Sign up to save your podcasts
Or
Share NonProphets
Share to email
Share to Facebook
Share to X
Share to email
Share to Facebook
Share to X
Or
NonProphets
NonProphets episodes
- Ep. 53: Toward the Year 2068
Episode 53 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott talk about a 1968 collection of essays speculating what 2018 would be like called Toward the Year 2018. We talk about whether it's really possible to predict the future fifty years out (00:19); the difficulty of forecasting changing norms and tastes (05:12); what the book got right and what it got wrong (10:01); how much our lives have changed since 1968 (14:58); how technology is making it harder to know what is real and what is fake (20:45); how technology could make the problems of inequality worse (26:05); how technology is changing our ideas of privacy (28:19); what science fiction scenario is closest to what life will be like in 50 years (35:04); whether there will be more than 100,000 people in space in 50 years (37:34); the problem of technological unemployment (38:27); what country we would want to be born into in 50 years (45:18); and what people 50 years from now will judge us for doing (51:46). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at [email protected]. (recorded 2/23/2018)
57 min - Ep. 53: Toward the Year 2068Episode 53 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott talk about a 1968 collection of essays speculating what 2018 would be like called Toward the Year 2018. We talk about whether it's really possible to predict the future fifty yea...57 min
- Ep. 52: Kathryn Cochran on Designing Good Forecasting QuestionsEpisode 52 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief and Robert interview Good Judgment Chief Scientist Kathryn Cochran, who leads Good Judgment's question development team, about the nuts and bolts of forecasting. We talk about how forecasts can improve adaptability (09:41); how we would craft clear, meaningful forecasting questions for a hypothetical involving Venezuela and Brazil (13:46); what we can learn from the question design and clarification process (21:18); the rigor-relevance tradeoff (26:52); a collectively painful forecasting experience from years ago (28:35); the collateral benefits of forecasting (37:05); the value of question clusters (44:17); how forecasting has affected how we see the world (55:41); and what Dr. Cochran would do to improve the forecasting ability of the US intelligence community (58:41). As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or [email protected]. (recorded 1/23/2018)1 hr 3 min
- Ep. 52: Kathryn Cochran on Designing Good Forecasting QuestionsEpisode 52 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief and Robert interview Good Judgment Chief Scientist Kathryn Cochran, who leads Good Judgment's question development team, about the nuts and bolts of forecasting.1 hr 3 min
- Ep. 52: Kathryn Cochran on How to Design Good Forecasting QuestionsEpisode 52 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief and Robert interview Good Judgment Chief Scientist Kathryn Cochran, who leads Good Judgment's question development team, about the nuts and bolts of forecasting. We talk about how forecasts can improve adaptability (09:41); how we would craft clear, meaningful forecasting questions for a hypothetical involving Venezuela and Brazil (13:46); what we can learn from the question design and clarification process (21:18); the rigor-relevance tradeoff (26:52); a collectively painful forecasting experience from years ago (28:35); the collateral benefits of forecasting (37:05); the value of question clusters (44:17); how forecasting has affected how we see the world (55:41); and what Dr. Cochran would do to improve the forecasting ability of the US intelligence community (58:41). As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or [email protected]. (recorded 1/23/2018)1 hr 3 min
- Ep. 51: Incoming Ballistic Missile AlertEpisode 51 of the NonProphets podcast in which Robert, Atief and Scott discuss: 00:30 Hawaii's Incoming Ballistic Missile Alert – How 38 minutes did not convince Robert to “Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb”57 min
- Ep. 51: Incoming Ballistic Missile AlertEpisode 51 of the NonProphets podcast in which Robert, Atief and Scott discuss:00:30 Hawaii's Incoming Ballistic Missile Alert – How 38 minutes did not convince Robert to “Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb”14:20 Problems With a Bloody Nose Strategy in North Korea15:55 Roman Hagelstein – Superforecaster, uberforecaster, and unassuming good guy19:20 The Phil Tetlock-Nassim Taleb Twitter War – The debate about “skin in the game” and “tail risk”34:25 PredictIt – State of the Union questions38:10 Passion Over Rationality41:00 Running for the Doors – Why are so many Congressmen retiring?46:34 Where the Mueller Investigation Is HeadingAs always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or [email protected] (mailto:[email protected]). (recorded 1/31/2018)57 min
- Ep. 50: Darkness RisesEpisode 50 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott talk about forecasting on PredictIt (1:08); forecasts that could go either way (4:52); our 2017 forecasts (12:37); political attacks on objectivity (14:51); where Amazon will put ...1 hr 5 min
- Ep. 50: Darkness RisesEpisode 50 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott talk about forecasting on PredictIt (1:08); forecasts that could go either way (4:52); our 2017 forecasts (12:37); political attacks on objectivity (14:51); where Amazon will put its second headquarters (17:10); the US government's UFO program (20:30); the implications of the Mueller investigation (22:52); whether Justice Kennedy will retire (27:05); whether Democrats will retake Congress in 2018 (31:07); whether Bitcoin prices will keep going up (36:54), the prospects for bipartisanship in the US (44:43), the future of autonomous vehicles (47:49); whether we should expect more "doughnut politics" (50:42); and what we thought about Star Wars: The Last Jedi (57:55). As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or [email protected]. (recorded 12/22/2017)1 hr 5 min
- 58 min
About NonProphets
From the publisher's feed
NonProphets is a weekly podcast about forecasting. The hosts became "superforecasters" based on the strength of their performances in the Good Judgment Project forecasting tournament, and they have continued to forecast on a wide array of topics with Good Judgment, Inc. In this podcast, they discuss their forecasting processes, and offer their analysis of questions on public forecasting platforms, such as the Good Judgment Open and Almanis, as well as other topics of interest to them. Most episodes end with a "Black Swan Hunt," in which they consider a momentous but low-probability event that may be more likely than many people think. Each episode is like the future: you can never be completely sure what will happen.
Feel free to reach us/contact us/praise us/harangue us/offer suggestions for forecasts or Black Swan Hunts by way of the following:
Blog: https://nonprophetspod.wordpress.com/
E-Mail: [email protected]
(Please note that the views expressed in this podcast are those of the speakers, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions, policies, or positions of any organization or its members, including any mentioned forecasting platform or organization. All content, including any written or spoken discussion, analysis, opinion, estimate, or, of course, forecast, reflects the judgment of the speaker or writer at a particular time. They are not promises or guarantees; rely on them at your own risk. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, and this podcast is intended to entertain (the audience and ourselves) only. Forecasts are not prophecies, and they may change substantially and/or frequently due to new facts, a new evaluation of old facts, or a myriad of other factors. In fact, it's helpful to revisit, re-evaluate, and, if necessary, revise forecasts with some frequency. You have been warned.)