New Politics: Australian Politics, News, Analysis & Commentary

It’s increasingly obvious the Prime Minister is using the final stages of this Parliament to roadtest a number of different election slogans. Last week it was ‘Australians taking back their lives’, followed by ‘Australians have had a gutful of being told what to do’, interspersed with ‘cost of living’ and ‘can-do capitalism’. This week it was ‘moving forward’. But where are we moving forward to? What’s the destination? What happens at this destination? Who’s going to be there when we get there?

All of this is real-life mass focus group testing, to feed back into Liberal Party qualitative research, almost as blasé as the Colgate-Palmolive marketing division testing slogans for soap powder advertisements. That’s what politics has become for Scott Morrison: a marketing exercise and Parliament reduced to a forum to create political slogans and campaign marketing.

It might not be politics as we know it, but it looks more like a Prime Minister at the last chance saloon: rolling two dice to try and reach 18, when we all know the maximum is 12. Also known as desperation. Of course, this may end up in an election victory for the Liberal–National Coalition, but it’s becoming increasingly unlikely.

And in the psychological battle between the two leaders, Anthony Albanese laid a super-size bear trap for Scott Morrison, and he fell right into it. A normal leader would avoid a return to the scene of their biggest humiliation – in Morrison’s case, the holiday trip to Hawaii during the peak of the bushfire catastrophe in 2019 – but Morrison is no normal leader, and he has to win every single battle, even the ones not worth winning. He lied about providing the destination of his holiday to Albanese – easily refuted – when he should have just apologised (again), said that he will never do that again and he learned his lesson. And we all would have moved on.

But it became the news of the day and magnified the issue Labor wanted to focus on: Morrison is a pathological liar and untrustworthy.

Independents are likely to have a big influence in the 2022 election, and we speak with Hayden O’Connor from the Voices of Kooyong, a campaign which wants to unseat the Treasurer and current member for Kooyong, Josh Frydenberg. It’s a tough ask, but they have the determination to consign Frydenberg to the dustbin of history.

And wouldn’t that be a sweet victory.

Once again, the Liberal–National Coalition is attacking the ABC, and doing the bidding of News Corporation in its quest to remove the ABC from government ownership and sell if off to the highest bidder. And several state divisions of the Liberal Party – and all the Young Liberal branches – have already passed resolutions to privatise the ABC and it’s also one of the key objectives of the Institute of Public Affairs.

Yes, the ABC needs to be reformed and it shouldn’t just try to replicate what the commercial media outlets are producing, but it’s a key cultural, educational and essential services media broadcast, and one of the best in the world. But the ABC has no political friends left – the Coalition wants to privatise it and Labor, which turns up to every election promising more funds for the ABC – only for the ABC to propagandise against the Labor Party – might decide that it always campaigns for the ABC, but never receives any electoral benefit from its efforts. So it might decide it’s just not worth it. Whoever wins the next election, the future is not looking bright for the ABC.

It took five days for Scott Morrison to make his response to the Melbourne protests, and when it came, it seemed half-hearted and expressed sympathy for the protestors. Morrison just cannot find it within himself to castigate his key supporters, even when they’re calling for the assassination of the Premier of Victoria. And it’s unclear why Morrison would want to claim this right-wing rabble as his own – these extremists are hardly going to vote for left-of-centre parties and expressing a clear condemnation of these protestors and their actions would have been the right thing for a political leader to do.

But Morrison is purely focused on votes. After all, that’s what wins elections for a politician: votes. But some votes are not worth chasing, and it would have better to let those voters float away, which surely would have boosted support from other areas in the electoral. Sometimes, Morrison cannot help himself, and this was one of those occasions. Australia needs leadership from the federal govenment, but that might need to be delivered by another government, and a different prime minister, at some point in the future.

Australia is seeking national leadership at this point of time to ward off the threat of extremist behaviour in Melbourne but instead of trying to dampen the enthusiasm of QAnon, neo-Nazis, fascists, sovereign citizens and assorted fringe dwellers, Scott Morrison is hoping to hang onto their votes at the next federal election and he decided the best course of action is to just keep quiet, lest he upset his supporter base.

The weekend protests in Melbourne attracted 5,000 people, primarily to voice their disapproval of the vaccine mandates – even though most of them won’t be affected by a mandate – but that wasn’t enough to stop them demanding the resignation of Victoria Premier Daniel Andrews, some actually calling for his assassination.

And this wasn’t enough for Morrison to castigate their actions – these are his people, and it’s not up to him to say anything about it, or even lift a finger indirectly. For example, alerting the Australian Federal Police, or the Fixated Persons Unit. It’s not too much to ask, but Morrison is more interested in keeping votes, rather than acting in the interests of the community.

