New Politics: Australian Politics, News, Analysis & Commentary

How many political staffers does it take to change a piece of legislation? Independent MPs have been outraged about the Prime Minister’s decision to reduce the number of political advisers from four down to one – which means they will have a total staff of five – and decided to take their outrage directly to the media.

But what is the correct number? Some MPs could have a staff of 100 and still be quite incompetent: others seem to be effective and efficient with the bare minimum of political staff. And in the previous parliament, Liberal Party staffers were caught having sex in the notorious parliamentary “prayer room: others decided to masturbate on the desk of their box and photograph themselves in the act. Obviously, some staffers have too much time on their hands. Can a compromise be reached? Perhaps two political advisors would make this issue go away but it’s not something that’s resonating with the public.

And is Anthony Albanese spending too much time overseas and not enough on the domestic agenda? The media is making a big deal of it, labelling the Prime Minister as “Airbus Albo” but perhaps if they understood that Tony Abbott, Malcolm Turnbull and Scott Morrison all travelled far more than Albanese in a comparable period, they might keep quiet.

And the Roe v Wade decision from 1973 has been overturned by the US Supreme Court – it was a landmark decision then, and a landmark decision now to overturn a precedent that has directed abortion law reform all around the world. Will this decision influence Australian politics at all? It’s unlikely: according to opinions polls, 81% of people in Australia support the right for women to freely access abortion services. But 61% of people in the US are also supportive, yet Roe v Wade has been overturned. It shows that women’s rights and human rights always need to be fought hard for, not only to achieve them, but maintain them.

Senator Hollie Hughes has made the claim that the Liberal Party lost the “youth vote” at the 2022 election because of “Marxist teachers” who, apparently, have infiltrated Australian society. What senators such as Hollie Hughes always fail to answer is if Marxist teachers, socialists and unions have caused so much mayhem, why has the Liberal–National Coalition held government for 20 of the past 26 years? It’s an intellectual paucity that has no boundaries.

The Australian Greens have had their most successful election campaign ever – four seats in the House of Representatives, 12 Senators and 12.25% of the primary vote all across Australia. These are excellent figures and a promising result for progressive politics.

But how well will they be able to work with the new Labor Government? To pass their legislation, Labor will need the support of these 12 Greens Senators – and one other, likely to be independent Senator David Pocock – but what will Labor need to give up to get the support of the Greens, and how will the Greens compromise their agendas to get the approval of Labor?

Around 80 per cent of Greens preferences flow to the Labor Party, and these preferences are critical for Labor in the House of Representatives. And what do the Greens receive in support? Public animosity, if the comments from National Secretary Paul Erickson are any guide, when he suggested the Greens spend most of their time criticising Labor achievements and downplaying their progressive credentials.

It would be better if the negotiations between Labor and the Greens are fruitful and result in outcomes in the public interest. Each party needs to maximise their own interests, and push their own agendas, but after nine years of policy paralysis provided by the Liberal–National Coalition government between 2013 and 2022, it’s essential Labor and the Greens resolve their differences and provide the community with government that acts in their interest.

The 2022 federal election is well and truly over, but the new Leader of the Opposition, Peter Dutton, wants to fight this election all over again: climate wars, culture wars, blame games and asserting that he didn’t see a need to change very much of what the Coalition offered at this recent election. The former British Prime Minister, Margaret Thatcher, did once say “the lady’s not for turning”, but that was Thatcher, and Peter Dutton ain’t no Margaret Thatcher.

It’s an odd position for a new leader to adopt, especially after a thumping election loss, where the issues the Coalition presented to the electorate were comprehensively rejected. But perhaps the man’s not for turning, and is prepared to suffer the political consequences for his lack of action.

And the state of NSW always has difficulty shedding its reputation as the ‘state of corruption’, this time, it’s the former Deputy Premier, John Barilaro, who’s taken up a trade commissioner position to the United States, a position he created while he was in the NSW Government. The position had been offered to another more highly credentialed person, but then Barilaro resigned from politics in October 2021, the offer to the other more highly credentialed person was rescinded and – can you believe it – eight months later, Barilaro is offered the $500,000 job.

