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NonProphets
NonProphets episodes
- Ep. 8: A Discussion of a Listener E-Mail, Coordination Problems and Cultural Norms, US Election Season Best Bets, and Who Would Win in a Fight Between Biden and TrumpEpisode 8 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott answer a listener e-mail about the previous interview, the Fermi paradox, and the Great Filter (01:02), discuss coordination problems (6:18), update election probabilities and discuss the possible erosion of norms in US politics (15:37), and then break down some US Election "Best Bets" on public betting sites (32:04). We close with a discussion of the hypothetical Biden-Trump fight (57:44), and then pledge to discuss other topics, and not let Trump Smurf our podcast all the Trump. As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or [email protected]. (recorded 10/29/2016).1 hr 2 min
- Ep. 7: An Interview with Seth Baum, Ph.D., Executive Director of the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute, Followed by a Brief Look at US Politics, a Discussion of Two Technology-Related Forecasts, andEpisode 7 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott interview Seth Baum, Ph.D., Executive Director of the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute, about forecasting events that could have a significant impact on humanity. We then catch up on developments in the US election and explore a handful of future tech-related forecasts, including whether Atief will ever be left to die on Mars. We finish by previewing next week's "best bets" US politics podcast, in which we will look at election questions from political betting sites and submitted by listeners. (recorded 10/20/2016)1 hr 10 min
- Ep. 6: Updated Election Forecasts, A Stroll Through a Selection of PredictIt's Political Questions, Some Long-Range Social Forecasts, and We Revisit a Black Swan in View of Recent Events in US PoliticEpisode 6 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott update their US election forecasts, consider whether the prices of some politics-oriented PredictIt questions are too high, too low, or about right, and then discuss possible long-range events of broad social significance. The episode ends with a look at some possible US politics-related Black Swans. (recorded 10/14/2016).1 hr 12 min
- Ep. 5: A Discussion of the First Presidential Debates, How We Value Evidence, A Few of PredictIt's Election-Related Questions, and We Revisit a Recent Black Swan Due to New DevelopmentsEpisode 5 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott update their US election forecasts after the first debate, discuss what kind of evidence they find probative, and examine a handful of interesting US domestic politics-related questions in the PredictIt market. The episode ends with a revisit to a previous Black Swan given recent Saudi Arabia-related developments. (recorded 9/28/2016).1 hr 1 min
- Ep. 4: A Discussion of Recent Articles About Rationality and Gut Instinct, the Dunning-Kruger Effect, and a Wide-Ranging Black Swan Hunt involving Samuel Huntington and the US Supreme CourtEpisode 4 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss a handful of recent articles (links at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com) on rationality and decision making, as well as the Dunning-Kruger effect. The episode ends with a more broad Black Swan discussion involving US cultural conflicts and the upcoming election. With a special appearance by Sir Thomas More! (recorded 9/21/2016).1 hr 6 min
- Ep. 3: US Election Forecasts, A Probabilistic Discussion of Life's Deepest Mysteries, and a Black Swan Hunt in Mysterious North KoreaEpisode 3 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott check in on US election forecasts, then discuss some unusual forecasting questions hosted on Almanis and Good Judgment Open. The episode ends with a Black Swan Hunt involving Netflix's burgeoning rival, North Korea. (recorded 9/15/2016).1 hr
- Ep. 2: A Discussion of the Process of Forecasting in the Context of the US Election and Brexit Predictions, and a Middle East-Related Black Swan HuntEpisode 2 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief finishes an in media res anecdote about Coast to Coast AM with Art Bell before Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss the process of how they forecast in the context of the US election and the recent Brexit vote. Then, the guys close the podcast by going Black Swan hunting in Saudi Arabia with Robert. (recorded 9/7/2016)56 min
- Ep. 1: Introductions, Upcoming US and French Elections, and a Topical Inaugural Black Swan HuntEpisode 1 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott introduce themselves, and then discuss Trump's chances in the upcoming US election, as well as Marine Le Pen's chances in the slightly more distant upcoming French election. The episode ends with a Black Swan hunt involving current and past events in the US. (recorded 8/24/2016)1 hr 3 min
About NonProphets
From the publisher's feed
NonProphets is a weekly podcast about forecasting. The hosts became "superforecasters" based on the strength of their performances in the Good Judgment Project forecasting tournament, and they have continued to forecast on a wide array of topics with Good Judgment, Inc. In this podcast, they discuss their forecasting processes, and offer their analysis of questions on public forecasting platforms, such as the Good Judgment Open and Almanis, as well as other topics of interest to them. Most episodes end with a "Black Swan Hunt," in which they consider a momentous but low-probability event that may be more likely than many people think. Each episode is like the future: you can never be completely sure what will happen.
Feel free to reach us/contact us/praise us/harangue us/offer suggestions for forecasts or Black Swan Hunts by way of the following:
Blog: https://nonprophetspod.wordpress.com/
E-Mail: [email protected]
(Please note that the views expressed in this podcast are those of the speakers, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions, policies, or positions of any organization or its members, including any mentioned forecasting platform or organization. All content, including any written or spoken discussion, analysis, opinion, estimate, or, of course, forecast, reflects the judgment of the speaker or writer at a particular time. They are not promises or guarantees; rely on them at your own risk. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, and this podcast is intended to entertain (the audience and ourselves) only. Forecasts are not prophecies, and they may change substantially and/or frequently due to new facts, a new evaluation of old facts, or a myriad of other factors. In fact, it's helpful to revisit, re-evaluate, and, if necessary, revise forecasts with some frequency. You have been warned.)