NonProphets

Episode 58 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott talk to Byron Reese about his new book, The Fourth Age: Smart Robots, Conscious Computers, and the Future of Humanity. We talk what motivated the book (00:33); what "the Fourth Age" is (02:00); the role of ideas and culture in history (07:35); whether automation will cause technological unemployment (09:00); whether automation will increase inequality (23:00); what skills we'll need in the future (29:34); whether technological changes will be socially and political disruptive (32:05); why computing and automation hasn't had a larger effect on economic measures of productivity (35:12); what access to the internet is worth (37:10); where fears about AI come from (39:52); what consciousness and free will are (43:11); why Byron is optimistic about the future (53:08). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at [email protected]. (recorded 5/2/2018)

Episode 57 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott probe the limits of their new political reality with a thought experiment that they called "Everything's on the Table" (aka "Plausible/Implausible"). After discussing the rules of the game (01:01), they discussed the possibility of an announcement about Korean reunification (4:07), Hungary (Hungaria?) making arrests in a George Soros conspiracy (7:53), Macron discussing Trump's soft hands (13:33), with a diversion into Comey's book (14:26) and the attractiveness of Helen of Troy (16:56), the special counsel indicting Trump (18:23), Trump deciding to just come clean (23:58), and whether Jeff Sessions might destroy the only copy of the Wu-Tang Clan's "Once Upon A Time in Shaolin" (27:08). Things then get full-on Trump-oriented, with a discussion of the plausibility of us learning more about Trump's penis's appearance (31:47) or nickname (33:04), whether he has an illegitimate child (34:59), Giuliani being appointed to investigate Hillary Clinton (38:24), April unemployment numbers and the overall health of the economy (OBE-ish!) (39:15), and leaked tax returns and Trump's personal wealth (40:37). We closed with a discussion of scenarios involving an FBI raid to seize thousands of penises (42:14), and a Boehner/Snoop team-up on SNL (43:32): As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at [email protected]. (recorded 4/23/2018)

Episode 56 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss "the backfire effect"—the fact that people sometimes seem to hold ideas even more firmly after being confronted with evidence they are wrong. We talk about Andrew Gelman's skepticism of the recent New England Journal of Medicine finding that firearm injuries in the US drop 20% while NRA members are attending national meetings (00:50); how skeptical we should be of research that seem to confirm our preconceptions (04:14); whether evidence can change people's minds (15:27); "The Debunking Handbook" techniques for correcting false ideas (18:48); research into how much contrary information it takes to change people's minds (23:21); whether culture or economics determines election results (29:11); how we avoid bias in forecasting and decision-making (31:25); and how we can stay out of Chumptown (39:20). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at [email protected]. (recorded 4/4/2018)

Episode 55 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss their Predictit account, including the class of questions on which they have been losing money (1:04), as well as how they approach gaining probative information out of Trump administration pronouncements (12:00). They then discuss Russia, including propaganda and assassinations (22:08), whether Scott is a Time Lord (23:57), trust, authenticity, and the Russian concept of "vranyo" (30:14), which national figures have substantial collective trust (36:04), and approaches to political debates and political persuasion (41:03). They close with a discussion of the consequences of the recent self-driving car fatality, as well as the genders, if any, of KITT and KARR (50:04). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at [email protected]. (recorded 3/23/2018)

Episode 54 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott talk about the impact of the Parkland shooting on US politics (01:45); the rapidly shifting Republican orthodoxy (14:32); whether democratic norms are weakening (24:51); Transparency International's 2017 Corruption Index (40:33); whether there will be any material change in US gun laws in the next six months (48:50); and which institutions in the US are seen as corrupt (53:41). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at [email protected]. (recorded 3/5/2018)