NonProphets

Episode 38 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss US news stories prior to a brief, upcoming vacation, including what Trump says vs. what Trump actually believes (00:52), our military presence in Afghanistan (7:19), Trump and North Korea (13:15), and the possibility of a senior member of the Trump administration leaving (OTE - Gorka!) (25:41). They close with a discussion of whether Trump will pardon Sheriff Joe Arpaio (OTE - yes!). As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or [email protected]. (recorded 8/22/2017)

Episode 37 of the NonProphets podcast in which Robert and Scott interview Colin Teichholtz, a partner and portfolio manager at global investment firm Pine River Capital about how he made money arbitraging used books in college and what makes someone good at identifying value in markets (0:41), whether people who trade with major investment firms are suckers (8:10), the value of financial advice (13:51), the advantages and disadvantages of risk parity funds (19:48), what drives changes in market volatility (23:08), what will happen if Congress doesn't raise the debt ceiling (37:03), why market volatility has been low recently (39:52),

why inflation hasn't been going up much in the US even though unemployment is low (43:49), whether productivity growth in the US has stalled (55:05), whether Mark Zuckerberg will run for president in 2020 (57:01), what it's like to work next to Trump Tower (59:06), and why he introduced Michael J. Fox to Anthony Scaramucci (1:05:49). As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or [email protected]. (recorded 8/3/2017)

Episode 36 of the NonProphets podcast in which Atief, Robert, Scott discuss the PredictIt group forecasts about the possibility of Trump leaving office by the end of 2017 or 2018 (00:19), voter suppression (34:45), the possibility of compelling evidence of collusion (42:06), and Democratic messaging, rhetoric, and the "war on reality" (46:05). They close with a discussion of recent news regarding North Korea's nuclear weapons program (54:04). As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or [email protected]. (recorded 7/26/2017)

Episode 35 of the NonProphets podcast in which Atief, Robert, Scott talk with Elaine Rich. Elaine was with the Good Judgment Project since its first year, is a Superforecaster, and a dispensing pharmacist at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center. She was featured on NPR, promoting the Good Judgment Project. We discuss what drew her to forecasting, what has contributed to her ongoing success, and the merits of working anonymously vs. in a group, and probabilistically vs being a pundit. As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or [email protected]. (recorded 7/12/2017)

Episode 34 of NonProphets, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott talk about Romanian politics and Romanian tax policy (0:48), the recent special election in Georgia's 6th congressional district (15:17), the Republican healthcare bill's chances in the Senate (26:58), whether military action could make President Trump more popular (34:44), whether Nancy Pelosi makes it harder for Democrats to win elections (38:20), "Trump's Mirror" (39:59), and how the Supreme Court will rule in its upcoming partisan gerrymandering case (47:30). As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or [email protected]. (recorded 6/21/2017)

Episode 33 of NonProphets, in which Atief and Scott welcome back Robert, who discusses his vacation (00:12), before the three of them give their thoughts on the Comey hearing (5:00), Hawaiian superstitions (7:59), violence in politics (9:44), and different models for trying to understand and predict the Trump administration (24:15). They close with an additional discussion of Robert's vacation (47:55), the COVFEFE Act and Trump's Twitter account as a presidential record (48:46), and Senator Charles Schumer, Harvard legend (53:32). As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or [email protected].

Episode 32 of the NonProphets podcast in which Atief and Scott (Robert’s on vacation) discuss: Have probabilities broken? (1:30). Comey – Who’s the liar? (4:30). Polarization is leading to violence, but there are bright signs of humanity across the political spectrum (10:35). How to reduce the risk of nuclear war by employing the Fisher Protocol (19:45). Inflection points (21:00). Kansas experiment in conservative economics (34:50). UK – Theresa May (36:45). A model for the Trump Administration – Anti-Elitism/Technocrats (46:45). They close with a discussion of whether President Trump will discover the power of the Pardon Pen in 2017. As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or [email protected]. (recorded 6/8/2017).

Episode 31 of the NonProphets podcast in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss the Special Counsel and forecasting whether recent events will lead to impeachment or resignation of Trump. As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or [email protected]. (recorded 5/17/2017)

Episode 30 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott—recorded the day after it happened—discuss the surprise firing of FBI Director James Comey (1:11), whether Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein will appoint Special Counsel to investigate the Trump campaign's ties to Russia (11:12), why firing the FBI Director is problematic even though the president has the legal authority to fire him (13:42), what President Trump could do with the pardon power (17:05), whether we should expect widespread voter suppression in 2018 (22:00), what motivates the Republican Party (32:51), where we will be a year from now (40:09), who the next FBI director will be (43:45), whether Trump could actually be removed from office (48:41), and how Trump is like the Mule from Isaac Asimov's Foundation Series (1:03:34). We end the podcast by learning about Scott's alter ego "Nigel Shakespear" (1:06:24). As always, you may contact them at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or [email protected]. (recorded 5/10/2017)

Episode 29 of the NonProphets podcast in which Atief, Robert and Scott discuss Happy Summer Bets and Natural Catastrophes (01:30), Living on Lava Plains (14:00), Forecasting Summer Blockbusters (22:00), Top Summer Songs (33:33), The French Election (41:00), Comey?/Forecasting Campaigns (49:30), Affordable Care Act (58:00). As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or [email protected]. (recorded 5/3/2017)