The sun has now risen three times since GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy assured Americans that they would wake up to a House Republican majority. Yet we still don’t know who won either chamber of Congress — and each day, the sun has set with the projected number of Republican seats dimming.

This morning, our colleague Steve Shephard even points out that while it may be unlikely, Democrats still actually have a very narrow path to holding the majority. There are a bunch of uncalled races where the results are expected to go one way or the other. But it all comes down to about 11 true toss-ups where forecasters really aren’t sure what will happen — and of those, Dems would need to win nine to maintain power.

Given that narrow path, Republicans are "still favored to take a narrow House majority,” Steve notes. But even in a best-case scenario, the GOP is looking at a mere 226 seats. A chaotic scenario where their majority consists of just a handful of seats is even more likely.

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Raghu Manavalan is the Host of POLITICO's Playbook Daily Briefing.
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