New Politics: Australian Politics, News, Analysis & Commentary

Conventional wisdom suggests there are two types of Budgets: one that's in surplus, and one that's in deficit. But there's also the Budget type that is totally political, and we've got a feeling Josh Frydenberg's first (and probably final) Budget is in the realm of smoke and mirrors. Anyway, we'll let you know in September 2020 if it was truly a surplus Budget – that's when we'll actually find out.

The 45th Parliament was action-packed – two different Prime Ministers, mass resignations due to the citizenship debacle, several Super Saturday by-elections, and the government ended up finding itself plunged into minority. For the fine aficionados of politics, it's great news. But it's terrible news for the electorate: they crave stability and all they're getting is political navel gazing and opportunism. It's simply not good enough.

Waiting for the 2019 election to be announced is worse than Waiting for Godot. And just like Estragon, Scott Morrison is hoping to catch Labor with its pants down, but we don't think that's going to happen. The kitchen sink has been thrown at Bill Shorten and there's not much more that can be thrown at him. The Coalition is still behind in the polls and the last date to hold the election is May 18. Or is it? May 25 is now seriously considered an option, but the electorate wants an election now.

The NSW Election is all over, and the Coalition Government has been returned for a third term. But is it the landslide victory the mainstream media is claiming? No, of course not: they only just scraped in by one seat, and the National Party lost seats to the Shooters Fishers and Farmers Party. Labor also fared poorly, crashing in the final week with a bit of casual racism, and they will commence their search for answers, and a new leader, very soon.

But, there's casual racism and in-your-face racism, and we think our Prime Minister and Home Affairs Minister engage in racism as often as they have breakfast. Luckily for them, the pusillanimous media never calls them out. In the wake of the Christchurch killings, Scott Morrison floundered, and something from 2010 came back to bite him. It seems that in modern Australia, it's more offensive to accuse someone of racism, than the racist act itself. We think it's OK to use the 'R' word, and we'll continue to call out racism wherever we see it.

As we move closer to the 2019 federal election, there's only one more shot in the locker for the Liberal-National Party: the 2019 Budget. Will it make any difference to their electoral chances? Probably not. We're very sure the electorate is keen to give the LNP a lesson they will remember for a long time, and not even the slender victory in the NSW Election for their NSW counterparts will make much of a difference either. Their day of reckoning is coming soon.

There is so much corruption and unethical behaviour by this federal Government that it's hard to know where to begin: Helloworld, Paladin, Parakeelia, Ministers refusing to provide evidence to the Australian Federal Police… it's not a good look.

But there's more: government Ministers are resigning and retiring, with rumours of more to follow. It's hard to shake the perception that the ship is sinking and MPs are bailing out. The polls certainly suggest that, with 164 losing polls for the LNP since August 2016, and the latest Newspoll stuck at 46 per cent. That's not a good look either.

Child sexual assault, one would assume, is a serious criminal charge, and George Pell has been found guilty. So why is most of the conservative media claiming his innocence? He's now a convicted paedophile. The answer is: Rupert Murdoch. As usual.

And the art of lying in politics. Lies are becoming bigger, but not better. More egregious and more frequent. And with each egregious lie, another nail is hammered into the coffin of democracy, even though it's becoming harder to conceal the political lie, thanks to the immediacy of the internet and social media.

Of course, we sign off with our usual message, which has now become a pro forma: We still think the Government will suffer a major defeat at the next election.

January is usually a quiet time in politics but not this year: there are two big elections to be won (NSW and federal elections) and all sides of politics are vying for poll position. Every year is different but this year has been more different than most – it started off with an almost biblical fish kill in the Murray-Darling Basin; and there have been floods in the north and fires in the south. Just like it was predicted in the book of Leviticus.

Climate change was a big factor in the 2018 by-elections and we think this will continue in 2019, with the political party doing the least about the environment, to be punished the most. In our humble opinion…

It was all happening: Captain Cook and the culture wars, another Captain’s call in the seat of Gilmore, a franking credits farce, and a spate of ministerial resignations. Can they see the writing on the wall for the Liberal Party, or do they really want to spend more time with their families?

We also focus on the Banking Royal Commission, the one the Liberal Party voted against 26 times. It's a net negative for the the Government and we can see why they tried to deflect all blame for the Royal Commission onto the Labor Party. But will it wash with the public? That's very unlikely, there's only a certain amount of misspoken mistruths the electorate can handle. We still think the Government will suffer a major defeat at the next election.

Another wipeout for the Liberal Party in the southern state of Victoria means their federal counterparts need to watch out, with their election due by May 2019. Was Victoria a win of the good over the bad? No, it shows winning election campaigns can be run on a positive agenda and the big message is: say what you do, and do what you say. But are you listening, Scott Morrison?

