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NonProphets
NonProphets episodes
- Ep. 28: Rare BirdsEpisode 28 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss what makes a good leader (1:10), the French election (6:13), President Trump's first 100 days (11:55), President Trump's suggestion that we consider heading to Mars a decade earlier than planned (31:21), and the March for Science (34:12). They close with a brief foray into the Romanian pop music scene (36:13). As always, you may contact them at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or [email protected]. (recorded 4/26/2017).39 min
- Ep. 27: The French Election, the Future of NATO and the EUEpisode 27 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss Atief's foray into the world of Trump bets (00:47); the danger of not staying centered in the truth (11:06); is Jason Chaffetz is not seeking re-election a harbinger for 2018 or just a random event? (12:51:, the likelihood of North Korean nuclear test (21:16); the dangers of anchoring (22:20); the French election (23:26); Le Pen / Frexit - the future of the E.U. and NATO (28:31); the investment theory of party competition and other cures for insomnia (33:44); governing by fear (49:26); why Trump is taking so long to appoint administration officials (51:00); and a bunch of stuff about meat (57:20). As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or [email protected]. (recorded 4/20/2017)1 hr 4 min
- Ep. 26: What Does Chaos Mean to a German? (part zwei)Episode 26 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott continue their discussion with German Superforecaster and economist Roman Hagelstein. Their discussion covers Syria (00:12) as well as Germany and Syrian refugees (9:22), the general opinions that Germans have with respect to Angela Merkel (12:06), the Superforecaster investment group (19:28), and a digression into sports betting and the NBA MVP race (31:28). We close with Scott opting to bum everyone out by bringing up North Korea and existential threats (40:22). As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or [email protected].48 min
- Ep. 25: What Does Chaos Mean to a German?Episode 25 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott talk with German superforecaster and economist Roman Hagelstein about his background (0:15), how he gamed the Good Judgment Project’s forecasting markets (1:34), his general approach to forecasting (3:25), the value of “extremizing” forecasts (4:13), whether his German background affects how he forecasts (10:47), and why civil wars tend to last a long time (16:25).28 min
- Ep. 24: Striking SyriaEpisode 24 of the NonProphets podcast in which Atief, Robert and Scott discuss where America will stand in the World Corruption Index from Transparency International at the end of 2017 (00:27), the probability of the US striking Assad's government or forces in Syria (22:20), Oops - events moved quickly, so we recorded a second segment to this podcast on the 7th - post Tomahawk strike (40:50), return to corruption discussion, Comey - the Man with a Code (1:01:40), and end with Gorsuch and such goes nuclear (1:03:00). As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or [email protected]. (recorded 4/5 and 4/7/2017)1 hr 27 min
- Ep. 23: I Have No InformationEpisode 23 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss the view from Sweden - Delphi and the World (1:15), in pursuit of the secret - paradigm shift or baserate? (10:50), Hawaii dreaming (14:25), Obama/Trumpcare (16:25), seeking objectivity in a polarised era (24:20), a cacophony from the top of the toilet tank (48:00), to vet or not to vet - consequences of credibility (49:00). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wodrpress.com or [email protected] . (recorded 3/22/2017)1 hr 11 min
- Ep. 22: Citizen of NowhereEpisode 22 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott talk with superforecaster and assistant professor of quantitative sociology Sander Wagner about octopuses that can predict the future (1:02), about intergenerational mobility (2:30), about how living in four different countries has affected his perspective (16:53), about the upcoming elections in France (20:28), in the Netherlands (39:52), and in Germany (47:37), and about the future of Europe now that Donald Trump is president (57:19). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or [email protected]. (recorded 3/7/2017)1 hr 7 min
- Ep. 21: Did Trump Pivot?Episode 21 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott talk about what Wikipedia is really good at (0:29), whether Trump's joint address to Congress represents a meaningful pivot (6:50), the possibility of American military action against North Korea (14:01), and the theory that we're all living in simulation gone haywire (38:28). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or [email protected]. (recorded 3/1/2017)49 min
- Ep. 20: A month in the Age of TrumpEpisode 20 of the NonProphets podcast in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss the first month of the Age of Trump. Will we see a Trump Trillion dollar coin minted during his administration (1:45)? Limits on power: Judicial, Congress, Deep State (7:15). Town-halls and public opposition in the US and Romania (12:30). Sorting fact from fiction - information overload (26:10). Is the Administration unified/Who has the power(29:15)? Will a trillion dollar infrastructure plan be enacted this year (39:20)? Seven new earth like planets lead to a Bannon Fourth Turning discussion (45:20). They close with North Korea: Poisonous reality TV (51:00)? As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or [email protected]. (recorded 2/22/2017)1 hr 6 min
- Ep. 19: Trump Administration Best BetsEpisode 19 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss the odds that President Trump will be impeached (00:40), the odds that Trump will win the Nobel Peace Prize (12:24), which Trump administration official will be the first to leave office (14:39), what's wrong with New York Knicks management (18:30), whether the rumored Trump kompromat footage will appear on RedTube (25:24), whether Trump and Melania will split up (27:02), whether the Affordable Care Act will be repealed in 2017 (31:07), who the next justice to leave the Supreme Court will be (41:55), and whether the Trump administration will withdraw from the Iran deal (48:24). You can contact us at online at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or by e-mailing [email protected]. (recorded 2/12/2017)58 min
About NonProphets
From the publisher's feed
NonProphets is a weekly podcast about forecasting. The hosts became "superforecasters" based on the strength of their performances in the Good Judgment Project forecasting tournament, and they have continued to forecast on a wide array of topics with Good Judgment, Inc. In this podcast, they discuss their forecasting processes, and offer their analysis of questions on public forecasting platforms, such as the Good Judgment Open and Almanis, as well as other topics of interest to them. Most episodes end with a "Black Swan Hunt," in which they consider a momentous but low-probability event that may be more likely than many people think. Each episode is like the future: you can never be completely sure what will happen.
Feel free to reach us/contact us/praise us/harangue us/offer suggestions for forecasts or Black Swan Hunts by way of the following:
Blog: https://nonprophetspod.wordpress.com/
E-Mail: [email protected]
(Please note that the views expressed in this podcast are those of the speakers, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions, policies, or positions of any organization or its members, including any mentioned forecasting platform or organization. All content, including any written or spoken discussion, analysis, opinion, estimate, or, of course, forecast, reflects the judgment of the speaker or writer at a particular time. They are not promises or guarantees; rely on them at your own risk. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, and this podcast is intended to entertain (the audience and ourselves) only. Forecasts are not prophecies, and they may change substantially and/or frequently due to new facts, a new evaluation of old facts, or a myriad of other factors. In fact, it's helpful to revisit, re-evaluate, and, if necessary, revise forecasts with some frequency. You have been warned.)