Yes, it is unbelievable, but this is New South Wales, where anything goes. We have a feeling the NSW ICAC might be busy with a new investigation, and it could take some time to unravel what actually took place. And, it has the potential to bring down yet another NSW Premier, Dominic Perrottet.

The biggest war is not the one in Ukraine – there are no generals in this war, there are no medals to hand out, and it’s possibly a war without end. And, of course, it’s a war that’s been concocted by the mainstream media and the Opposition, mainly to put pressure on the new Labor government. Yes, it’s the energy war, which is a war on public sensibilities and could end up being a war on the credibility of the media.

For nine years, the media barely focused on the failures of the Liberal–National government to formulate an energy policy between 2013–2022 and now they’re shaking their fists at Anthony Albanese for creating not just an energy crisis, but firing the first shots in a fictitious energy war. And it’s not just energy: refugees are arriving by boat! For nine years, these were “on water matters” that couldn’t be reported, but now it’s open slather, with media reports now claiming that people smugglers in Sri Lanka are telling their clients Australia is now very welcoming of boat arrivals.

One area the new Labor government can act upon is Julian Assange: he’s been languishing in a British jail for over three years and Albanese – when he was Leader of the Opposition – did say that he couldn’t see the point of the continuing incarceration of Assange. Well, now he’s the Prime Minister, and now is the time to act. And also cease the prosecution of four whistleblowers in Australia – Jeff Morris, Richard Boyle, David McBride and Bernard Collaery – there’s no point to these prosecutions either, and it’s time to drop these cases.

After each election, all political parties – whether they win or lose – assess where they went right, and where they went wrong. And the National Secretary of the Labor Party, Paul Erickson, has outlined all the reasons for why Labor won the election, and why the Coalition lost – eight key points – and the Coalition would be wise to listen in and take on these points. Free advice is probably the best advice.

And is Scott Morrison the worst Prime Minister in Australia’s history? It’s an easy answer: a Prime Minister who won’t be remembered for very much, squandered a massive amount of political capital built up during the pandemic, kept on repeating the same mistakes over and over again – and didn’t learn from any of these mistakes – and then lost an election the Coalition didn’t need to lose and shouldn’t have lost. If only they displayed some level of competence. But they didn’t.

So, yes. An easy choice for the worst Prime Minister. Come on down, Scott Morrison, come on down…

How much can a new government be held responsible for the mistakes of the previous government? And how much time should this new government be given to resolve all of these problems? Easy answer: if it’s an incoming Labor government, they are cause of all these problems from the moment they are elected, and must resolve these problems within, say, three weeks of assuming office.

The rules for the Coalition are different – they can endlessly remain in office, cause as many problems as they like, eschew responsibilities and then shout from the sidelines once they get turfed into Opposition, and demand the Labor Party fix all the problems they caused over an ineffective and inefficient nine year period in government.

And their task is a great deal easier with a mainstream media that is defiantly loyal to the Coalition, and will support any ridiculous statements put out under the new leadership of Peter Dutton. And, true to form, the Liberal and National parties will behave like an opposition, whether they are in government or actually in opposition, and now is their time to shine as an opposition, and long may they stay in this position.

The latest round of inanity is the idea that, somehow, the Labor government is illegitimate because 68 per cent of the electorate didn’t vote for them. This is refering to the 32 per cent primary vote the Labor Party received at the 2022 federal election but – history lesson – elections are not won by the parties with the most primary votes, or even the most preferential votes: it’s the party which wins the most seats out of the 151 seats on offer. It has always been like this and in every democratic system in the world. And, this time around, Labor won 77 seats, which means they can form government.

It’s a pity the Liberal Party doesn’t understand this basic electoral arithmetic.

In the meantime, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is doing what good governments should do: get on with the tasks at hand, including cleaning up the mess from over the past nine years. Already within three weeks, the new Labor government has resolved many of the diplomatic issues in the Pacific island region; created a stronger link with Indonesia; signposted its intentions on Indigenous affairs; released the Murugappan family back into the community.

Of course, this is only a small part of the work of government, but it signals an intention of a new government wanting to get on with the work of government and not waste a moment in office.