And the latest round of polling is still pointing to an electoral demolition for the Liberal–National Coalition at the next federal election. That’s not to say Morrison can’t turn it around – after all, he was in exactly the same position in November 2018 and, six months later, he was on the victor’s podium on election night – but two elections in a row, while not impossible, is incredibly difficult.

But one issue that won’t help is Morrison has decided to channel the 2004 election strategy used by John Howard – who do you trust?… But in typical Morrison fashion, he’s overpromised in areas that is almost impossible to keep a promise – the trifecta of low interest rates, low cost of living, and low petrol prices. We think it might be three lies too far and he’s foolish to make this promises.

A one-off 0.25 interest rate hike, a CPI increase of 1%, or petrol prices going up by 5 cents per litre – any of these events will finish Scott Morrison off, especially if whatever he says isn’t matched by people’s lived experiences.

He might be finished anyway, and we believe the only way Australia can move away from the current events in Melbourne is a change of government. It’s becoming more and more evident by the day.

Paul Keating was a hit at the National Press Club address during the week, but members of the federal government were not so happy about this. Because he spoke positively and realistically about China and Australia’s place in the world: which rubs against the grain of the government’s narrative of depicting China as a massive threat to Australia. And the media is happy to jump in and offer their support, using every negative cliché about China in their reportage – falling short of using the “Yellow Peril” rhetoric from the 1900s, but coming close. Good things do come out of China, but you wouldn’t think so if you only listened to Scott Morrison, Peter Dutton, and their friends in the mainstream media.

And we’re finding out more about the Coalition’s re-election strategy: lie about the past, lie about the future, lie about the lies. There can be no end to this. And there are two new election slogans to add to Scott Morrison’s reductive lexicon. “Labor wants to tell you what to do”, which, at eight words, is a massive improvement on the three-word version – and supporters of the shorter version slogan will not be disappointed. “Can-do capitalism” is the latest revelation, and it’s as empty as all of the previous slogans. But that’s not the point: this is a government that governs for the politically disengaged.

Or, if we want to be more sophisticated, it’s what Mark Twain would call a paralysis of intellect, a label he placed upon Australia when he visited in 1895, a country which, to him, seemed quite incurious. And, 126 years later, an incurious Prime Minister who is afflicted with a paralysis of intellect is gradually being exposed as a marketing trickster.

Anthony Albanese is becoming more assertive in his attacks on Scott Morrison, and in his attacks on journalists. And these actions suggest Labor’s internal research is giving them a greater level of confidence that they can win the next federal election.

There won’t be a federal election in the short term, but that doesn’t mean campaigning can’t start early. It feels like the election campaign has already commenced, with Scott Morrison wanting to ‘move on’ from all the errors from the past and present his best face to the public.

But this depends on the fine art of the political lie, of which Morrison is happy to contribute to. In 2004, John Howard opened his campaign with “who do you trust on the economy?”, flushing out memories of continuous ‘mean and tricky’ lies, and helping him to roll Mark Latham and the Labor Party on election day. Morrison will use this same strategy but he’s not as clever as Howard, and he’s not up against Latham. Will it work? He’ll certainly try it out.

Two and half years after Anthony Albanese decreed ‘no Labor MP will use “liar” to describe their opponents’, the term has become very fashionable and Labor is now calling Morrison a liar at every opportunity. Which means its focus group testing is suggesting Morrison’s propensity to lie and misrepresent everything in sight is become a serious problem for him.

Branch stacking occurs in all political parties but it seems that there are different media rules when it comes to reporting Liberal Party malfeasance. The Assistant Treasurer, Michael Sukkar has been accused of implementing a tax-payer funded system, where political staffers had the task of signing up Opus Dei, neo-Nazis and fascists as members of the Liberal Party, so Sukkar could hold control of the Victoria branch of the Liberal Party.

The media has been reporting about these issues but, essentially, it’s just providing the facts without the running commentary which they always provide when the Labor Party is involved in branch stacking – ‘The MP needs to be expelled! Daniel Andrews needs to resign! Albanese too!’

But they’ve been strangely quiet in creating a link with Scott Morrison, and when Josh Frydenberg suggested there was nothing to see here, they shrugged their shoulders and ‘moved on’. Which is just the way the Liberal Party would like it.

And in keeping with the Liberal Party’s form in terrorising women of all persuasions, two Liberal Party MPs – Christian Porter and Andrew Laming – have threatened defamation action against the academic, Gemma Carey, who posted offensive Twitter messages about these men, who then removed those messages and publicly apologised for these messages.

For most people, this would be enough, but these Liberal Party MPs are glass-jawed and their action is all about shutting up the people who criticise the government and members of this government. And we’re seeing why the Liberal Party encourages illiberal people such as right-wing religious fanatics, neo-Nazis and fascists to become a part of their membership.

