Donald Trump has an “overwhelming lead” in the Iowa caucus but he is not the sure winner. There is still a narrow window to change the course of the election, although that window is only open for about a month more. I talk to political reporters Elaine Godfrey—who is headed to Iowa—and Mark Leibovich about the genuine possibility of something surprising happening in Iowa and in the Republican primaries in the month ahead. We discuss the path, “more like a deer trail,” says Godfrey, for Nikki Haley to win the nomination. And we discuss what the near future looks like if she does, or doesn’t.

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