The final assessment is in and the Labor Party has won 77 seats, enough to form government in its own right, without needing the support from the crossbench to pass legislation. But is this the best outcome? The number of crossbenchers has risen to 16 and it would be wise for Labor to engage this substantial group of MPs, and keep that buffer between them and the Liberal and National parties, who are languishing behind with 58 seats.

The new Labor Ministry has been finalised and there are 10 women in a Cabinet of 22, and 19 women in the greater Ministry of 41 – eyebrows were raised when Tanya Plibersek was announced as the Minister for Environment, the media quick to claim this was a demotion, but with the environment and climate change issues featuring prominently during the election campaign, isn’t it wise to have your best people in the most difficult cabinet positions?

And the main message from the Prime Minister Albanese to the Labor Caucus? Don’t waste a minute while you’re in government, and focus on the many difficult tasks ahead which, based on the amount of Labor MPs were in office during the Rudd–Gillard years between 2010–13, must be a reference to the division and Labor naval gazing which ultimately threw away hard-earned government, and gave it to an inept Liberal–National government for nine long years.

And if Labor shows the competence that has been so lacking during the past nine years of Coalition rule, it should be office for some time into the future – governments since 1932 have been rewarded with a second term but, of course, it’s hard to predict what the future holds, and the issues that overcome the Coalition, could easily afflict Labor in government, if they’re not careful enough and diligent enough to focus on the important issues that affect people’s lives.

But when stumped for a response, it’s always best to channel Billy Bragg. Albanese continued his cultural references from his youth to provide guidance, this time a quote from “To Have and To Have Not”: ‘Just because you’re going forwards, doesn’t mean I’m going backwards”. Keep the red flag flying comrade, this is socialism of the heart.

The Liberal Party has new leadership – Peter Dutton and Sussan Ley – but it’s an unspectacular duo and seems more like a collection of placeholders and seat warmers, rather than the people who can provide a vision and dynamic for an election winning formula in 2025 and beyond. Newly installed leaders just after an election loss rarely survive by the time of the next election, although the current Prime Minister – Anthony Albanese – is the only one to have survived and gone on to win their first election as leader.

So, it can be done, but will it? Dutton wants to be seen as a renaissance man, but he’s a clear link between the Howard, Abbott and Morrison eras, and the electorate just voted out that style of government. It will be a long road back into office for the Liberal Party and it’s best that they use this time wisely and embark on the reform that they’ve neglected for at least the past 15 years.

And if new leadership is good enough for the Liberal Party, it’s good enough for the National Party, who have chosen David Littleproud as their new leader, dumping Barnaby Joyce, who returned to the leadership in early 2021 for reasons which might be only apparent to himself.

The 2022 federal election turned out to be one of the interesting and exciting results in Australian history. Not that you’d get an understanding of this while watching any of the mainstream media coverage on election night: their presentation and analysis of the result was as abysmal as their campaign coverage and, as soon as it became obvious their favoured political team was not going to win – far from it – it was time to start picking holes at Labor and what went wrong for Anthony Albanese. Even though Labor was the victor and Albanese had become Australia’s 31st Prime Minister.

Early on in the evening, it appeared Scott Morrison might be on track for a repeat of his 2019 victory, but as the night moved on, the Coalition was nowhere within reach of government, or even being able to cobble up an arrangement with the expanded crossbench to reach that magical number of 76 seats.

This is the largest ever crossbench ever in federal politics and while it might not be a strong endorsement of the new Labor government, it’s an excellent result for progressive politics: a government that is prepared to make progress on Indigenous recognition, end the climate change wars, create an anti-corruption commission, clean up politics, improve women’s safety; and a mainly progressive crossbench that will create a buffer between this Labor government and the Coalition opposition.

Already, the Coalition is reaching for a continuation of link with the Howard government through the likely appointment of Peter Dutton as the leader of the Liberal Party – therefore, becoming the leader of the opposition – when the electorate had just voted for a break from this style of conservative government and towards a new style of politics that works in the interests of people, and not against them.

This election result is a clear demarcation point between the divisive and destructive politics of the Liberal–National government over the past nine years. Everything must change, and the electorate has voted for change.