They’re very happy to dish out the abuse, but will ensure that when members of the public try to return serve, they’ll use laws inappropriately to crush dissent.

The Prime Minister was reluctant to go to the COP26 climate change conference and it’s obvious to see why. To say it was a diplomatic disaster is an understatement and the more Scott Morrison makes politics all about him, the more he is exposed as an ineffective prime minister who appears to be severely out of his depth.

It’s one thing to create a diplomatic problem with a long-term European ally, but it’s another issue entirely to start leaking private text messages received from the French President. And as if to outdo his own stupidity, Morrison decided it would be a good idea to leak a confidential 15-page communications document to embarrass the US President. It’s hard to know who’s advising Morrison – he might be following his own advice – but it was an incredibly foolish action, and it may take years for the relationships with France to be repaired.

An impassioned speech at COP26 by the Prime Minister of Barbados, Mia Mottley, was received favourably by the world community – Morrison was in the audience but it’s hard to know if he actually listened: he ruled out supporting a 30% reduction of methane gases by 2030, and refused to join the 40 countries wanted to phase out coal production. Best to go off to the Australian pavilion at COP26 under the banner of “Positive Energy: The Australian Way” and view the Santos carbon capture to see how well they’re spending the $220 million credit they’ve received from the federal government’s $4.5 billion fund to pollute the environment.

The former Premier of NSW – who we now believe is deserving of the moniker of “disgraced former Premier” – has provided all the evidence she needs to present to the NSW ICAC, and their findings will be presented in the early part of 2022. With Parliament no longer a forum for accountability and the media deciding to never hold conservative governments to account, the role of the NSW ICAC is becoming increasingly more important, and it’s a model which should be implemented at the federal level.

And the release of these findings – which could be incredibly adverse for the NSW Liberal Party – could severely derail the next federal election. And there’s also a SA General Election to be held in March 2022, as well as five byelections for the NSW Parliament in the early part of the year. For the Morrison government to be re-elected at the next federal election, everything needs to start going right for them and everything is going in the opposite direction.

It’s going to be a tough election to win.

What is Scott Morrison? A brand name? A theme, a hologram, a Prime Minister, an advertisement, a football coach?… or just a person? It’s hard to know, because Morrison reveals so little of who he actually is. But does it really matter? We reveal all in a conversation with Sean Kelly, discussing his brand new book, “The Game: A Portrait of Scott Morrison”, published by Black Inc. Books.

We try to pin Morrison down, but it’s so difficult. So, we start off with the “Where the Bloody Hell Are You?” campaign: was this the beginning of Morrison’s pitch to become Prime Minister? This advertisement was a segue from one disconnected idea to the next and, in hindsight, this is Morrison’s prime ministership in a nutshell: disconnected ideas, clichés, the good times, spin and marketing… and presenting the face of Australia that masks the unpalatable reality of life.

Politics seems to be a game for Morrison but decisions made in Canberra have real-life consequences in the real world and affect millions of people, not just in Australia, but all around the world. There are many serious issues facing Australia and during a time of pandemic and climate change, the electorate is looking to government to ameliorate these issues. It’s not a game. But will Morrison change his strategy (or his marketing plan)?

The ‘selling of a prime minister’ got Morrison to the 2019 election and it may well get him through to the next election. But people have begun to ask questions about who Morrison is. And many in the electorate have begun to ask, ‘what else is there? Where is the real guy?’

That will be one of the interesting points in the lead up to the next election campaign.

The Plan To Deliver Net Zero is much like the Morrison government: it’s insubstantial, inadequate, filled with political marketing and spin and, ultimately, does very little to act on climate change. It’s all about politics and directed at those people in the electorate who might be thinking about switching their vote away from the Liberal and National parties at the next election, of which there is a substantial number.

Morrison lacks intellect and he’s incurious about the world. But he has rat cunning and will do anything to hold on to power and win the next federal election. This, of course, makes him a dangerous Prime Minister. For him, climate change is not an environmental issue, it’s a political issue that he wants to swat away with a 20-page glossy document. It’s far easier to tell the electorate what they want to hear, not what needs to be done to secure the future of Australia or take the opportunities climate change presents to the Australian economy and industry base.

The Morrison government is now like a wounded beast, bearing its teeth at anything it thinks can provide it with advantage. And Voter ID legislation is one of those issues. It’s not an issue that has been on anyone’s agenda during this Parliamentary term, yet Scott Morrison wants to convince the public that voter fraud is a serious issue – it’s not – and present himself as someone who wants to address a major problem.

Like the history and culture wars, this is a solution seeking a problem – not even the friends of the Liberal Party – the Institute of Public Affairs – has called for this, saying that it’s a regressive move. But if Morrison can find an advantage in voter suppression, he will go there. How else would the most corrupt and incompetent government in Australia’s history cling onto power if they only depended on legitimate efforts?

