Notes on the Week Ahead

Last summer, as part of my long-standing goal to get more cultured, I read the novel War and Peace by Leo Tolstoy. While many people make fun of its extravagant length, it is actually a great yarn, full of wisdom, intrigue and the flavor of old Russia.

Every stock market correction is different, but the equity market swoon of the fourth quarter of 2018 seems particularly unusual in the disconnect between the fundamental forces driving markets and the change in markets themselves. 

We wanted to wish you a happy holiday season from all of us here on the global Market Insights strategy team. Please tune in again next week for a new Notes on the week ahead.

Rudyard Kipling’s first qualification for manhood could equally be applied to the nerve required of the members of the Federal Open Market Committee, who meet this week to decide whether to hike interest rates for a fourth time this year.

Like the fishermen of old, many investors today are looking at relatively crude indicators such as recent market volatility or the shape of the yield curve to forecast the path for the U.S. economy and they have become worried by the behavior of both in recent weeks.