NOW and NEXT

Polling and seat projection numbers seem to be fluid, with less than 2 weeks to go before Election Day in Ontario. In three separate stories over the Victoria Day weekend, the Toronto Star says the Liberals could hold Ford Nation to a minority, the NDP is gaining at the expense of the Liberals, and the Liberals out poll the NDP but would finish third. So, we turn to John Wright, SVP at Maru Public Opinion to get some clarity on what's going on. He expects voting intentions firmed up while friends and families gather over the long holiday weekend.

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It seems the United Conservative Party of Alberta's not all that united. Jason Kenney's spectacular fall from grace suggests the "big tent" approach is an unmitigated failure for conservatives in Alberta. And this is in Canada's conservative heartland! You've got to think Kenney's meagre 51.4% support in this week's leadership review reflects a similar schism in the federal ranks. Today on the WRIT RACE, we're joined by Bob Reid, Principal at Broadway Strategy and Communications and Bob Richardson, Senior Counsel at National Public Relations to read the entrails and give us a sense of what this means for the conservative movement across Canada.

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Local candidates from four of the six provincial ridings in Scarborough gathered on May 18th to highlight the social and economic issues that are unique to this community. Official census numbers put the population at nearly 630 thousand, but local agencies and businesses estimate the real popluation is more than 800 thousand.  Public transit, affordable housing and healthcare top the list of issues. But poverty and the need for social assistance and support is the real issue. More than one in ten adults in Scarborough rely on a government welfare cheque or a disablity pension to live in one of the most expensive cities in Canada. I hosted and moderated the townhall discussion organized by the Scarborough Community Renewal Organization, Rotary in Scarborough and the Scarborough Business Association. Mitzie Hunter is a candidate for the Ontario Liberal Party in the riding of Scarborough Guildwood. Doly Begum is the NDP candidate in Scarborough Southwest. Priyan de Silva represents the Green Party in Scarborough Rouge-Park and Rane Vega is the New Blue Party of Ontario candidate in the riding of Scarborough-Agincourt. 

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More than one in ten adults living in Scarborough Ontario, survive month to month on a welfare cheque or the Ontario Disability Support Program. That's estimated to be close to 60,000 people in Canada's largest urban centre. In and of itself, that's a good sized city! For the first time during this election camapaign, Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner cited the cost of poverty in Ontario. It's a $33 billion dollar cost! It would rank among the most expensive line items in the provincial budget. With all the discussion around affordability, how can we afford to carry that cost?

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The Ontario Leaders' Debate did little to change much in the campaign except reinforce expectations. First, the format was a complete failure. Thanks to the media consortium, leaders' debates have been reduced to a complete waste of time. They do nothing to inform voters or the campaign. Because of that, Doug Ford didn't have to do much to do well. And he excelled at doing the least he could do. Mike Schreiner managed to punch above his weight - speed bagging Ford on a couple of occassions. He didn't do much damage but asserted himself as the leader who had a firm grasp on his files and the pulse in the province. Steven Del Duca got marks for exceeding expectations. But let's be real - he barely had to raise his foot off the ground to clear that bar.  And Andrea Horwath seemed to be running for Leader of the Opposition when she needs to be gunning for the big chair if she wants to keep her job as NDP Leader. The needles didn't change much, if at all but the knives are out already. Sabrina Nanji at the Queen's Park Observer says Horwath's lacklustre performance only lit a fire under the 901 movement. (NDP'ers ready to call for her resignation as soon as the polls close on June 2nd). Sabrina also teased a story she's working on that suggests the Liberals may be in the market for a new leader sooner than later. She's been in Del Duca's riding, talking to would-be voters and after a day of canvassing could only find a single person who KNEW Del Duca's name but wouldn't commit to voting for him.    

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Bet you didn't know that 16% of Scarborough's popluation relies on the Ontario Disability Support Program or an Ontario Works cheque every month. It's the highest level of "working poverty" in Canada. Scarborough is often neglected, if not ignore outright, when it comes to speaking truth to the politically powerful. In this episode, we talk to David Hardy, President of Hardy, Stevenson and Associates. He, along with members of the Scarborough Community Renewal Organization are attempting to catch the attention of all the major parties in this provincial campaign. It's long over due for Queen's Park to pay attention to the unique needs of the more than 600 thousand residents of Scarborough.

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National Post columnist Kelly McParland is of the opinion that "Pierre Poilievre is too big a risk to lead the Conservatives" McParland calls Poilievre's attack on Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem "reckless and dangerous". You might even call it the stuff of unhinged conspiracy theories. What a contrast between the CPC wannabe PM and Doug Ford, the wannabe re-elected premier of Ontario. Dull Doug's approach to the provincial campaign is working. He appears to be on track to lead another majority government. No drama. No meme material...so far. Campaign ain't over. But Ford's team has managed to plot a safe and steady track for Ontario PC leader. They've avoided any accusation of guilt by association with Poilievre. He's proving he can appeal to the conservative "core" and still win the general election. On the other hand, McParland says, "There is an imperiousness and inflexibility in (Poilievre's) performances that bodes poorly for someone who would need to bring a divided party together, and then do the same for a divided country."

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It's as if they've taken a few laps to get their legs and jockey for positioning and now the provincial parties in Ontario are preparing for the final lap bell to ring.  The party leaders are all in debate prep mode and the dead gallop for the final two weeks leading up to Election Day on June 2nd. So far, Doug Ford's run a quiet campaign with fewer media avails than the other leaders and fewer days shaking hands and kissing babies. And all indications suggest that's working. Ontario's okay with DULL.  The oppo parties will have to change that narrative if they hope to make any gains on Ford Nation.

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Doug Ford was, well, Git 'er Done Doug, running to stay out of his own way. Andrea Horwath was running to be Leader of the Opposition. Steven Del Duca was running to be Premier. And everyone was wishing Mike Schreiner was the Premier.

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There is no urgency, no call for change, no sense that any of the major parties speaks for Ontarians who are facing historic inflation rates at the pumps and in the grocery stores. COVID isn't an "issue" but the pandemic fatigue may well be playing into the lack of interest among voters. If this keeps up, Doug Ford sleep walks back into the Premier's Office.

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