One person who has had enough is Tony Smith, who has resigned as the Speaker of the House of Representatives. After the humiliation of been voted down by his own government, he had no choice. But there was only one more week of Parliamentary sittings for 2021: what could all this mean? He wanted do his Christmas shopping earlier? Send a message to the government? Or clear the decks for a December federal election?

We think it could be all three.

The latest opinions polls show Scott Morrison is still on the nose and might have reached the point of no return. It’s currently 46% to the LNP and 54% to Labor in the two-party preferred voting and while it’s always possible for governments to make up ground, it is a difficult task. Morrison is looking panicked and a panicked prime minister will always start rolling the dice more erratically, or look to filthy lucre to see if the election victory from May 2019 can be repeated.

Lighting rarely strikes twice in the same location but that’s exactly what Morrison will be looking for. His opponent, Anthony Albanese, has a different set of issues. When he first became leader, in response to criticism that he wasn’t ‘taking it up to the government’, he suggested that in politics, you have to wait until the fourth quarter and then start kicking with the wind.

We assume he’s talking AFL but in the football parlance, Labor has been ahead at three-quarter time by 10 goals in recent elections – and kicking with the wind – but has gone on to lose those elections. Albanese did suggest there’s a possibility of an election in December, so surely this must be the fourth quarter and the wind has started to blow.

But where’s Albanese? Still in the changerooms, keeping his powder dry. It will be a pity if the final siren blows and Albanese remains in the changeroom still rehearsing his lines and warm-ups, because there’s the possibility Morrison may have completed his victory lap by then.

And there’s a Coalition agreement for achieving net-zero emissions by 2050? Well, the media seems to think so, even though there is no change to policy, there is no detail, and there is no modelling. A sensible mainstream media would have picked up these anomalies, and quickly outlined the accommodation of the National Party into net-zero, is actually a net-zero scam, and all based around trying to win the next election.

All Morrison had to do was wave a slick glossy brochure at the media, and they all seemed to agree that it’s all over: climate change is no longer a political problem for the federal government. Morrison decreed that he is the man of action on climate change, the ‘man with the plan’, and the media believed him.

Will the electorate fall for it so easily? We don’t think so.

Recent events in NSW have shown that its Independent Commission Against Corruption is doing its job, despite the protests of Scott Morrison: the Obeids and Ian Macdonald have been sentenced to jail for attempting to embezzle $100 million through a coal mine lease licence between 2007-2009.

It was the NSW ICAC which commenced proceedings against these former NSW Labor MPs; and it’s the same NSW ICAC which is currently investigating the arrangements between former NSW Liberal Premier, Gladys Berejiklian, and former Wagga Wagga MP, Daryl Maguire – who decided that getting a cut from a corrupt land deal wasn’t enough; he just had to get his hands on a corrupt cash-for-visa scheme through a 10% commission. And Maguire was also running this scheme through his Parliamentary office.

Dispatching visas is the responsibility of the Department of Immigration. And who was the Minister of Immigration during the time Maguire was operating his cash-for-visa scheme? None other than Scott Morrison who, of course, has denied any involvement with the scheme. But Morrison is a pathological liar and it’s in his interests to deny any involvement. Perhaps this is an issue a federal ICAC could investigate… if only we had one. It gives us an insight into why Morrison isn’t keen on establishing a federal ICAC and confirms our suspicions that a prime minister who does everything possible to deter a body that investigates corruption in federal politics, is more likely than not, corrupt.

The federal parliament saw one the most egregious acts committed against the Spreaker of the House of Representatives: the Morrison government ignored a ruling by the Speaker, which has never happened in the 120-year history of federation. We now have a federal government which ignores Parliament, it ignores convention, it ignores the Constitution, it now ignores the rulings of the Speaker – which is akin to a criminal ignoring the findings of the judge. It’s contempt, and it’s the reason why corruption is allowed to fester. And a complicit media who were happy to ignore one of the most scandalous incidents ever in federal Parliament.

It seems a November election is out of the question… but December? We always felt Morrison would call the election for May 2022 because, as a procrastinator, holding the election on the last possible date on May 22 means the decision will be made for him. Or, at least, that’s what our theory was.

Why December? It’s obvious: the success of Scott Morrison depends on distraction. NSW and Victoria are coming out of lockdown, it will be close to Christmas; people will be thinking about the end of year, Christmas shopping and everything else… except for politics. It’s a perfect remedy for Morrison: a seal of approval because the electorate is too distracted to carefully scrutinise his poor performance over the past three years.

It’s cynical, but that’s Scott Morrison. And it might just work.