NonProphets

Episode 63 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss Brett Kavanaugh's nomination to the Supreme Court in light of allegations that he tried to rape a fifteen-year-old girl when he was in high school. We talk about the PredictIt market for how many votes Kavanaugh will get in the Senate by October 31 (00:20); the nature of the allegations against Kavanaugh (09:38); how hearings might affect the midterm elections in the US; the altercation at an Emmy party between Mark Burnett and Tom Arnold about the rumored Trump Apprentice tapes (38:18); and a few Things Scott Cares About (44:03) As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at [email protected]. (recorded 9/18/2018)

Episode 62 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief and Robert, with Scott away, talk about a PredictIt deal for users, as well as a frankly fantastic contest the podcast is having for our listeners (00:10). We then discuss the upcoming midterms, including data sources that we find probative (9:12), and the median voter theory, Missouri and Hawaii politics, and races that we find interesting (17:22). We close with a discussion of voter turnout (51:59). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at [email protected].

Episode 61 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott talk about what they were up to all summer while they weren't podcasting. They discuss the anti-terrorism conference sponsored by Iran that Scott attended (00:58); the politicization of the administrative state (07:01); the use of pretexts in political debates (09:43); how Robert lost money by bailing out of a bet about Hawaii politics too early (17:18); how low expectations are eroding norms (19:59); how cute Atief's baby is (22:08); Robert's news fatigue (24:13); corruption and political protests in Romania (26:46); and what news stories we're each following (33:19). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at [email protected]. (recorded 8/17/2018)

Episode 60 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott catch up on what they've been up to, including Atief following the Supreme Court's upcoming Lucia vs. SEC decision (00:55), Robert attending the Hawaii state Democratic convention (16:34), a discussion of being a new parent in the context of national politics (29:47), including which celebrities we would swap in for Trump (34:15), and child-rearing tips, including using babies as props for Halloween and whether honesty is the best policy when it comes to Santa Claus (35:50).  We close with a discussion of the North Korean summit, including the potential value of the commemorative coins (43:17) and which country, among Iran, North Korea, and Saudi Arabia, wants to modernize the most (49:23). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at [email protected]. (recorded 5/31/2018).

Episode 59 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott talk to Will Jennings, head of public engagement at the political prediction market PredictIt. Will previously worked in the Obama White House and for the vice presidential campaign of Senator Tim Kaine. We talk with Will about what PredictIt is and how it works (00:45); how prediction markets can be sources of news and information (11:07); which markets have been controversial (18:37); who makes money on PredictIt and how they do it (35:11); how PredictIt comes up with specific markets (42:19); and what lessons Will has learned from working on prediction markets (47:27). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at [email protected]. (recorded 4/25/2018)