And so, it has come to this. The day of the 2022 federal election. Week 6 of the campaign wasn’t that different to the previous five weeks: an array of announcements from both sides of politics, a campaign launch from the Liberal–National Coalition – held in the final week so they could maximise their funding from the public coffers before they had to start paying for the campaign themselves – and a clamour from the media about Labor Party policy costings, ‘gotchas’ and the screams of “how ya gonna pay for that?”

Before we can talk about winners and losers from this campaign, the biggest losers – by far – have been the mainstream media, and it’s almost like their swansong as far as their influence in political affairs is concerned. Labor’s additional costings were calculated at $7.4 billion – seemingly a small amount compared to the $1,000 billion of national government debt accumulated by the federal government – and while everyone wanted to know how on earth Labor was going to “pay for this”, no one seemed to be too concerned about a $5.5 billion fee for the cancelled French submarines project – for absolutely nothing in return. The media needs to be reformed in Australia, but how will this happen?

And many analysts are reluctant to announce who they believe will win the election – still suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder, after the 2019 election result proved everyone wrong, including opinion pollsters.

We have no fear though, and our fearless prediction is Labor should win this election – or at least be in a position to form a minority government with key independents. The polls are all pointing to a Labor victory – as they did in 2019 –but, aside from this, we need to look at the evidence. This has been a corrupt, inept and incompetent government, if not for the entire duration of Coalition rule since 2013, at least in this term of office (again, this is also what was said in 2019).

And if another Coalition victory does come to fruition, we may as well throw away the keys to democracy: if Labor cannot win an election after this display of corruption, mismanagement, division and disorganisation from the federal government, there’s no point in holding elections any more.

That’s how important this election is.

Scott Morrison must now be rueing his decision to embark on a six-week election campaign, and it appears the longer it continues, the worse his position has become. Week five of the campaign commenced with a leader’s debate which closely resembled a combination of a rugby scrum and an all-out brawl, before the sands of time put an end to proceedings, leaving the public no wiser as to who was the better performer.

This was Nine Media’s version of a leaders’ debate, and a semblance of normality returned when Seven West Media hosted the final debate: at least the studio audience was able to adequately assess the performances of the two leaders and recorded a decisive victory to Anthony Albanese – 50%, to Morrison’s 34%.

But the election is not going to won by undecided voters housed in the studios of Australia’s media moguls, and Morrison decided his best bet is to channel Donald Trump and attack lawyers, barristers – any elites will do – and push out the message that he is ‘one of the people’. Not any type of people though, but those who reside in the realms of bogan land, because it appears Morrison believes these are the people that offer him the narrowest pathway to victory: the snarlers, the anti-vaxx crowd, the disaffected, the people who believe the whole world is against them. These are not the “quiet Australians” who supposedly delivered victory to Morrison at the 2019 election, but the rowdy ones who hate everyone and everything.

However, it’s far too late. According to all published opinion polls, the Coalition is on track to record a massive election loss – thoroughly deserved – but the ghosts of 2019 are still haunting those who dare to make a definitive prediction. The most courageous words we can hear from political experts is that this election is Anthony Albanese’s to lose, but it also has to be remembered that no political party has ever come from this far behind in the final week of a campaign, and managed to win the election. Can Morrison repeat his success of 2019? It’s not impossible, but it must be close to impossible.

The worst-case scenario for the Liberal–National Coalition is a Labor majority victory, coupled with a team of teal independents who create a massive buffer between them and the Coalition, pushing government out of reach. If this scenario comes to fruition, the Coalition will be out of office for a long time.

And one of the forgotten parties of Australian politics – the Australian Democrats – is making a comeback and we speak to two of their candidates: Elena Mitchell and Steve Baty. Their halcyon days were well over twenty years ago, when they held nine Senate seats, and even if they manage to win one seat, it will complete a remarkable comeback, after losing their final Senate seats in 2008. And it seems like it’s the right time for a political force to “keep the bastards honest”, the original slogan created by the original Democrat, Don Chipp. It’s well overdue.

