trade job that he created while he was a Minister in NSW Parliament, and wasn’t qualified for. But the ICAC ruled that it wasn’t corruption. And, by the way, where is the report into alleged corruptions by Gladys Berejiklian?

And we are going to war with China in three years’ time, so we’ll need to order our military fatigues and start practising our commando techniques. According to the Sydney Morning Herald, of course – this would have to be among the more irresponsible and foolish journalism of recent years. And it’s racist as well. So, put the guns away, return the fatigues to sender: there will be not war with China.

It’s all a media beat-up.

Superannuation is a boring topic of conversation at the best of times, but the government can see that it can save a substantial sum of money by closing off a loophole and has introduced a higher level of tax on superannuation accounts holding over $3 million. And the opposition can see an opportunity to claim that the Prime Minister has broken an election promise. The Liberal Party does have this great skill in being able to magnify the small issues into large scale calamities. There have been some comparisons made with the franking credits campaign from 2019, where they made everyone believe that they were going to lose their franking credits, even for those people who didn't own shares. But it's hard to mount these types of scare campaigns when you're in opposition and the Labor government should probably cut the superannuation benefits even further.

The Attorney–General Mark Dreyfus has met with news agencies and media unions to discuss national secrecy laws and improve protections and press freedoms for journalists and people working in news gathering and political reporting. These are important issues, but it's difficult to talk about press freedoms when Julian Assange is still languishing in a British jail – or the fact that Australia's has the least diverse media landscape in the Western world. It would be better for the government to focus on media ownership laws and create a stronger and enforceable code of conduct for the media.

The Robodebt Royal Commission continues and the role of the former Government Services Minister, Stuart Robert, has been in the spotlight. The Minister was informed by the Secretary of Human Services that the Robodebt scheme was unlawful, which he ignored and said that he would “double down” on the scheme. Officials within the department who supported the Minister's agenda were rewarded, and the others who provided negative advice were punished. It’s one of the biggest scandals to hit Australian politics but, curiously, the mainstream media hasn’t had the stamina to report on this Commission.

It’s one year since Russia invaded Ukraine – it was only meant to last a few days, but it's still going on and unlikely to stop for some time to come. War is an extension of politics by another means and this one is likely to continue until both sides are exhausted and realise there's no point in going on. Russia is still the big loser here and Vladimir Putin’s quest to rework European geopolitics hasn't paid off so far. But the bigger issue is that so many people have died – up to 300,000 people on both sides – with around six million people displaced. And, as with most wars, it's not the political leaders who are paying the price: it's the innocent civilians and soldiers.

The Australian Federal Police is in the news again, and this time it’s through a newspaper interview with the former Defence Minister, Senator Linda Reynolds – and this relates to the allegations of a rape that occurred in Parliament House in 2019, just a few weeks before the federal election was announced.

And, somehow, the personal diaries of Brittany Higgins were leaked to News Corporation and formed a large part of the story about Linda Reynolds – the diaries were provided to the federal police to assist with the Bruce Luhrmann court trial – but here they are being published in a News Corporation newspaper.

There’s currently an ACT government investigation into the behaviour of the police and the trial of Bruce Luhrmann – a trial that was aborted – but the leaking of this private material to News Corporation is another issue that needs to be investigated, as is the role of the Australian Federal Police.

There is an election coming up in NSW next month, and there’s been a raft of resignations in recent times and this follows on from other resignations over the past year – Gladys Berijiklian as well – and there’s other ministers who won’t be contesting at the next election. This is the sorry sight of politics in NSW – it doesn’t really matter who’s in office, corruption and mismanagement is always close by – and this really has the feeling of the last days of a dying government in NSW.

Sometimes a political culture grows from bad beginnings – NSW was founded as an illegal settlement all the way back in 1788, and then there was the Rum Corp that ran for about 30 years or so – and once a poor political culture becomes established, it’s very hard to shake off, even after 235 years.
There’s also been a batch of recent opinion polls and all of them are suggesting a dip in support for the Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese, and a slight improvement of support for the Opposition Leader, Peter Dutton – and as a result, we’ve had the predictable headlines of ‘the end of the honeymoon for Albanese’.

Most of this noise is media amplifying the issues that they want the public to believe in, but there’s still a great deal of support for the Labor government. This will start to wear off, especially when the Labor government does things like approve 116 coal seam gas wells in Queensland and still sticks with supporting the Stage 3 tax cuts – but this is the time they really need to start performing and stick to the agenda they took to the Australian public at the last federal election.

There was another session of Parliament this week and we found out that the federal government has spent $7.6 million to prosecute whistleblowers – while most of that was expended by the previous Coalition government and although the Labor government did drop the cases against Bernard Collaery and Witness K – the cases against David McBride and Richard Boyle are still continuing and they need to stop.

The highlight of the week was the commemoration of the 15th anniversary of the National apology to the Stolen Generations. But the apology that has sucked all the attention is the one from Peter Dutton, who now says he didn't understand the significance of the apology to the Stolen Generations in 2008. If Peter Dutton is truly sorry for his actions from 2008, he’d backtrack on his opposition to the Voice to Parliament and he’d stop opposing for the sake of opposing. We don’t want to hear another apology from Peter Dutton in another 15 years’ time, for not understanding the significance of the occasion – it will be far too late for that. He needs to understand the significance of the occasion right now.

There will be a byelection in the Melbourne seat of Aston caused by the resignation of former minister Alan Tudge, and it's been labeled as a big test for Peter Dutton. But it's also a big test for Anthony Albanese and the federal government. There can be endless opinion polls and speculation about public sentiment for the government and for the Opposition, but the real test in politics comes in when real votes are lodged at the ballot box.

Aston hasn't been held by the Labor Party since 1990 and it has been a safe Liberal seat for most of that time since. An incumbent government hasn't won a seat off an Opposition in a byelection since 1921. But the electorate usually votes against the party that caused the by election first place – the Labor government is riding high in the polls and the Liberal–National party isn't. So it's a seat that the Labor Party could win. Equally, it's a seat that the Liberal Party should hold. But in byelections, a lot of political rules get thrown out the window.

Political donations have come under the spotlight with revelations of the Minister for Communications Michelle Rowland receiving two donations from Sportsbet in the lead up to the 2022 federal election. And she was the Opposition spokesperson on online gambling and now as Minister of Communications, she's got responsibility for the Interactive Gambling Act and the Australian Communications and Media Authority.

Sportsbet makes substantial donations to both the Liberal and the Labor parties but this is not a good look, and it's a corruption of the political process: that's one problem. The fact that all of this is legal, is a travesty. Disclosure laws need to change, as well as major reforms to the political donation system.