Leaders are being changed at the drop of a hat or, in the case of the NSW Labor leader, Luke Foley, the dropping of pants. Another MP caught up in sexual harassment, and he's had to resign from his position. Alcohol, journalists and politicians is not a very good mix, but why do MPs of all persuasions decide it's OK to harass and molest women in politics? What type of community standards are set when conservative Senators make lewd comments about women in parliament? It's time they shut-up, zipped up their pants and kept their fingers to themselves.

It's the question on everyone's lips: will this government last the full term? It's impractical to call the election now, so we think the federal election will be held in early March or May 2019. But this government is divided, has little in the way of an agenda, and is prepared to say and do anything to win any argument and score political points. It's a disaster for the Liberal/National Party, and the leadership changes, a lack of a clear agenda, as well as its general nastiness, could consign it to the dustbin – and possibly worse – in the first half of 2019.

We had history in the making in the seat of Wentworth, a by-election thrashing of the Liberals following the resignation of Malcolm Turnbull, and we now have another independent on the crossbenches – come on down, Kerryn Phelps. The LNP has slipped into minority government territory and it's going to be difficult for them to hang on to office at the next general election.

The LNP is floundering, although they'll keep beating the drum of their old favourite – asylum seekers and boat arrivals. After making noises during the Wentworth by-election about releasing children from Nauru and Manus Island, they've slammed the door shut again. But is asylum seeking and immigration such an electoral advantage for the conservatives? Have the sands shifted to the left of where the LNP is positioning itself? We think so and feel the public has had enough.

And how can the public image of a Prime Minister be sold successfully to the electorate, especially when their polling is in negativeland, their party is on the nose, the policy cupboard is bare and there's nothing positive to offer? Is driving a bus all the way around Queensland one part of the solution? We don't have the answers: it's a very very tough question.

The Liberal Party is facing challenges in three big elections – Victoria, NSW and federal – with a few other challenges in the Wentworth by-election. But the biggest issue is money – they haven't got enough to run these elections and, with their biggest fundraisers now out of the spotlight (Malcolm Turnbull and Julie Bishop), where will the money be coming from? The Prime Minister, Scott Morrison, has been in the job for one month and, while he has started from a low base, could this period now end up being his high-water mark? Is he the one to rescue the Liberal Party from dire straits? We're suffering from ‘Royal Commission fatigue syndrome’ – we now have the sixth Royal Commission in five years – and there seems to be too many of them. Why are there so many issues in aged care that require urgent attention, when governments are meant to manage the sector effectively? Does it mean governments are failing to government properly? We think the answer is "yes". Our monthly podcast: 37 minutes of audio gold.

It's been dubbed the week of madness in Canberra, but it was also a week of gross incompetence and a fine example of the poor political management that has encompassed the Liberal National Party since it formed government in 2013. Why turn up to a leadership spill without an abacus?

Malcolm Turnbull is no longer the Prime Minister. It was the forces led by Tony Abbott and the extreme right wing of the Liberal Party that created the momentum to install their Manchurian Candidate, Peter Dutton. But the final day of Malcolm Turnbull was his best: running rings about his challengers, using brilliant strategy and tactics to make sure Dutton never became Prime Minister.

It's just a pity it took three years for Turnbull to play strategically and, by this time, it was too late. His demise was all of his own work. If only he behaved like a real Prime Minister. If only…

We now have a new Prime Minister, Scott Morrison. Hold back your excitement.

We dissect the seven days of madness in Canberra; how this leadership spill compares with other spills in Australia's history; and, what the future holds for the Liberal Party, the new Prime Minister, and Australian politics.

Super Saturday: it sounds so American, but we had it all in our own backyard – Perth, Fremantle, Mayo, Braddon and Longman. A campaign that started with all the pressure on Bill Shorten completely swung around and returned all the pressure onto Malcolm Turnbull. How did this happen? How did the media get it all wrong? They have form, and have constantly sided with the conservative forces in recent times.

We discuss in fine detail, the Super Saturday byelections and outline how and why Malcolm Turnbull is a poor election campaigner; the #KillBill campaign and how the Liberals turned it into Pulp Fiction; and what the ramifications are for both parties for the next election, which increasingly looks likely to be held in May 2019.

Hosted by Eddy Jokovich and David Lewis.

Five federal byelections, and we think the more things change, the more they will stay the same. We suggest there will be no change in the numbers on the floor, but politics is so unpredictable in this day and age, so who knows?

The Institute of Public Affairs: an insidious influence on politics, or part of the broad church of parliament? No, we think it's insidious and ruining democracy in Australia. It's the IPA and others, such as the Ramsey Centre of Western Civilisation, that are causing trouble, now wanting to influence Australian universities.

And the old punching-bag of conservatives, the ABC, is in the firing line. The Liberals want to privatise the ABC – yes, their Council voted for this – yet, federal cabinet is denying this to be the case. But who said "no cuts to the ABC", just before he cut $254 million from their budget? Yes, former Liberal Prime Minister, Tony Abbott. Can the Liberals be trusted with the ABC? No, we don't think so.