Four weeks into the campaign and real votes are being cast, with the acceptance of postal votes and the prepoll period commencing soon. In 2019, Labor won the two-party preferred vote – but lost the vote by a wide margin during the prepolling period and, as a result, has reworked it’s campaigning processes and is viewing the 2022 election not just as ‘election day’, but the ‘election fortnight’.

Some people were bemused by Labor’s relatively early campaign launch, but it makes sense when taking this ‘election fortnight’ strategy into account. The Liberal Party will hold their campaign launch in the final week – which means they’ll still collect public funding until this time – but this epitomises Scott Morrison perfectly. If there is a public handout available there, he’ll be there to collect it.

As predicted, there was a cash rate rise during the week, but it’s not the Prime Minister’s fault: it’s all about external events, the war in Ukraine… maybe it’s even Labor’s fault, but it doesn’t really matter, because it’s not about politics and mortgage holders have factored into account these rate rises through their savings. Apparently.

Morrison takes the credit when the good news arrives, and always finds someone else to blame when the bad news arrives. But it cannot be like this: a Prime Minister has to take responsibility for everything, not just pick and choose the narrative that suits their agenda at the time.

And, once again, Morrison claims a federal ICAC will be a ‘kangaroo court’, but we feel he doesn’t want an anti-corruption commission because he is likely to one of the first MPs to appear once this body is established. And, more than likely, followed by many of his frontbench team: this has the potential to keep a federal ICAC busy for a least a decade, decimate the Liberal and National parties, and keep them out of office for another decade on top of that, so it’s obvious why Morrison is not keen on a federal ICAC.

A debate between Josh Frydenberg and Jim Chalmers focussed on ‘cost of living’ pressures: a civil affair, but if the Coalition wins the election, will Frydenberg actually be the Treasurer? He’s facing a difficult task in the seat of Kooyong and there’s inside speculation that the seat might already be lost to the independent challenger, Monique Ryan.

There was also a new batch of opinion polls, and it’s the same story as before: no change – if anything, they’ve become worse for the Coalition. Labor is in a winning position in all of these polls, and has been for the past 104 surveys, but we have to remember what happened in 2019: Labor ahead in over 100 consecutive opinion polls, only to lose the election. It’s unlikely, but it could happen again in 2022 – the only hope for the Coalition is that it’s happened before, but this time around, they are much further behind.

And we answer audience questions: this week, our opinions on the chances of The New Liberals; and the possibility of a Royal Commission into COVID management. We think there should be one.

Anthony Albanese was missing from the election campaign for one week, and didn’t the media have a field day. Unfortunately, the media has it in for Albanese, and instead of the predicted nightmare disaster that was meant to be caused by their leader’s absence, Labor managed to highlight key members from their frontbench – the differences between the two sides of politics could not be more stark.

Perhaps it might have been better to focus on all the occasions Scott Morrison has been absent over the past three years?

Climate change also entered the campaign, but Labor didn’t really need to make too many announcements on this issue. The King of Coal, Matt Canavan, suggested the net zero by 2050 target for the Liberal–National Coalition was “dead” and was never going to happen and, as a result of his statements, the eternal colour of happiness is teal. Candidates from the Voices Of group of independents could barely conceal their delight and the stupidity of Canavan and Colin Boyce in voicing their opinions so stridently. As Napoleon Bonaparte suggested, never interfere when your enemy is making all mistakes.

ANZAC Day was held during the week, and what better way for a politician to show disrespect and disdain for those people who died in Australian wars, by talking up a war with China, or driving mobile Liberal Party billboards during an ANZAC Day service in Geelong.

Really, we have to start questioning the sanity of leaders such as Peter Dutton and Morrison, because it’s these types of foolish leaders who sacrifice the lives of young soldiers, while hiding in their coward’s castles, far away from any mortal danger.

And this foolishness was also on display in the Solomon Islands, where Australia threw away high level hard and soft diplomacy measures and allowed China extend its sphere of influence into the Pacific. The Prime Minister has really found himself on the sticky end of a fried dough stick.

It’s also becoming more apparent this foolishness in Canberra is about to end, with all opinion polls predicting a Labor victory on election day – 21 May – they also predicted a Labor victory in 2019 but, this time around, it’s hard to see where Scott Morrison’s victory is going to come from. It really is.